El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Why do you feel it us even a toned down version of 1997/2015? At best as it looks now the MEI may get only to ~1/2 the MEI of those two (say, low +1s). The RONI is looking to top at only low end strong vs the ~+2.35 peaks of 1997/2015. So, based on MEI and RONI, should 2023 even resemble those?

Its a good fit for 2015 on the MODOKI spectrum and also in terms of sensible weather...this is why if you go back and look at my seasonal composite, 2015-2016 is in there. Remember, basin-wide events have a great deal of variability....its acting like a toned down version of 1997 now, but I do not expect that to continue. Its much weaker and more basin-wide...I think the favorable pattern will be more protracted than it was in 2016. 1997 never even got favorable in terms of sensible weather, which I do not expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing that I have learned is that you have to master the art of nuanced thinking with respect to seasonal forecasting...a couple of years ago, I would have only considered basin-wide, mod-strong el Nino analogs, but I have realized that it makes little sense to be so restrictive based upon only ENSO when there is such a wide assortment of factors working in concert around the globe to consider. This is why now I will also consider what has actually happened in terms of temp and precip patterns and potent el Nino seasons like 1982 and 2015 had value...1997 did not, IMO.

Rigidity is your largest foe in seasonal forecasting....any forecasting, really. Keep an open mind and try with all of your might avoid becoming married to any single ideology.

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a good fit for 2015 on the MODOKI spectrum and also in terms of sensible weather...this is why if you go back and look at my seasonal composite, 2015-2016 is in there. Remember, basin-wide events have a great deal of variability....its acting like a toned down version of 1997 now, but I do not expect that to continue. Its much weaker and more basin-wide...I think the favorable pattern will be more protracted than it was in 2016. 1997 never even got favorable in terms of sensible weather, which I do not expect.

2015 always checked out. a weaker, colder version of that winter would be pretty damn good

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

2015 always checked out. a weaker, colder version of that winter would be pretty damn good

And a couple of years ago, I would have missed that thinking it was too strong of an el Nino to warrant consideration.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And a couple of years ago, I would have missed that thinking it was too strong of an el Nino to warrant consideration.

i would be shocked if we had a Pacific onslaught for the whole winter like 1997. analogs and seasonals strongly suggest otherwise. also factor in the weak SPV

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would be shocked if we had a Pacific onslaught for the whole winter like 1997. analogs and seasonals strongly suggest otherwise. also factor in the weak SPV

Yea, no way. Maybe we brown sombrero our way to below normal snowfall, but it won't be for lack of chances.

[BlizzardWx]

MEI will likely get a good bump from this pattern going forward, but hard to say how much over a two month average. 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, very interesting stuff!

Regarding what I bolded, is this Nino really all that strong when you consider it is only low end strong on a RONI basis and was still only weak on an MEI basis as per the ON of +0.6? Much of this thread's discussion for a long time has been emphasizing that the current Nino is not that strong and not well coupled with the atmosphere.

Lots of ENSO metrics to consider and debate, but many point to a robust El Nino if not strong.

The Equatorial SOI (a quality ENSO metric) 3-month average for Sep-Nov was -1.33 (6th lowest since 1950).  EQSOI is a measure of surface pressure anomalies between Indonesia and the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

 

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark This pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994. If this does turn into a PAC firehose jet pattern then my guess that February is a good month for cold and snow goes right into the crapper. Going to have to see what January does but if we get into mid-late January and there’s a raging PAC jet pumping away, then we are in serious trouble and I don’t think a -NAO/-AO would be of much help at that point IF that’s the case IMO

Yea, we'll see. I still expect a much better season than 1994-1995, but like I said...if not, then back to the drawing board. But even @Allsnowis optimistic about January and February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

MEI will likely get a good bump from this pattern going forward, but hard to say how much over a two month average. 

