El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

 I don’t think he does seasonal forecasts anymore, but I’d put Isotherm in there too. He nailed some tough ones that fooled a lot of other people (2019-2020 being mild, went big in 2010-2011 even with the strong nina, etc).

Yes. Forgot about him because he is incognito. Although he did bomb his last effort pretty badly before leaving...I think it was 20-21 he went big +NAO and it was blocky.

[George001]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sorry, but with all due respect, i’m not sure if you can really comment on a pretty well-respected forecaster’s track record and talk about how horrible it is when for the last few years you’d talk about how every shortwave hitting the atlantic would turn into a historic Boston blizzard 

Thats fair, my track record is really fucking bad. I let bias cloud my judgement and see the same from a lot of posters (to a lesser extent), so I’m probably projecting a bit. I remember arguing that it we would get a blizzard despite being on the east side of a 940s mb low last December. Deep down I always knew that was far fetched, but I wasn’t thinking rationally, I just saw a red L on tropical tidbits and went off the deep end ya know? I will always have that bias, but I am making a concentrated effort to be more realistic and science based rather than looking through the lens of thick snow goggles. Ray mentioned that he thinks I’m overcompensating a couple days ago, which is very possible. If you have a bias and you know you have one, to become a better forecaster you pretty much have to compensate in some ways. It’s all about finding the right balance. 
 

 

[Terpeast]

I respect a forecaster who admits their own biases much more than someone who armchair quarterbacks other people’s forecasts. 

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I respect a forecaster who admits their own biases much more than someone who armchair quarterbacks other people’s forecasts. 

You'll never really know how hard forecasting is until you put actual pen to paper and publish it for all to see

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We get it, you have decided that the CANSIPS is definitely right and this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter. 

 Actually, this new CANSIPS run, despite its -NAO, isn't very cold. Where do you see "very cold"? It is for the bulk of the E US (other than the slightly AN in upper Lakes to NNE) near normal (after adjusting to 1991-2020 instead of 1981-2010 baseline), which is oddly enough slightly warmer than the prior run (which was slightly BN in the SE):

 

 Of course, near normal would seem very cold relative to most recent winters. I'll take the colder change although I'm hoping for actual BN here in the SE as El Niño provides the best chance for that.

[csnavywx]

Trade wind burst pattern looks to resume after a month of relative slumber. Pretty telltale sign in the subsurface that a substantial OKW was generated. This one has more heft to it, so it may break further up the coastline.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, this new CANSIPS run, despite its -NAO, isn't very cold. Where do you see "very cold"? It is for the bulk of the E US (other than the slightly AN in upper Lakes to NNE) near normal (after adjusting to 1991-2020 instead of 1981-2010 baseline), which is oddly enough slightly warmer than the prior run (which was slightly BN in the SE):

 

 Of course, near normal would seem very cold relative to most recent winters. I'll take the colder change although I'm hoping for actual BN vs here in the SE as El Niño provides the best chance for that.

overall, I can see the winter ending ip slightly warmer than average, but I expect February to be cold. it shows a typical back loaded winter… a Dec torch will offset the later cold departures

[snowman19]

Trade wind burst pattern looks to resume after a month of relative slumber. Pretty telltale sign in the subsurface that a substantial OKW was generated. This one has more heft to it, so it may break further up the coastline.

Around mid-month, the MJO wave moves/propagates into the Pacific and that’s when it constructively interferes with El Niño and really amplifies the warming. I think this month ends with region 3.4 at around +1.8C - +1.9C. This MJO looks to have good strength too

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Around mid-month, the MJO wave moves/propagates into the Pacific and that’s when it constructively interferes with El Niño and really amplifies the warming. I think this month ends with region 3.4 at around +1.8C - +1.9C. This MJO looks to have good strength too

Why do you believe the MJO wave is going to strongly propagate into the Pacific?

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

Speaking of ENSO, I’m curious what the official ONI will be for JJA. I’m guessing in the +1.2 range? August had a lot of warming, enough to easily get the nino into moderate territory on the latest trimonthly update. 

 It won't be +1.2. It will be either +1.0 or +1.1. August OISST is ~+1.3, which translates to ERSST likely being slightly cooler than that (~+1.25?). June was 0.84 and July was +1.00. So, if Aug ERSST turns out to be +1.25, that would mean JJA average of +1.03, which would round down to +1.0 for the table. But if Aug ERSST were to come in at +1.31+, that would give a JJA of +1.05+, which would be reported as +1.1 in the table. So, that's why I say +1.0 or +1.1. 
 To get a +1.2, you'd need a +1.6 for Aug, which isn't happening.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, this new CANSIPS run, despite its -NAO, isn't very cold. Where do you see "very cold"? It is for the bulk of the E US (other than the slightly AN in upper Lakes to NNE) near normal (after adjusting to 1991-2020 instead of 1981-2010 baseline), which is oddly enough slightly warmer than the prior run (which was slightly BN in the SE):

 

 Of course, near normal would seem very cold relative to most recent winters. I'll take the colder change although I'm hoping for actual BN here in the SE as El Niño provides the best chance for that.

