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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said:

It’s been this way for a couple of years now.  Use the block feature.  

I know many of us in the south get frustrated when we do not see snow when it is forecast, especially since it has become so rare in recent years (or decades).  I look at like this.  I am probably the biggest winnie on here but if there is no snow this weekend, so be it.  

I'll be disappointed but it was fun tracking the last couple of days.  It's a welcome diversion from all the serious things we deal with in life.  I will just move on to looking for the next threat.  If nothing happens this year, I will start reading ENSO predictions in June and start tracking again next fall. 

I just feel for the younger posters under 40 who did not get to experience some of the great winters of the 70's and 80's around here.  But even then, a good year was 2-3 events.  The climate has changed.  In next 20 years or so when I am gone, you younger posters will probably be experiencing another shift.  That's what the weather does.  That's what makes it so fun to follow.

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16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

As a fellow foothiller I think we have a good shot but there’s no denying the high risk for downsloping to completely ruin the event.

 

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Little more faith giving for our area after the 12z euro run. The line is tight as it is always round here.

Yeah I just hope we can squeeze out just enough to meet warning criteria. My rule of thumb is if I get 4 inches that winter was good and I'm good with no more snow for that winter. Here's to hope that us here in the foothills can cash in. We are so close to something more as usual lol.

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4 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I know many of us in the south get frustrated when we do not see snow when it is forecast, especially since it has become so rare in recent years (or decades).  I look at like this.  I am probably the biggest winnie on here but if there is no snow this weekend, so be it.  

I'll be disappointed but it was fun tracking the last couple of days.  It's a welcome diversion from all the serious things we deal with in life.  I will just move on to looking for the next threat.  If nothing happens this year, I will start reading ENSO predictions in June and start tracking again next fall. 

I just feel for the younger posters under 40 who did not get to experience some of the great winters of the 70's and 80's around here.  But even then, a good year was 2-3 events.  The climate has changed.  In next 20 years or so when I am gone, you younger posters will probably be experiencing another shift.  That's what the weather does.  That's what makes it so fun to follow.

I disagree...wnc had a great run from 09 to 2017. We had plenty of crappy winters before that including in the 90s

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1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

I disagree...wnc had a great run from 09 to 2017. We had plenty of crappy winters before that including in the 90s

True.  I was in the upstate.  2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016 had good events.  2019 was a good year here in the western NC Piedmont.  The 2000s didn’t produce much in my area outside Presidents’ Day storm. Still no pattern that rivals the 70s or 80s or even 1996.  2011 was probably the closest. 

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1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Not sure which one you are looking for but this is through 54...

 

Thanks, I was able to look at the globals then the site went down...  Heard a lot of talk comparing this to 3/2009...  we had 12.5" here in Saluda NC.  Really wet and heavy...  I'm having my roof replaced and the paper is down but not the shingles...   I am slightly concerned with roof weight if we'd see a repeat of 2009 when there are 60 bundles of singles up there.  

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

At 72

 

A Lot of snow can fall in that 12 hour window you just posted...  I can see me throwing shingle bundles off the roof tomorrow to lighten the load... The guy is coming tomorrow so hopefully they can shingle the back of the house...  it's been. few years but I know a good crew with roofing guns can drop drip edge and 10 square of shingles in a day...  

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3 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

So how accurate is the NAM at this range? Because compared to the Euro and GFS this is way west. 

I would focus on thermals and not so much synoptics. Someone had mentioned the precip just disappeared at hrs 69-72 and I agree it looks wonky.

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29 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I would focus on thermals and not so much synoptics. Someone had mentioned the precip just disappeared at hrs 69-72 and I agree it looks wonky.

Yeah I went from 4.1(Euro) and 3.6(GFS) for Morganton(Burke County) to blank on that NAM run. But the thermals especially the 850s were great for my area.

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21 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Yeah I went from 4.1(Euro) and 3.6(GFS) for Morganton(Burke County) to blank on that NAM run. But the thermals especially the 850s were great for my area.

Usually it does a terrible job showing precipitation coverage (usually way underdone) but an above average job at depicting precip type 

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