El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

1. The Nov +PNA means that for only the second time since 1950, there was a +PNA in all of June-Nov. The only other time was 2021. But 2009 was a very close call. I consider +0.25+ a +PNA month.

2. The Nov -NAO means that for only the 3rd time since 1950, there was a -NAO in all of June-Nov. The only other years were 2012 and 2010. I consider -0.25- a -NAO month.

[snowman19]

@so_whats_happening @bluewaveHere’s the new Euro run, shows a super El Niño. VERY strong signal!
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening @bluewaveHere’s the new Euro run, shows a super El Niño. VERY strong signal!
 

It's been too warm all year.

[snowman19]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's been too warm all year.

Given the subsurface (from the recent major WWB/DWKW), surface, upcoming constructive interference from the MJO and what looks to be another very substantial WWB coming up, I really don’t think it’s that far fetched at all

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given the subsurface (from the recent major WWB/DWKW), surface, upcoming constructive interference from the MJO and what looks to be another very substantial WWB coming up, I really don’t think it’s that far fetched at all

I posted a few days ago that temps would be dropping and you doubted me to put it lightly. But they dropped.  If you look at the modeling over the past 5-7 days (Euro, Gfs and Cfs), they haven't been consistently getting stronger with the WWB. There's been a lot of up and down with no real consensus.  So I  don't know if your claim it's getting stronger is from posters or modeling, but I  wouldn't characterize it as strengthening at this point. Also, it seems a good bit of the westerly anomalies are west of the dateline and the WWB's this fall that were similar failed to warm as progged or advertized by Twitter posters you linked or modeling. There's still time for it to get its act together and boost temps more to your liking, so there's that I suppose. 

[so_whats_happening]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. The Nov +PNA means that for only the second time since 1950, there was a +PNA in all of June-Nov. The only other time was 2021. But 2009 was a very close call. I consider +0.25+ a +PNA month.

2. The Nov -NAO means that for only the 3rd time since 1950, there was a -NAO in all of June-Nov. The only other years were 2012 and 2010. I consider -0.25- a -NAO month.

Last year was awfully close to that time frame for PNA, it collapsed toward the end of October. Good it is at least holding up a bit.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I absolutely have been saving a bunch of the Euro Weeklies SPV progs. I was the one repeatedly mentioning the can kicking that went on between the Nov 1 and 19th runs. Remember? After that, they suddenly got much more bullish about a weak SPV.

 In recent days, I’ve noticed not as weak of an SPV in early to mid Dec as in runs from a few days ago and in late Nov. We have to make sure this won’t turn out to be a mirage just like with all model progs for anything.

 Today’s isn’t as weak as the three prior runs of 45+% of members with major SSWs. Today it is ~38%. Also, the # of members with a sub -10 is only ~18%. That was way up at ~30% a couple of days ago.

Cool the only reason I asked was to see if the model was overthinking the weakening, which sounds about right given past warming events models go too quick with it. I personally would like to see a strong pass in Phase 5-6-7 to really hammer the SPV but I know it would be a very unwelcomed thing.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Cool the only reason I asked was to see if the model was overthinking the weakening, which sounds about right given past warming events models go too quick with it. I personally would like to see a strong pass in Phase 5-6-7 to really hammer the SPV but I know it would be a very unwelcomed thing.

You can get the last 7 days here:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202311280000

[snowman19]

I posted a few days ago that temps would be dropping and you doubted me to put it lightly. But they dropped.  If you look at the modeling over the past 5-7 days (Euro, Gfs and Cfs), they haven't been consistently getting stronger with the WWB. There's been a lot of up and down with no real consensus.  So I  don't know if your claim it's getting stronger is from posters or modeling, but I  wouldn't characterize it as strengthening at this point. Also, it seems a good bit of the westerly anomalies are west of the dateline and the WWB's this fall that were similar failed to warm as progged or advertized by Twitter posters you linked or modeling. There's still time for it to get its act together and boost temps more to your liking, so there's that I suppose. 

I didn’t doubt it. However, if the MJO behaves as expected this cooling will be short lived

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I didn’t doubt it. However, if the MJO behaves as expansive this cooling will be short lived

 

Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7:

NOV 7, Phase 7

DEC 27, Phase 7

 

OCT 8, Phase 8

DEC 27, Phase 8

 

It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert. 

[raindancewx]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:24 PM, raindancewx said:

Bering Sea Rule implies a major system pulling through the Southwest US in the Dec 5-9 time frame. Broadly consistent with my analogs. Almost all of the six analogs had a snow event between Dec 8-12 for the SW. Major lows south of Kamchatka tend to pass over New Mexico in 17-21 days.

Unweighted analog blend from me from October has represented November fairly well, with more heat coming in the short term.

 

The East-West timing component of the Bering Sea Rule is nearly infallible to me - just wish it was more reliable on the north/south axis.

I'm expecting the MJO to pick up amplitude in 5-6-7, slow down a bit, and then crash pretty quickly in 8.  We're in phase 4 at high amplitude on 12/5 in an El Nino. So the comps are not many. In terms of the rotation, we're about half way between 2014 & 2018 timing. CPC has been showing 1991 a lot in the 6-10 and 8-14 periods as an analog, that was the year in my group that I liked most for December in my analog group. Dec 1994 is basically dead on to MJO timing at the moment.

~ish. 6-7 transition is often pretty stormy here in December, but not sure if it that will work this year with the -PDO.

[George001]

It’s going to be super. It’s a when, not if.

[GaWx]

Look at this OISST plunge of Nino 1+2! Did anyone foresee this?