Btw, I have never said nor do I think this will be a cold winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

overall, I can see the winter ending ip slightly warmer than average, but I expect February to be cold. it shows a typical back loaded winter… a Dec torch will offset the later cold departures

Agree. Even the "cold" stretches I can see behing dampened by some milder overnight lows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Thats fair, my track record is really fucking bad. I let bias cloud my judgement and see the same from a lot of posters (to a lesser extent), so I’m probably projecting a bit. I remember arguing that it we would get a blizzard despite being on the east side of a 940s mb low last December. Deep down I always knew that was far fetched, but I wasn’t thinking rationally, I just saw a red L on tropical tidbits and went off the deep end ya know? I will always have that bias, but I am making a concentrated effort to be more realistic and science based rather than looking through the lens of thick snow goggles. Ray mentioned that he thinks I’m overcompensating a couple days ago, which is very possible. If you have a bias and you know you have one, to become a better forecaster you pretty much have to compensate in some ways. It’s all about finding the right balance. 
 

 

Good post. I feel like if snowman could covey a bit more modesty and insight, he wouldn't take as much crap.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

You'll never really know how hard forecasting is until you put actual pen to paper and publish it for all to see

Gold. This is a great illustration of the evolution of my mindset over the past several years.

Circa 2018 was the top...I was making fun of Raindance being an arrogant prick fall 2018, before he handed me my ass that season. Then the "This is complicated" sentiment is me this year.

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Around mid-month, the MJO wave moves/propagates into the Pacific and that’s when it constructively interferes with El Niño and really amplifies the warming. I think this month ends with region 3.4 at around +1.8C - +1.9C. This MJO looks to have good strength too

As i mentioned earlier it looks to come in the latter part of the month which will start to give impacts as we close out the month. So the best bet for it is to maintain everything status quo until then. Again assuming the wave holds properly and moves into the pacific. Forecasts were too quick in bringing this into phase 3/4 as has been the case for most of the summer so far.

Remember MJO progresses 30-45 days. It isnt perfect as sometimes it is quicker and sometimes it lags but we are still dealing with a really warm equatorial ocean so it is having a hard time creating a solid wave rather it just is spikes that seem to happen.

[raindancewx]

It's actually pretty amazing how similar US temps for Jun-Aug overall are to Jun-Aug 1982, if you add 1F to 1982. That's despite all the bitching about not locking in / getting the forcing we're supposed to get. I mean...1982 had the forcing right? I posted some maps in the winter 2023-24 thread for anyone curious.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It's actually pretty amazing how similar US temps for Jun-Aug overall are to Jun-Aug 1982, if you add 1F to 1982. That's despite all the bitching about not locking in / getting the forcing we're supposed to get. I mean...1982 had the forcing right? I posted some maps in the winter 2023-24 thread for anyone curious.

Its tougher to judge in the warm season,  though...forcing in August doesn't always behave the same as it does in January.

[GaWx]

The CFS ONI peak has come back way down from +2.15 just a few weeks ago to ~+1.80-1.85.

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS ONI peak has come back way down from +2.15 just a few weeks ago to ~+1.80-1.85.

And when does it peak?

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And when does it peak?

NDJ

[so_whats_happening]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS ONI peak has come back way down from +2.15 just a few weeks ago to ~+1.80-1.85.

 

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NDJ

I am curious at when it peaks may be a split difference of october to december. Could see november as that is not too unusual. More so if we are to attain these higher number i would much rather like to see some continual activity in many aspects. Lets see how this month evolves definitely could lead us in the path of figuring things out again barring no major changes to overall progression. 

Im personally still leaning october maxima but we shall see how it goes. Could see an extended colling for another larger bump end of november /december to give it that bump. For late season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The CFS ONI peak has come back way down from +2.15 just a few weeks ago to ~+1.80-1.85.

That is more feasible.

[snowman19]

The CFS ONI peak has come back way down from +2.15 just a few weeks ago to ~+1.80-1.85.

Toss it. The CFS being the flip flopping CFS. I have no faith in a model that’s been trying to cool region 1+2 into a La Niña since March. Garbage model

[weathafella]

I used to do detailed and well researched winter forecasts and actually had some really good ones.  But over the past 6-8 years I realized I just don’t have to desire to continue it-life events change your perspective.  So I lurk mainly nowadays.   But I know how many hours of sleep are lost in this endeavor and I salute all who put out their well researched thoughts year after year. 

[roardog]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Toss it. The CFS being the flip flopping CFS. I have no faith in a model that’s been trying to cool region 1+2 into a La Niña since March. Garbage model

But yet you use it for MJO forecasts. Hmm.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

But yet you use it for MJO forecasts. Hmm.

I know you do when you want to show region 1+2 “dropping”

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Toss it. The CFS being the flip flopping CFS. I have no faith in a model that’s been trying to cool region 1+2 into a La Niña since March. Garbage model

Well, CFS is also advertising a mild winter....

[snowman19]

https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1697565655653056596?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw                
 

 

https://x.com/jnmet/status/1697264889201348963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1697565655653056596?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw                
 

 

https://x.com/jnmet/status/1697264889201348963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Sorry to bother, but it doesn't look like Twitter (or X I guess is what it's called now) links embed to AmWx anymore, so they're not viewable. Can you summarize the tweets you're sharing? In your own words preferably. 

[snowman19]

Sorry to bother, but it doesn't look like Twitter (or X I guess is what it's called now) links embed to AmWx anymore, so they're not viewable. Can you summarize the tweets you're sharing? In your own words preferably. 

I am not good with the graphics, but in summary, we are seeing the +IOD strengthening, both oceanic (SST) and atmospheric response. This should constructively interfere with El Niño and lead to further warming and atmospheric coupling, -SOI in the next several weeks. The MJO propagating into the Pacific in conjunction with the +IOD, should also weaken the trades, cause a WWB/DWKW and also help lead to warming come the end of this month