Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Unburials coming soon 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Unburials coming soon Okay, have you talked yourself into it enough that winter is over? I feel like you just keep trying to talk yourself into it, but you're still not 100% there lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 CPC still a torch 19-25’th...maybe less for far NNE https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 You know this winter is starting to erode the objective side of us when Mitch at 2200 feet in S VT is thinking of putting the snow blower into hibernation in mid-February. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: CPC still a torch 19-25’th...maybe less for far NNE https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php You probably know this already so not directed at you per se, but that chart is often misconstrued as meaning that, "warm" or "cool" that's not what that product is indicating. it's there to state there is a 40, 50 ... 70, 90% chance that a region will be above normal, or below normal. It doesn't give any scalar indication of that extreme. It could be .1F above normal in the magenta region, and that's a huge score for that outlook - in other words... That helps in a situation like this... because, that SE ridge is there but until these competing signals give up on the N/stream compression aspect, that above normal is likely to be tainted down by periodic clouds and 'dirty warm sector' ... I'm not trying to bun myself here - what I'm saying is the proper use of that product. If the N/stream backs off... than the "type" of warm departures may feature more in the way of what we associate psychobabbledee-doo to red hues: unabated expansion of the ridge allowing for larger diurnals - typical early spring dry warm burst 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: CPC still a torch 19-25’th...maybe less for far NNE https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know this winter is starting to erode the objective side of us when Mitch at 2200 feet in S VT is thinking of putting the snow blower into hibernation in mid-February. Hasn’t pretty much everyone had this mentality all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hasn’t pretty much everyone had this mentality all winter? There is a reason Scott packed it in weeks ago. It showed itself as a rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 A couple of weeks ago snow mobiles really started to experience their season and then this weekend I'm seeing people get their kayaks out of storage getting ready for the spring. It all depends on how you find the best way to enjoy the seasons and experiences. Sitting at 25 with moderate NW winds this evening, heading into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know this winter is starting to erode the objective side of us when Mitch at 2200 feet in S VT is thinking of putting the snow blower into hibernation in mid-February. Snow blower in, chipper out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: There is a reason Scott packed it in weeks ago. It showed itself as a rat It showed in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: There is a reason Scott packed it in weeks ago. It showed itself as a rat I’ll always have an eye out, but I’ve accepted a shit winter. This potentially could be my second real subpar winter since 11-12. Been quite a run. We’ll see. Maybe March has some tricks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: You probably know this already so not directed at you per se, but that chart is often misconstrued as meaning that, "warm" or "cool" that's not what that product is indicating. it's there to state there is a 40, 50 ... 70, 90% chance that a region will be above normal, or below normal. It doesn't give any scalar indication of that extreme. It could be .1F above normal in the magenta region, and that's a huge score for that outlook - in other words... That helps in a situation like this... because, that SE ridge is there but until these competing signals give up on the N/stream compression aspect, that above normal is likely to be tainted down by periodic clouds and 'dirty warm sector' ... I'm not trying to bun myself here - what I'm saying is the proper use of that product. If the N/stream backs off... than the "type" of warm departures may feature more in the way of what we associate psychobabbledee-doo to red hues: unabated expansion of the ridge allowing for larger diurnals - typical early spring dry warm burst This isn’t directed at you , but if you go back and check the correlation to areas 80% + shaded for above normal conditions compared to those shaded 30-40% , there will be a correlation that much above normal temps correlated to the areas that are in the 70-80% and upward % compared to those 30-40% and also intuitively you can guarantee there is a stronger correlation to much above normal temps for the areas that maintain (the % 70/80% and above above ) normal chances as the outlook time frame shifts from 6-10 days from the 8-14. Sure there are situations where there could be sustained periods of 2-4 f degrees above average (Ike when there isn’t much seasonal variability ...I.E (maybe Deep South Gulf coast in summer) but I think if you followed the tenor of the season and look at the daily averages for thus period , it’s not really necessary to pretend that the 80% above normal Outlook (assuming it maintains its % inside day 10) area won’t likely see much above normal temps . I would guess the most likely way it doesn’t is if the 7 day period includes a 4 day torch followed by a cold front the last 3 days that average out the period to (+2.5/3) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: