WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 There has been another strong signal for a long track MDR hurricane, and we’re starting to see TC genesis in the basin again. Advisories are likely later today and 97L will almost certainly become Nigel this week. While everything else has bucked Niño climo this season, the prevalence of troughing/weak ridging to provide for MDR recurves has not. Future Nigel is likely only an interest to Bermuda. Discuss. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lee, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Margot, located over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have increased and become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Brown 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2023 Author Share Posted September 15, 2023 Expected to become the fourth major of the season. Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 1-min GOES-East visible imagery indicates improved organization of Invest 97, with a well-defined surface center forming since sunrise, along with large curved banding features. Thus the system is designated as a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, in closest agreement with the TAFB Dvorak classification. Our estimate of initial motion is northwestward at 10 kt, though this is uncertain due to the recent center formation. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should be the dominant steering mechanism during the next several days, sending the system on a steady northwestward track. For a first forecast, guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the official forecast lies near or west of the model consensus. Despite the good model agreement, there is still some long-range uncertainty in how far west this system moves, which partially depends on the strength of the subtropical ridge in the wake of Tropical Storm Margot. The depression is forecast to gradually intensify over the next couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear and the initial broad cyclone structure could provide a check on the intensification rate. By early next week, this system is forecast to move over near record warm sea-surface temperatures for the region in light shear conditions. It probably sounds like a broken record at this point in the season, but rapid intensification is a significant possibility, and the official forecast could be conservative below. The intensity forecast is near or above the intensity consensus, only leveling off at 120 hours due to gradual SST cooling and the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles, as suggested by the HAFS model suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Churchill/Blake/Lamers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 50 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season With zero chance of a US impact. The end of the 00z Euro does have another MDR storm which would be in a more favorable spot to make it further West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 Definitely some worries for Bermuda here. The consistent active pattern in the CONUS has acted as a pretty good "block" for us here thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 Was hoping this would come right up my fanny..... oh well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2023 Author Share Posted September 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Was hoping this would come right up my fanny..... oh well Never had a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 The MDR is fools gold for landfalls this year. Lee was the closest chance we had. That being said this will continue train of cyclones kicking the Turkey shit out of El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 Struggling so far. If it doesn’t become a major that’d be huge for my peak season forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 This will be designated Tropical Storm Nigel at 11pm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Hopefully it goes wide right OTS. Will we surpass 200 ACE points this hurricane season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Lots of virgin warm water along its path. Recurve around 55 west. Should produce some swell for the east coast, but after Franklin and lee it will hardly be noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 9 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said: Hopefully it goes wide right OTS. Will we surpass 200 ACE points this hurricane season? Values above average for the main three areas are circled in red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Getting “the look” this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Values above average for the main three areas are circled in red Everything above normal. Impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 It’s kind of an unconventional way (looks like it sucked in dry air vs unusual formation through subsidence) but Nigel definitely appears to be showing an eye this morning. Given the eye size and dry air in northern part of the circulation, RI should be limited. I think cat 3 is the ceiling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 RI forecast gone wrong. You just never know with these. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Ahhhh, the old truck tire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 Love the tractor tire hurricanes. Probably keeps this below MH status too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Love the tractor tire hurricanes. Probably keeps this below MH status too. Idk that eye has cleared out considerably and cloud tops have continued to cool. Interested to see what the plane finds here shortly. Has a shot at cat 3 over the next 24 hours or so imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, hlcater said: Idk that eye has cleared out considerably and cloud tops have continued to cool. Interested to see what the plane finds here shortly. Has a shot at cat 3 over the next 24 hours or so imo. Yeah it does have a shot. I have a rooting interest against it though lol. My peak forecast is spot on so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 The eye has constricted some over the last few hours and outflow has improved. Looks like the dry air/shear issues are over and it's intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 First pass suggests current intensity of 90mph is about right. Need to wait for it to sample the southern eyewall, but they got 75 kts in the northern eyewall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Very pretty satellite. Obviously not a high end storm but great symmetry, outflow, and large eye 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Latest SHIPS has AHI of zero, not at all annular, but I see only outflow channels, not feeder bands. If it could close the eyewall on the E side it would at least look annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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