Category Five Hurricane Lee

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

06z GFS decimates the northeast...

6Z GFS ensembles are generally well E of the model.  I see a single member with a NY/New England landfall.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

6Z GFS ensembles are generally well E of the model.  I see a single member with a NY/New England landfall.

We really need some interesting weather. Hopefully this is the one but the ridge isn't going to be in the east a long time.

[WxWatcher007]

Hits are definitely outliers at this point, though I still caution everyone to stay away from locking anything in this far out, even as OTS remains favored currently. 

Looking at 95L this morning, it's continuing to organize. Certainly on track to become a TC by midweek despite some shear. 

[jconsor]

The upper level pattern across the eastern US and western Atlantic this weekend into next week is far from set in stone.  We need to watch for the potential for a trough split, which models often don't handle well until inside 5 days.

If the the southern piece of the trough cuts off across the SE US by this weekend, and the ridge over the NW Atlantic/SE Canada is strong enough to resist troughs in the northern stream from progressing eastward much, that could block a typical recurve out to sea.

6Z GEFS and past few GFS runs are now hinting at another trough split mid to late next week from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley. A trough in that position along with an anomalous NW Atlantic ridge has in the past steered many infamous SW Atlantic hurricanes toward a landfall from NC to New England.
 

 

[yoda]

What is FourCastNet?  Never heard of it before until you tweeted it above

[Windspeed]

Hits are definitely outliers at this point, though I still caution everyone to stay away from locking anything in this far out, even as OTS remains favored currently. 
Looking at 95L this morning, it's continuing to organize. Certainly on track to become a TC by midweek despite some shear. 

This mid-to-upper flow across the MDR is certainly not El Niño'ee at present. The shear that's there is due to moderate trades and positioning Azores ridge. There is definitely westward low-level motion south of the wave axis. Some banding features evolving on the northern periphery as it looks like folding is occurring. Still some dry air in the mid-levels, but nothing that should prevent slow and steady development. It is worth noting that both globals have a TS to minimal hurricane in 48-72 hours. So we would expect to see a low-level vort get going relatively soon.

[WxWatcher007]

[Wmsptwx]

Gonna suck to waste this in an Atlantic fish storm 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Gonna suck to waste this in an Atlantic fish storm 

Depends on who you ask.  Growing up, I always imagined 1938 happening that year, especially after Belle got me 'nerding' on hurricanes.  Hurricane Ike seemed an adventure, except the following year there wasn't a beach house to go to in Galveston the next year.  But now, I'm not looking forward to a week without AC and CPAP (I suddenly got kind of old), I doubt most people look forward to damaged homes, dead people, a week or more with no power.  I think of 'fish' storms as nice ACE generators, and people on X/Twitter posting cool satellite animations.

 

Speaking of, on visible loops, 95L looks close to closing a low around 11N, 33 or 34W.  I am not seeing dry air caused arc clouds like I did yesterday.  Outflow restricted to the E, but looking good elsewhere.

[Windspeed]

Gonna suck to waste this in an Atlantic fish storm 

lol.. *shaking head*

In all seriousness, It would be awesome if potential Lee becomes a classic long-tracking intense CV hurricane, but hits nothing. The ACE off this storm alone could push us into above normal territory for the remainder of the season, which would be phenomenal during a moderate-to-strong El Niño year.

[StantonParkHoya]

43 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Gonna suck to waste this in an Atlantic fish storm 

Easy to say except for the people it impacts. These types of posts shouldn’t be allowed.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Easy to say except for the people it impacts. These types of posts shouldn’t be allowed.

Be real, folks love extreme and dangerous weather…especially folks here on a weather board.   Most folks here would be giddy if this becomes an east coast threat. Doesn’t make one a bad or evil person, or a disaster monger. It’s just the nature of the beast. Extreme/exciting weather is a rush for weather freaks.
 

And it’s not in anybody’s control, no matter how much you wish it to hit, or wish it away. So it makes no difference if you hope for it, or not, because if it’s gonna hit, and destroy stuff, it’s gonna hit.  Nobody can will it either way. 

[Wmsptwx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Be real, folks love extreme and dangerous weather…especially folks here on a weather board.   Most folks here would be giddy if this becomes an east coast threat. Doesn’t make one a bad or evil person, or a disaster monger. It’s just the nature of the beast. Extreme/exciting weather is a rush for weather freaks.
 