You know this winter is starting to erode the objective side of us when Mitch at 2200 feet in S VT is thinking of putting the snow blower into hibernation in mid-February. Ha that was my first thought. All objectiveness is out the window. Dude could snowblow in early May at that elevation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My anxiety showed up in Dec For each person it’s the time they started getting anxious about the lack of snow. It started a lot earlier for some than others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha that was my first thought. All objectiveness is out the window. Dude could snowblow in early May at that elevation there. Mitch knows he will snow again this year , but when you are about to lose your pack at that area and elevation this time of year ..it’s deflating ..sure things could turn around (find me someone who will bet $ on it ) but I think the best odds and mind set is to anticipate below average snowfall going forward . I will make the most of it skiing at wildcat till I can’t but if you don’t ski it’s kinda like ...let’s move on or hope for one last storm in a shitter and maybe that attitude will end up to pessimistic but find me someone that is confident $ otherwise in CNE/SNE There is also probably some sort of emotional release of pent up emotional garbage in a melt and giving up (lowering the bar )= less suffering And accepting and making peace with the rat . Maybe iceberg can assist with any Still struggling to accept this , Have us all dress up in weenie outfits , pour us some heavily infused kool aid lead us into a cult like acceptance Where we will be promised patience and endless dentrites in our dream state in some Jim Jones “lite” ceremony 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Mitch knows he will snow again this year , but when you are about to lose your pack at that area and elevation this time of year ..it’s deflating ..sure things could turn around (find me someone who will bet $ on it ) but I think the best odds and mind set is to anticipate below average snowfall going forward . I will make the most of it skiing at wildcat till I can’t but if you don’t ski it’s kinda like ...let’s move on or hope for one last storm in a shitter and maybe that attitude will end up to pessimistic but find me someone that is confident $ otherwise in CNE/SNE There is also probably some sort of emotional release of pent up emotional garbage in a melt and giving up (lowering the bar )= less suffering And accepting and making peace with the rat lol Yeah it’s just a melt and coping by each who melts at different times. I still think it’ll snow again so being over it doesn’t really do anything lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it’s just a melt and coping by each who melts at different times. I still think it’ll snow again so being over it doesn’t really do anything lol. Yep. The objective side of me thinks it’s hilarious when all of us are like “I’m done with snow so let’s torch it!” or “this season has shown its cards, it won’t snow again in any meaningful amounts”as if we have any control whatsoever or as if we have any idea what it’s going to be doing 3 weeks from now. Sure, we speculate (that’s what these forums are for), but I’ve heard it so many times over the years on here. I’m ready to punt winter too but I know it doesn’t care what I think. Lol. If models are showing a 8-10” run-of-the-mill warning SWFE for Feb 26th or Mar 2nd or whatever inside of 5 days, 90% of the snow weenies will be all over it like flies on shit. Lots of people will “check back in” after “checking out” on winter. I find it amusing from a Tip-psychological aspect. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. The objective side of me thinks it’s hilarious when all of us are like “I’m done with snow so let’s torch it!” or “this season has shown its cards, it won’t snow again in any meaningful amounts”as if we have any control whatsoever or as if we have any idea what it’s going to be doing 3 weeks from now. Sure, we speculate (that’s what these forums are for), but I’ve heard it so many times over the years on here. I’m ready to punt winter too but I know it doesn’t care what I think. Lol. If models are showing a 8-10” run-of-the-mill warning SWFE for Feb 26th or Mar 2nd or whatever inside of 5 days, 90% of the snow weenies will be all over it like flies on shit. Lots of people will “check back in” after “checking out” on winter. I find it amusing from a Tip-psychological aspect. Is there a point where you’ll hope for record snowless year or would you prefer to get a Napril 8” snowfall to not live thru futility? When if ever, would just say F it.. let’s root against snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Some are just not ready for the evidence to appear in Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. The objective side of me thinks it’s hilarious when all of us are like “I’m done with snow so let’s torch it!” or “this season has shown its cards, it won’t snow again in any meaningful amounts”as if we have any control whatsoever or as if we have any idea what it’s going to be doing 3 weeks from now. Sure, we speculate (that’s what these forums are for), but I’ve heard it so many times over the years on here. I’m ready to punt winter too but I know it doesn’t care what I think. Lol. If models are showing a 8-10” run-of-the-mill warning SWFE for Feb 26th or Mar 2nd or whatever inside of 5 days, 90% of the snow weenies will be all over it like flies on shit. Lots of people will “check back in” after “checking out” on winter. I find it amusing from a Tip-psychological aspect. I think a lot of the difference in opinions here are semantics . “Giving up on