2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Since gradients exists with every atmospheric phenomenon, including air pressure and SSTs, you can think of the ENSO ONI like the low pressure off of the east coast and the SSTS over the west PAC like the high pressure over the mid west...same type of system. Well, given that this is an el nino, the high ONI is analogous to a deep area of low pressure off of the east coast. But we would want to see lower SSTS over the west PAC to have a really strong SYSTEM, just like we would a strong high pressure over the mid west. But this year, we have a weak high (warm W PAC SSTS), so the gradient isn't there. Its like having the impressive 961mb low (ONI) with a paltry 1000mb high.

Sort of related, but years ago (like pre 2010) I was talking to one of our long range guys and he said something to me that always resonated. We were going into La Nina at the time. The so called "numbers" weren't reflecting Nina, but he said we are already in it. I sort of looked at him and said what do you mean? So then he showed me...."look at the ridging near the SE...look where the tropical forcing has been....look at the easterly anomalies taking shape over the tropical Pacific."  He replied, "the atmosphere is trying to tell you something."  That always stuck with me. It's true. You'll see the global patterns shuffle around before any designation from the CPC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sort of related, but years ago (like pre 2010) I was talking to one of our long range guys and he said something to me that always resonated. We were going into La Nina at the time. The so called "numbers" weren't reflecting Nina, but he said we are already in it. I sort of looked at him and said what do you mean? So then he showed me...."look at the ridging near the SE...look where the tropical forcing has been....look at the easterly anomalies taking shape over the tropical Pacific."  He replied, "the atmosphere is trying to tell you something."  That always stuck with me. It's true. You'll see the global patterns shuffle around before any designation from the CPC.

Opposite this year haha.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Opposite this year haha.

When did CPOC designate it Nino? I feel like we were getting Nino conditions a few months ago, but yeah the numbers this year also rapidly changed around March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When did CPOC designate it Nino? I feel like we were getting Nino conditions a few months ago, but yeah the numbers this year also rapidly changed around March.

How so?

[CoastalWx]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How so?

In NAMR, we started popping the ridge out west-trough out east pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In NAMR, we started popping the ridge out west-trough out east pattern. 

I wouldn't notice since I check out for the summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Weather is the product of gradients, not static measurements...remember that. We only care about the anomalous numbers due to their correlation with the stronger gradients and the fact that they look pretty in our dorky record books, but in and of themselves, they are pretty useless.....powerful shortwaves with no baroclinicity, so to speak.

IF A ≠ B  ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B )

IF A = B  ... nothin happens.

That simple.

 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

IF A ≠ B  ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B )

IF A = B  ... nothin happens.

That simple.

 

Wonderfully put…incredibly simplistic for your normal style…I like it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Wonderfully put…incredibly simplistic for your normal style…I like it. 

Word!

... buuuut, unfortunately, there's ad infinitum that exists between the A ≠ B at one end, and the A = B at the other.

Here, I'll explain -

ha!  gotcha

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, Scott ... I've often sensed that the hemisphere starts acting like it's related to the ensuing ENSO states - not the other way around.

Hense the whiplash heat events, air and sea, ... like the hot house took off prior to the tropical Pac oceanic registry ?  yup ...just an example...

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, Scott ... I've often sensed that the hemisphere starts acting like it's related to the ensuing ENSO states - not the other way around.

Hense the whiplash heat events, air and sea, ... like the hot house took off prior to the tropical Pac oceanic registry ?  yup ...just an example...

If that’s the case, then can we say the weather drives the ENSO, and not the ENSO driving the weather? 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

If that’s the case, then can we say the weather drives the ENSO, and not the ENSO driving the weather? 

Something like this … yeah  

you know, I keep coming back to this whacky notion that just maybe we’ve got it sort of backwards. El Niños and La Ninas are actually a mechanism that corrects the planetary mode. 

has to do with harmonic feedbacks. Like the ocean responds to an atmospheric triggering influence, then that adds back to the atmosphere … It builds up until it the atmosphere sort of “trips over itself” The new paradigm abandons/severely decouples so much from the previous state the ocean begins to cool - lost sea wind/ONI relationship. The new paradigm is La Niña … new cycle is born. 

I always figured this for hypotheses… But, somebody posted something a while ago when I proffer this idea earlier in the spring …saying the idea matches some previous scientific research into the matter/papered work, so it may already be on the drafting table. 

[MJO812]

On 8/1/2023 at 8:36 PM, WinterWolf said:

SNE doesn’t want a 09-10 redux that’s for sure, unless we can get just a tad less blocking this go around…? 

I'm going with 100 inches NYC

[roardog]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm going with 100 inches NYC

Over the course of how many years? lol

[rclab]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm going with 100 inches NYC

 

24 minutes ago, roardog said:

Over the course of how many years? lol

Good morning Anthony, roardog. Unfortunately five borough climate wisdom points to a multi cold season tally. The question, personally, for me is; if I start with the 22/23 cold season how many more must accrue before the magic 100 is reached and will I still be here? Stay well and hopeful, as always.

[DavisStraight]

I saw one of those winter forecasts on Yahoo home page the other day, not sure who wrote it. They had the Northeast below normal cold and snowy. I know they're not worth the paper they're printed on but I haven't seen one of those forecasts predict that for us for a few years now.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Something like this … yeah  

you know, I keep coming back to this whacky notion that just maybe we’ve got it sort of backwards. El Niños and La Ninas are actually a mechanism that corrects the planetary mode. 

has to do with harmonic feedbacks. Like the ocean responds to an atmospheric triggering influence, then that adds back to the atmosphere … It builds up until it the atmosphere sort of “trips over itself” The new paradigm abandons/severely decouples so much from the previous state the ocean begins to cool - lost sea wind/ONI relationship. The new paradigm is La Niña … new cycle is born. 