[weathafella]

38 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s going to be super. It’s a when, not if.

To hit 90 days of 2 or higher it's a tall order.  Possible but still at this point a long shot.  Not that it matters if the tri monthly comes in at 1.94 vs 2.01.  But I don't think it will be that high in 3.4.   It would have to ramp up again (it will but when and for how long?).   And at what point does it go over the peak.  So 90 days of 2 seems like somewhat of a heavy lift but anything is possible.

[bluewave]

Just remember, there isn’t any difference in the warming potential to the pattern from a strong +1.9 El Niño and a super +2.1 El Niño. The important thing is how it combines with other signals like the MJO. The Maritime Continent  phases will be active like we are seeing this month with an extensive +30C warm pool in the region which hasn’t happened before in an El Niño. The area around the Philippines near MJO 4-5 just had their warmest November on record. Plus there has been a rebound in SSTs north of Australia which  is more Niña-like also. So these competing influences near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent amplify and slow the MJO in the warm MJO 4-7 phases. 

December starting with a very amplified forcing signal in MJO 4 and 7 which is very warm in North America

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Look at this OISST plunge of Nino 1+2! Did anyone foresee this?

About every piece of EMI guidance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just remember, there isn’t any difference in the warming potential to the pattern from a strong +1.9 El Niño and a super +2.1 El Niño. The important thing is how it combines with other signals like the MJO. The Maritime Continent  phases will be active like we are seeing this month with an extensive +30C warm pool in the region which hasn’t happened before in an El Niño. The area around the Philippines near MJO 4-5 just had their warmest November on record. Plus there has been a rebound in SSTs north of Australia which  is more Niña-like also. So these competing influences near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent amplify and slow the MJO in the warm MJO 4-7 phases. 

December starting with a very amplified forcing signal in MJO 4 and 7 which is very warm in North America

Colder version of 2015-2016.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Colder version of 2015-2016.

Also a very Niña-like Northern branch of the jet stream with the December 2010 La Niña flooding record getting challenged in parts of Washington State. Plus the wettest first week of December on record ahead of La Niña years 2007 and 1975.

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	2023-12-07	6.73	2
2	2007-12-07	6.13	0
3	1975-12-07	5.91	0

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Also a very Niña-like Northern branch of the jet stream with the December 2010 La Niña flooding record getting challenged in parts of Washington State. 

 

 

Yes...I explicitly mentioned an We will see how it plays out, but I love that. I don't need record cold...just give me an active storm track and temps that aren't prohibitive and I will take it and run. 2004-2005 is my 3rd snowiest season on record.

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Colder version of 2015-2016.

I wonder if anyone has the Nov or Dec Euro Seasonal from 2015 just to see what it was showing then? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

I wonder if anyone has the Nov or Dec Euro Seasonal from 2015 just to see what it was showing then? 

I'm sure someone will pull it up...I know raindance knows how to.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, griteater said:

I wonder if anyone has the Nov or Dec Euro Seasonal from 2015 just to see what it was showing then? 

The late November weeklies in 2015 completely missed the record warmth for December. They had a stock Nino ridge in NW Canada and SE Nino trough for December. Instead we got the opposite with a PAC NW trough and SE ridge. My guess is that the error was missing the record MJO 5 El Niño pattern which produced the historic +13 warmth with that ridiculous standing wave. 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/

 

 

 

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The late November weeklies in 2015 completely missed the record warmth for December. They had a stock Nino ridge in NW Canada and SE Nino trough for December. Instead we got the opposite with a PAC NW trough and SE ridge. My guess is that the error was missing the record MJO 5 El Niño pattern which produced the historic +13 warmth with that ridiculous standing wave. 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/

 

 

 

Looks like the Euro Weeklies from late Nov 2015 for Dec had a sort of stock super nino look with a big Aleutian Low and big ridge over Canada and Northern U.S (only posting the Dec Wk 2 image here).....but yeah, the final outcome was shifted east with ridge in E U.S.

 

 

[griteater]

Dug these up.  Here is what the Euro Seasonal had in Oct 2015 for Dec-Feb (2015-2016)

 

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Look at this OISST plunge of Nino 1+2! Did anyone foresee this?

Cfs, but it was premature. 

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, griteater said:

Looks like the Euro Weeklies from late Nov 2015 for Dec had a sort of stock super nino look with a big Aleutian Low and big ridge over Canada and Northern U.S (only posting the Dec Wk 2 image here).....but yeah, the final outcome was shifted east with ridge in E U.S.

 

 

Needless to say, there have been a few upgrades with the Euro suite (and other modeling), data ingestion, etc. in the past 8 years. I  don't know what looking at past modeling does. But if we're going to look, here's a few seasonal forecasts from the Euro off the 9/09 run. Unfortunately, the free data back then was paultry, so all I  have are the temp forecasts. Pretty good forecast.

[NEPASnow]

Major Stratoshperic warming taking place, let's see where it takes us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@snowman19Can I ask why you weenie certain contributions of empirical data? I mean, if you were genuinely objective, I feel as though you would welcome that.....

I make it a point to stick up for you because I think you add a lot of great info, regardless of whether or not is in the best interest of my forecast or personal preference.

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

Major Stratoshperic warming taking place, let's see where it takes us.

The plot thickens. It may take a while to work its way down though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19Can I ask why you weenie certain contributions of empirical data? I mean, if you were genuinely objective, I feel as though you would welcome that.....

I make it a point to stick up for you because I think you add a lot of great info, regardless of whether or not is in the best interest of my forecast of personal preference.

Snowman, kudos for recognizing it and changing that emoji. I respect that.