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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


The Alchemist
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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Maybe a smidgen better... Still a long way to go prateptype_cat-imp.us_ma.jpgprateptype_cat-imp.us_ma (1).jpgprateptype_cat-imp.us_ma (2).jpgsfct-imp.us_ma.jpg

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Based on the pattern, I think that 20th timeframe is going to bare the most watching. The 16th still could surprise us. If we don’t score off of that potential, we’re on to February.

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Another day and another solution via the operational guidance. So the GFS and Canadian have trended toward the Euro in developing a low somewhere between I-20 and the Gulf Coast? Frankly I'm not sure with 5 days to go that these computer schemes are done moving around. Got to remember that all that Arctic air hasn't even materialize in real time so far. That chunk of very dense Artic airmass likey will not materialize until our Friday rainstorm moves well into Canada. My wag is to see what Saturday and Sunday solutions hold. Remember last weekend this storm was suggested for this Sunday into Monday. Now it's Monday into Tuesday.

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13 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Another day and another solution via the operational guidance. So the GFS and Canadian have trended toward the Euro in developing a low somewhere between I-20 and the Gulf Coast? Frankly I'm not sure with 5 days to go that these computer schemes are done moving around. Got to remember that all that Arctic air hasn't even materialize in real time so far. That chunk of very dense Artic airmass likey will not materialize until our Friday rainstorm moves well into Canada. My wag is to see what Saturday and Sunday solutions hold. Remember last weekend this storm was suggested for this Sunday into Monday. Now it's Monday into Tuesday.

And it’s also likely this past storm and the next one are really throwing a kink into the models. There’s been so much flip flopping the past few weeks, idk if anything past 72-96 hrs can be taken seriously.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It still didn't give us what we want but it was a lot colder. Just dry dry dry

I’ll really be curious to see what modeling looks like come Saturday. That precip shield looked so weird on the model and you’ve got to wonder if they’re struggling with some sort of feedback issue. 

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Models always struggle with overrunning precip here.  I go back to the Dec 2017 storm where a stream of moisture setup similar to what the Euro shows now.  We got 9".  Honestly... looking at the skew T, moisture is in the snow growth zone per 12z Euro from early Monday through Tuesday around Asheville.  Temp barely goes above freezing as well during that time period.  You can clearly see the models struggling with this, but I am giving WNC pretty good odds right now to see snow accumulation of some kind Monday and into Tuesday.

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Models always struggle with overrunning precip here.  I go back to the Dec 2017 storm where a stream of moisture setup similar to what the Euro shows now.  We got 9".  Honestly... looking at the skew T, moisture is in the snow growth zone per 12z Euro from early Monday through Tuesday around Asheville.  Temp barely goes above freezing as well during that time period.  You can clearly see the models struggling with this, but I am giving WNC pretty good odds right now to see snow accumulation of some kind Monday and into Tuesday.
Totally agree with this.... the difference with this time, the cold air will be here and not chasing.

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13 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Models always struggle with overrunning precip here.  I go back to the Dec 2017 storm where a stream of moisture setup similar to what the Euro shows now.  We got 9".  Honestly... looking at the skew T, moisture is in the snow growth zone per 12z Euro from early Monday through Tuesday around Asheville.  Temp barely goes above freezing as well during that time period.  You can clearly see the models struggling with this, but I am giving WNC pretty good odds right now to see snow accumulation of some kind Monday and into Tuesday.

This is the first time that I have been optimistic in 2 years. I think we have a good chance to at minimum to finally get at least an inch. 

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