MillvilleWx Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm hoping for some patented Millville snow maps this winter - and I mean this with sincerity, you are probably one of if not the most accurate forecasters when it comes to snow. I also appreciate the detailed analysis that goes with it...what did you do...learn from Horst or something? Thanks so much for the kind words. I try really hard to utilize everything I've ever learned about winter weather forecasting (Eric Horst is a HUGE part of that) to give the best forecast possible, including more mesoscale and microscale climate focus so people can be prepared. Definitely never going to be perfect, but I try hard to see if I can predict mother nature. Have I ever told you how much of a B**** that is? lol I've been humbled plenty, but I can't wait to strap in and be along for the ride again! Like old times 6 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: Have you settled on a town? Wife and I are very likely going with Frederick, MD since my office is in College Park. It'll be a bit of a commute, but I don't mind commutes at all. I did the same distance and time to my first job ever outside college. I'll be making WAY more now than I did then. I think I'll be okay haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thanks so much for the kind words. I try really hard to utilize everything I've ever learned about winter weather forecasting (Eric Horst is a HUGE part of that) to give the best forecast possible, including more mesoscale and microscale climate focus so people can be prepared. Definitely never going to be perfect, but I try hard to see if I can predict mother nature. Have I ever told you how much of a B**** that is? lol I've been humbled plenty, but I can't wait to strap in and be along for the ride again! Like old times Wife and I are very likely going with Frederick, MD since my office is in College Park. It'll be a bit of a commute, but I don't mind commutes at all. I did the same distance and time to my first job ever outside college. I'll be making WAY more now than I did then. I think I'll be okay haha Nice. That’s about 45 minutes from me. I’ll have to meet you down there and buy a few rounds to ensure the south mountain qpf jackpot stays strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thanks so much for the kind words. I try really hard to utilize everything I've ever learned about winter weather forecasting (Eric Horst is a HUGE part of that) to give the best forecast possible, including more mesoscale and microscale climate focus so people can be prepared. Definitely never going to be perfect, but I try hard to see if I can predict mother nature. Have I ever told you how much of a B**** that is? lol I've been humbled plenty, but I can't wait to strap in and be along for the ride again! Like old times Wife and I are very likely going with Frederick, MD since my office is in College Park. It'll be a bit of a commute, but I don't mind commutes at all. I did the same distance and time to my first job ever outside college. I'll be making WAY more now than I did then. I think I'll be okay haha I have to travel to Frederick pretty much every week. Braddock Heights is a great place to get the best of N Md but not deal with City life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 So what is this about more smoke? I just caught the end of the weather out of Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, so I guess maybe some will not get it. Guy said nothing hazardous this time. Williamsport is a very nice low PM32 at 7:45p and I hate to think it will be much higher soon. Another smoke question: Does anyone has a good site and/or link for Canadian smoke maps? I cannot believe I am asking this -- I am interested in weather but no weenie -- but here I am, wanting to be able to check on Canadian smoke. Maybe someday we will look back and remember these little changes in habits we would not have made on our own as signs of worsening climate change. I hope not but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 .3” for the day. Wind just got up to 36 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 .22 rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 My brother's friend in India measured with legit scientific instruments 97 with dew point 89 this last month. Heat index at 140Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: My brother's friend in India measured with legit scientific instruments 97 with dew point 89 this last month. Heat index at 140 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I was just thinking today how glad I was that the sticky heat wasn't here yet and how I wished we could skip it this year. Just the thought of a 149 heat index makes me feel weak. I didn't know it went that high. I guess I have to be grateful to be here in good old Williamsport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Low of 47 this Am. The incredible 40's run continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Low of 47 this Am. The incredible 40's run continues. Was 48 here . This might turnout to be a summer without the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Was 48 here . This might turnout to be a summer without the heat. We had dew this Am which is a step toward more warmer feeling temps though the GFS has many getting into the 40's again Sunday AM. Speaking of the GFS, it keeps trying to set up a SER then kicks the can down the road. It has done it for weeks now. The Southwest and South Central and US are taking the brunt in the midterm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Some pretty big differences in Mesos's for tomorrow AM but most have a decent band of rain in the LSV at this point. Some also show it fairly wet in the east LSV on Sat but most progs are not so bad over there. The NWS took the bait though with 40-50% chances of showers and thunderstorms Sat Afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some pretty big differences in Mesos's for tomorrow AM but most have a decent band of rain in the LSV at this point. Some also show it fairly wet in the east LSV on Sat but most progs are not so bad over there. The NWS took the bait though with 40-50% chances of showers and thunderstorms Sat Afternoon. Nws mentioned this: Most likely rainfall tonight into Friday should be between 0.1 and 0.5 inches based on the latest HREF. However, tsra over the eastern part of the forecast area could produce localized amounts of 2+ inches Friday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Low of 56 here and .07" of rain yesterday. House feels great this morning with the windows open all night. Looks like a fair portion of us will be in line for some decent rains tomorrow. Hoping the Saturday stuff stays well to the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 USGS greatly expanded D1 conditions in PA but kept their Orange markers off the board for now, probably will be there next week without copious rains (which the globals keep suggesting are possible with a wandering ULL nearby.) Astute observation in their write up mentioning that those already in D1 that received good rains basically kept it from getting worse vs. improving. Hand in hand with our MA sisters and brothers on this one. Northeast Drought Summary A storm system developed over the Midwest during the weekend and moved across the Northeast Monday into Tuesday bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the interior Northeast, warranting targeted improvements to the drought depiction in portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and interior New England. Otherwise, the storm system did little to improve antecedent dryness, acting only to halt ongoing deterioration, with the help of below average maximum temperatures for this week. In areas that experienced below average 7-day rainfall, expansion of abnormally dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions is warranted, particularly across southern portions of the Northeast. 