winter “ to me ...usually Is interpreted = I have given up on this winter being defined as enjoyable or decent from here on out (In summary ) , you follow models significantly less, you Know it could still snow and you will log on and enjoy it if it does but you’ve effectively made peace that your likely looking at a rat either in season entirety or from here on out . People talk this way ..so they don’t need to make war and peace length novels every word isn’t meant literally . I think the most optimistic of the bunch are more perturbed by this attitude being stated over and over on a snow lovers board and well..that makes perfect sense . If I had more of a life right now I would post less! lol but this is definitely a “cool atmosphere” to just post and hang in here some just for the interactions with folks we’ve come to enjoy discussing our hobby with . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think a lot of the difference in opinions here are semantics . “Giving up on winter “ to me ...usually Is interpreted = I have given up on this winter being defined as enjoyable or decent from here on out (In summary ) , you follow models significantly less, you Know it could still snow and you will log on and enjoy it if it does but you’ve effectively made peace that your likely looking at a rat either in season entirety or from here on out . People talk this way ..every word isn’t meant literally I’ve given up completely from a point where I’m not looking at all the stuff I normally look at in winter. There is no snow anytime soon. Same old shit pattern looks to continue. No need to waste much time looking at models outside of the casual look. I’m well aware of climo and what not, but nothing is changing anytime soon. They’ll be torrents of water rushing down Mt Mansfield and sweeping skiers off their feet next week. May see bodies dumped on PFs backyard from the skiers succumbed to floods on the slopes. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve given up completely from a point where I’m not looking at all the stuff I normally look at in winter. There is no snow anytime soon. Same old shit pattern looks to continue. No need to waste much time looking at models outside of the casual look. I’m well aware of climo and what not, but nothing is changing anytime soon. They’ll be torrents of water rushing down Mt Mansfield and sweeping skiers off their feet next week. May see bodies dumped on PFs backyard from the skiers succumbed to floods on the slopes. This is why bets were made in Jan. It gets recognized and realized by people in different stages and times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is why bets were made in Jan. It gets recognized and realized by people in different stages and times I think you’ll lose that but it doesn’t change that this winter will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think you’ll lose that but it doesn’t change that this winter will suck. I won’t lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They’ll be torrents of water rushing down Mt Mansfield and sweeping skiers off their feet next week. May see bodies dumped on PFs backyard from the skiers succumbed to floods on the slopes. Reindeer sweaters And empty bourbon bottles washing up ..maybe even the snow stake itself , lapping the main door of spruce peak lodge as angry February vacationers are boated away to safety 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, mcglups said: A couple of weeks ago snow mobiles really started to experience their season and then this weekend I'm seeing people get their kayaks out of storage getting ready for the spring. It all depends on how you find the best way to enjoy the seasons and experiences. Sitting at 25 with moderate NW winds this evening, heading into the teens. Lots of great deals starting to show up on used sleds. I think some guys are just done.. I'm happy about that, because we're hoping to get a couple for next season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Reindeer sweaters And empty bourbon bottles washing up ..maybe even the snow stake itself , lapping the main door of spruce peak lodge as angry February vacationers are boated away to safety Busiest weekend of the year only to ski on the consistency of a snow cone after days of rain and 60s destroy the slopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Busiest weekend of the year only to ski on the consistency of a snow cone after days of rain and 60s destroy the slopes. They may open up the tiki bar at the Outdoor pool, Increasing booze availability maybe the best way to pivot for the resort , I imagine very long lines at the breweries starting at dawn , parents wearing shades .. half in the bag ..with kids in tow with their charged up iPads to pacify them , police cars with a heavier presence, the town will have all this pent up angst like a top ready to burst ..powder freak nervously rocking in the bathroom , checking the ARW model for any indication of a moose fart to look forward to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They may open up the tiki bar at the Outdoor pool, Increasing booze availability maybe the best way to pivot for the resort , I imagine very long lines at the breweries starting at dawn , parents half in the bag with kids in tow with their charged up iPads to pacify them , police cars with a heavier presence, the town will have all this pent up angst like a top ready to burst Lol another stage of the grief is going after the ski areas and snowmobilers . I picked up where you guys left Dryslot off. Its all fun and games. We’ll be skiing into May like we do every year I bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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