I think it peaks around 1.2

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

 

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark This pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994. If this does turn into a PAC firehose jet pattern then my guess that February is a good month for cold and snow goes right into the crapper. Going to have to see what January does but if we get into mid-late January and there’s a raging PAC jet pumping away, then we are in serious trouble and I don’t think a -NAO/-AO would be of much help at that point IF that’s the case IMO

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

[mitchnick]

Not saying it's right, but that's what you call a rubber band 10mb pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

It looks alike in the Pacific, not the arctic.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks alike in the Pacific, not the arctic.

Well if that's all we're talking, no need to be concerned over a repeat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well if that's all we're talking, no need to be concerned over a repeat. 

I'm not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here a couple of quotes from my work to remain mindful as the frustration mounts.

There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual la Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023.

 

Primary Extratropical Pacific Analogs:1953-1954,1965-1966,1972-1973,2004-2005,2018-2019

[griteater]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

Mid-late Dec 1994 has been showing up on the CPC analog dates recently

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Mid-late Dec 1994 has been showing up on the CPC analog dates recently

 

Yea, it's a great late month match once the AO/NAO go positive.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

It’s the progged pattern. Early December was definitely different than ‘94. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is an example of the impact of the NAO....it's not "useless" and it does matter, granted the Pacific is king.

The warmth should spread east once it flips positive and the PAC jet persists, potentially better aligning with my composite.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, griteater said:

Mid-late Dec 1994 has been showing up on the CPC analog dates recently

That's a pretty good Aleutian Low signal at Day+12. -150dm

https://ibb.co/XY9t1gw

[raindancewx]

Every forecast I've seen for this month, including my own, looks way too cold now.

We're talking about +10-15 anomalies already guys. I wasn't fucking around in late November when I said the heat would be similar in magnitude to Dec 2015. I never meant that it was going to sit exclusively over DC to Boston as you all took it. The northern third of the US is averaging +5 or something, and we're losing the "cold" aspect of early Dec with the AO/NAO flip. The WPO still looks super positive, i.e. "low north / high south" oriented for the coming weeks, so lows should continue to dump into Los Angeles.

The CFS is garbage, but it does this coming the next week. Its hard to imagine it completely screwing up something that close to now. You're talking a pretty substantial expansion of +5 to +15 type warmth in the northern US if it's remotely close. In week two, when it has no skill, the +5 to +15 zone moves east.

Just a quick reminder - this is how Dec 2009 looked. That's why I've been so cranky about that year. I don't have an issue with it for the Fall/and roughly Feb 20-Apr 20, but it's not a good match for the core of winter. The ND/Montana border looks like it could be literally 25 degrees warmer than December 2009, and that's the "path" cold takes to reach a lot of you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yes, I agree that losing the blocking is going to shift that warmth east...was just saying the same thing.

[stadiumwave]

 

10 hours ago, griteater said:

Mid-late Dec 1994 has been showing up on the CPC analog dates recently

 

 

East Asia has a lot of troughiness being modeled Dec 16-29. Per East Asia Rule, correlates to east U.S. 6-10 days later. Somewhere around Christmas through 1st week of new year.

 

The 0z GFS & GEFS changed drastically for Christmas Eve. 

Trend

 

 

This does not appear to be a cold outbreak but some seasonal & perhaps tad below normal when systems swing through. Would support some possible snow potential somewhere during that period . 

 

EDIT: I could've swore I saw DEC 24 on the analog map, ha. My point was irrelevant except for the Christmas period. 

[GaWx]

On 12/12/2023 at 12:24 AM, griteater said:

48% of GEFS Ext members with SSW in early Jan period on tonight's run.  Highest I've seen so far this winter for that product

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/strat/

 

 

 

 

 

1. It dropped from 48% to 32%, but 32% is still significant. The EPS is at least that high for very late Dec into early Jan.

2.

 

[stadiumwave]

CFS continues to show NAO & AO drop around & after Christmas. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. It dropped from 48% to 32%, but 32% is still significant. The EPS is at least that high for very late Dec into early Jan.

2.

 

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

What mechanism is causing that? (Does it have to do with things just being more difficult overall?)

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What mechanism is causing that? (Does it have to do with things just being more difficult overall?)

Not sure.

[snowman19]

OISST finally updated on Cyclonicwx last night…stagnated at +2.0C in 3.4 still