7-day average stream flows have fallen below the 10th percentile of the historical distribution for this period and soil moisture continues to decline. Full Summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Low temperatures last night continued to run about 5 degrees below seasonal averages with most spots in the mid 50's. High temperatures over the next week look to remain slightly below normal levels across Chester County as our chilly spring continues. Shower chances increase again tomorrow PM into Saturday with more showers possible by Monday night as we continue to try to cut into our rainfall deficit. Records for today: High 97 (1945) / Low 44 (1933) / Rain 2.80" (1908) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Some smoke in the sky but otherwise a beautiful day out there - my low overnight was 57. (official low in Lanco was 58) This was written yesterday afternoon, but here's a good writeup from MU on the upcoming pattern: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Low of 47 this Am. The incredible 40's run continues. A double digit difference in temps between us this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: A double digit difference in temps between us this morning. Yea, the lows out this way really dropped last night. There was some low to mid 40's just N/W of us in some higher elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 55 was my low. Hope we get more rain tomorrow - if so that's a really, really good week of moisture. Not enough to put a huge dent into the issues but hopefully a good bit to help the area crops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: Was 48 here . This might turnout to be a summer without the heat. Well it was the winter without cold. You expected different? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: 55 was my low. Hope we get more rain tomorrow - if so that's a really, really good week of moisture. Not enough to put a huge dent into the issues but hopefully a good bit to help the area crops. I am hoping tomorrow AM is a dupe of Wed with double totals. HRRR has a shield of rain over the LSV and SE PA from AM rush hour through an hour or so after lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 USGS greatly expanded D1 conditions in PA but kept their Orange markers off the board for now, probably will be there next week without copious rains (which the globals keep suggesting are possible with a wandering ULL nearby.) Astute observation in their write up mentioning that those already in D1 that received good rains basically kept it from getting worse vs. improving. Hand in hand with our MA sisters and brothers on this one. Northeast Drought Summary A storm system developed over the Midwest during the weekend and moved across the Northeast Monday into Tuesday bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the interior Northeast, warranting targeted improvements to the drought depiction in portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and interior New England. Otherwise, the storm system did little to improve antecedent dryness, acting only to halt ongoing deterioration, with the help of below average maximum temperatures for this week. In areas that experienced below average 7-day rainfall, expansion of abnormally dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions is warranted, particularly across southern portions of the Northeast. 7-day average stream flows have fallen below the 10th percentile of the historical distribution for this period and soil moisture continues to decline. Full Summary So we basically need Agnes liteSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: So we basically need Agnes lite Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Knowing we need to get 12.49/92=.14" a day just to break even during the entirety of the summer months (June/July/August) I think we would indeed need something dramatic to catch up area wide. Even if it rains 1/2" on a Monday, if it does not rain again until Saturday, we have actually added .06 the deficit at that point...hard to break out without either several heavy events in a row or a big event. Sort of like trying to pay off a credit card with 20% interest by paying the min payment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, Voyager said: Well it was the winter without cold. You expected different? By the way...I posted a link in a post I made earlier this morning to a "Special Weather Discussion" released by the director of Met. at Millersville - Tamaqua made the discussion! The met mentioned that the Tamaqua area had about 5" of rain the other day, making them the big winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Knowing we need to get 12.49/92=.14" a day just to break even during the entirety of the summer months (June/July/August) I think we would indeed need something dramatic to catch up area wide. Even if it rains 1/2" on a Monday, if it does not rain again until Saturday, we have actually added .06 the deficit at that point...hard to break out without either several heavy events in a row or a big event. Sort of like trying to pay off a credit card with 20% interest by paying the min payment. That is a fantastic analogy. As someone who years ago was able to free themselves from thousands of dollars in debt, I can so relate to that comment. You can fall into debt (including a rainfall deficit) but you have to work like hell to get out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is a fantastic analogy. As someone who years ago was able to free themselves from thousands of dollars in debt, I can so relate to that comment. You can fall into debt (including a rainfall deficit) but you have to work like hell to get out of it. Hopefully we are not falling into more debt when Sept 1 hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Some smoke in the sky but otherwise a beautiful day out there - my low overnight was 57. (official low in Lanco was 58) This was written yesterday afternoon, but here's a good writeup from MU on the upcoming pattern: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php Punting fireworks and 90's! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 perfect day for another Bears win.......its beautiful out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: perfect day for another Bears win.......its beautiful out! Shepard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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