And it’s not in anybody’s control, no matter how much you wish it to hit, or wish it away. So it makes no difference if you hope for it, or not, because if it’s gonna hit, and destroy stuff, it’s gonna hit.  Nobody can will it either way. 

They just like to shame and be dishonest about it lol.

[Windspeed]

They just like to shame and be dishonest about it lol.

You know there are plenty of folks who are fascinated with TCs that do not want the destruction they can bring. Not everyone is a storm chaser. There are plenty of meteorological professionals and enthusiasts here. But obviously, the threat drives overwhelming interest if something does target land. Which makes perfect sense. A lot do not care unless a TC threatens their neck of the woods.

[Windspeed]

12z GFS is wasting no time. A hurricane by 54 hrs would be impressive for a global.

[Windspeed]

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah…let’s leave the morality debates and wishcasting elsewhere and focus on the meteorology here, please. 

On topic, those op runs that failed to do much with this a few days ago are a distant memory. It really does look like all elements are aligning for a significant hurricane, and for the folks in the Antilles this increases confidence that 95L gains latitude enough to clear the area. 

[olafminesaw]

I've noticed the GFS has a bias for making hurricanes way too large. Can anyone back that up? Not really going to matter if it stays off shore, but if it does approach the East Coast, it's something to keep in mind as the hype machine gets going.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

You see that and it looks so uncertain wrt the extent and orientation of that mid-latitude troughing. I do think the setup lends itself to 1) OTS 2) NC points north scrape/hit 3) Nova Scotia scrape/hit. I think a land impact is made much less likely given the higher chance that this doesn’t drive further west into the Bahamas before a turn, at least as currently modeled. 

[WxWatcher007]

Also, it’s still ten days out at least! A long way to go with this one, where you’d hope we have a better sense of the troughing and ridge in about 5 days. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Verbatim close call NE USA and then Nova Scotia.  It looks like the GFS ensembles are again going to be generally E of the op.  If anyone has access to the control run at 240 hours, I'd like to know if this a resolution issue.

[WxWatcher007]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure has formed 
from the tropical wave centered about 700 miles west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. The low-level circulation has become better 
defined since yesterday, with increasing organization in the shower 
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to 
become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in a day or two. 
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. For 
additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro is much stronger than the 0Z and is a beast (930s SLP) north of the Caribbean.

[cptcatz]

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Fortunately for CONUS it appears about to recurve in the run.

[cptcatz]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Fortunately for CONUS it appears about to recurve in the run.

Yeah, still, it's not often you see Euro going to 917 in a long range forecast.  This thing is gonna be a quite something.

[WxWatcher007]

Troughing galore still on the Euro—just a giant broom sweeping this out. Earlier caveats on operational models remain. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yeah, still, it's not often you see Euro going to 917 in a long range forecast.  This thing is gonna be a quite something.

Indeed! The potential for this to be a huge ACE producer along with providing lots of beautiful satellite pics is way up there.

 12Z UKMET stronger than 0Z and is a little N of prior run, but it is ~300-350 miles WNW/W of the Euro/CMC/GFS at 168 (end of run) implying not a guarantee it would miss the CONUS, especially NE, had it gone out further:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.2N  39.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 06.09.2023   36  13.8N  41.3W     1010            25
    1200UTC 06.09.2023   48  14.4N  44.5W     1007            33
    0000UTC 07.09.2023   60  15.7N  46.4W     1007            39
    1200UTC 07.09.2023   72  16.9N  49.0W     1005            34
    0000UTC 08.09.2023   84  17.8N  51.8W     1005            32
    1200UTC 08.09.2023   96  18.9N  55.3W     1005            34
    0000UTC 09.09.2023  108  19.9N  58.2W     1005            31
    1200UTC 09.09.2023  120  20.2N  60.9W     1004            41
    0000UTC 10.09.2023  132  21.1N  63.8W     1000            48
    1200UTC 10.09.2023  144  21.7N  65.6W      997            51
    0000UTC 11.09.2023  156  22.8N  67.5W      994            61
    1200UTC 11.09.2023  168  23.7N  69.1W      993            57

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z JMA, admittedly inferior for the tropics, has an obviously worrisome position at 192 in the Caribbean just S of DR.

The inferior JMA (12Z), unlike the worrisome run from 24 hours ago going into the Caribbean to just S of the DR, is ~500 miles NE of that run and is recurving near 65W.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS is similar to recent runs with track consensus but is even stronger when averaging the members. I don't recall ever seeing a stronger average for an as yet to form TC.