I always figured this for hypotheses… But, somebody posted something a while ago when I proffer this idea earlier in the spring …saying the idea matches some previous scientific research into the matter/papered work, so it may already be on the drafting table. 

Would make sense given the self-destructive nature of ENSO...definite "chicken or egg" deal...

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I saw one of those winter forecasts on Yahoo home page the other day, not sure who wrote it. They had the Northeast below normal cold and snowy. I know they're not worth the paper they're printed on but I haven't seen one of those forecasts predict that for us for a few years now.  

It was the Old Farmer's Almanac.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Yeah it’s going balls out lol. Hopefully that, Jerry’s squirrels, and Steve’s bees nests are correct. 

[weatherwiz]

23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Sort of related, but years ago (like pre 2010) I was talking to one of our long range guys and he said something to me that always resonated. We were going into La Nina at the time. The so called "numbers" weren't reflecting Nina, but he said we are already in it. I sort of looked at him and said what do you mean? So then he showed me...."look at the ridging near the SE...look where the tropical forcing has been....look at the easterly anomalies taking shape over the tropical Pacific."  He replied, "the atmosphere is trying to tell you something."  That always stuck with me. It's true. You'll see the global patterns shuffle around before any designation from the CPC.

I love this story. That makes a whole world of sense. I think it's too easy to get caught up in numbers. Numbers aren't really going to tell a story, especially when dealing with some of the index measures like ONI which are smoothed and averaged over a longer period of time. Having an understanding and ability to assess the atmosphere like your coworker did will give you more clues then just about anything else. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The old farmers almanac , Monsanto now publishes that ..right 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I love this story. That makes a whole world of sense. I think it's too easy to get caught up in numbers. Numbers aren't really going to tell a story, especially when dealing with some of the index measures like ONI which are smoothed and averaged over a longer period of time. Having an understanding and ability to assess the atmosphere like your coworker did will give you more clues then just about anything else. 

There is this younger, "know it all" type on Facebook that just can't wrap his mind around ONI and why the lagged nature of it is important. Just convinced el nino has been so much stronger than it has been because he obsesses over the daily SST numbers. One day while he was mocking me, he pointed out how "lagged" the ONI is, as if it invalidates it.....I was just shaking my head...like, finally you get it (sarcasm).

He's is one of those kids that just scoffs at CPC and feels his own criteria should be used to define ENSO. Classic dearth of perspective that too often an inherent element of youth.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is this younger, "know it all" type on Facebook that just can't wrap his mind around ONI and why the lagged nature of it is important. Just convinced el nino has been so much stronger than it has been because he obsesses over the daily SST numbers. One day When he was mocking me, he pointed out how "lagged" the ONI is, as if it invalidates it.....I was just shaking my head...like, finally you get it (sarcasm).

I might have an idea of who you're referring too  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I might have an idea of who you're referring too  

 

Initials RV

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Initials RV

yup LOL 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup LOL 

 

You have no idea how nauseating he can be....he DMs me...nice kid, but his viewpoint is so consumed by a myriad of compensatory defense mechanisms for which he has so little insight as a byproduct of his age. The end result is that I am condemned to pay for his slew of perceived inadequacies in life....f8%$. This as a product of the internet....this deranged co-dependency of sort with a surplus of information for which certain individuals just aren't equipped to cope with. What we end up with is an invaluable outlet for folks with MH and dependency issues, like the weather, actually ends up being intorwoven into and thus symptomatic or the dysfunction.

And we all pay for it-

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have no idea how nauseating he can be....he DMs me...nice kid, but his viewpoint is so consumed by a myriad of compensatory defense mechanisms for which he has so little insight as a byproduct of his age. The end result is that I am condemned to pay for his slew of perceived inadequacies in life....f8%$. This as a product of the internet....this deranged co-dependency of sort with a surplus of information for which certain individuals just aren't equipped to cope with. What we end up with is an invaluable outlet for folks with MH and dependency issues, like the weather, actually ends up being intorwoven into and thus symptomatic or the dysfunction.

And we all pay for it-

I totally get it. I've gotten some messages here and there too or at least comments on posts. Very nice kid and it seems like he's been through alot personally (but I mean who hasn't?) and not sure if that factors into things. Certainly quite smart, but gives off the arrogant "I know everything" vibes. It's not even fun having a discussion with people like that because it just turns into a "you're wrong blah blah". 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I totally get it. I've gotten some messages here and there too or at least comments on posts. Very nice kid and it seems like he's been through alot personally (but I mean who hasn't?) and not sure if that factors into things. Certainly quite smart, but gives off the arrogant "I know everything" vibes. It's not even fun having a discussion with people like that because it just turns into a "you're wrong blah blah". 

 

Yea, incapable of engaging in constructive dialogue because he seems to use weather mastery as a means of eliciting a sense of competency that he hasn't achieved in his personal life, presumably at least partially due to addiction. 

I have been there....feel for him, but at the same time....wow. I try to never comment on his musings for that reason. He just cannot tolerate alternative points of view.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, incapable of engaging in constructive dialogue because he seems to use weather mastery as a means of eliciting a sense of competency that he hasn't achieved in his personal life, presumably at least partially due to addiction. 

I have been there....feel for him, but at the same time....wow. I try to never comment on his musing for that reason. He just cannot tolerate alternative points of view.

Bingo. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s going balls out lol. Hopefully that, Jerry’s squirrels, and Steve’s bees nests are correct. 

I do have a ton of hickory nuts already on my tree.