NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The 12z NAM is looking dry for Saturday night. Looks like an extended break before the actual low tracks nearby on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Sure speeds it up-mostly done by 8pm Sat Most of the models have the actual low tracking nearby on Sunday so rain would eventually come back in at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Sure speeds it up-mostly done by 8pm Sat Meanwhile the rgem is much slower. Doesn't even get in until late saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos. It's the long range NAM and the same holds true now as it does during Winter with its accuracy. But it does at least show the storm tracking well inland and so that adds support for the Western models. The ECMWF is still an Eastern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, mob1 said: Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos. Been the rule the past few winters. Even within 48 hours we can't get model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Icons been shifting east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Icons been shifting east Looks a lot like the 00z euro overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks a lot like the 00z euro overnight Gfs looks to be heading the way as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs looks to be heading the way as well The storm makes landfall in North Carolina on the 12z GFS as a mid-high end tropical storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs looks to be heading the way as well Yup. Trending towards euro. It develops the low better down south then the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Trending towards euro. It develops the low better down south then the euro Then there's the cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Gfs with the ridiculous cutoff as the low stalls over the delmarva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Been the rule the past few winters. Even within 48 hours we can't get model consensus I think the last time the Euro locked into a KU at 120 hrs and never wavered was Nemo back in 2013. It’s rare for the Euro or any other model to get the right solution beyond the 0-72 time frame. We can remember how the Euro had the heaviest snows from DC to Philly in January 2016 the day before. But the NAM won that round showing the jackpot closer to NYC. The CMC nailed the late January 2021 snowstorm from a week out while the other models were more OTS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Then there's the cmc That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before. Yeah it crushes jersey shore to Li with 6-8+ now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before. Maybe the big cold pool to our east in the wake of the recent hurricanes isn’t allowing a strong enough WAR for the more inland runner the CMC had been showing? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 UKMET is well east for saturday. Just brushes the Jersey shore and LI with a little light rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: UKMET is well east for saturday. Just brushes the Jersey shore and LI with a little light rain. Not surprising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12z GEFS shifted South and East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 This one is gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Euro more developed with the low off the southeast coast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Euro swings and misses on the rain Saturday but might go the gfs route here with low down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro swings and misses on the rain Saturday but might go the gfs route here with low down south Ends up being a brush with second low….very little rain outside the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ends up being a brush with second low….very little rain outside the beaches Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either gonna get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know. It wouldn't take much for the eastern models to swing heavy rain back to our area but the other models could just as easily keep trending offshore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either gonna get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know. CMC took a jump east from its earlier runs and is likely correcting to the other guidance. NAM is out of range at this juncture.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Still some really wet members in there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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