Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: honestly, with that being the case, it is really nice seeing Canada get some legit Arctic air involved. this would produce at some point once the trough gets kicked east there's a lot more ways to win when you have fresh cold air Oh …all that, sure I was just amusing over the surgical precision that model made in abasing the -EPO comments I made earlier in the day… haha. yeah I mean it’s a pattern change so there’s gonna be weird variations on it most likely until it gets closer and all that jazz. It was just funny. Like whatever the great model engineer in the sky, must’ve been listening went oh yeah fuck you. I swear did actually occur to me yesterday that even though it was predominantly a positive PNA emergent so I was wondering if it might try to retrograde into that look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I didn't say everything is going to plan at all. Funny being mocked for issuing updates from the guy who disappeared after his train derailed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, bwt3650 said: very few I bet. Most of the snow haters either get off on the trolling high or the defense mechanism of not wanting to be disappointed. The ball busting and sarcasm though is priceless. That I do get and it's what makes this forum superior to all the other ones. That and the actual knowledge in here. But the whiny, it's never going to snow again stuff gets old. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't say everything is going to plan at all. Funny being mocked for issuing updates from the guy who disappeared after his train derailed. What was once hoped to be a Japanese high speed rail train, quickly turned into an orange line car on fire above the Mystic River. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, jbenedet said: Gonna be really interesting seeing Jan 20th, region wide observationally fitting November 20th. We keep bringing this up but the climo disparity will be most significant at/around that time frame. At the same time, the arctic and cold source regions such as Siberia are following their Jan 20th climo and in some cases have been colder/snowier than climo. Tying this together it makes for explosive baroclinicity in the Eastern CONUS. To elaborate: I believe if/when the arctic is involved we will be prone to seeing rapid cyclogenesis and deepening shortwaves in the East. From a "big storm" standpoint, this is obviously intriguing; but from a pro-cold/snow standpoint - absent high latitude blocking you will really want to see Long wave troughs overhead (moreso than usual). Or probabilistically: warm sectoring risk higher than normal; suppression risk lower than normal. Yea, that is the vibe I was trying to send off, too...not worried at all about suppression, but precip type will continue to be a pressing issue IMO. Difference being that we should ultimately have cold air to work with, so it won't be a non-starter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What was once hoped to be a Japanese high speed rail train, quickly turned into an orange line car on fire above the Mystic River. He could have easily been right. I was just breaking his balls in retaliation. Its just an example of how special seasons like 2010 are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I still think we see a reemergence of high latitude blocking....my guess is later Feb and/or March. Until then, its pacific driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Chris12WX said: My god is the parade of cutters and wanna-be cutters on the GFS impressive. The mean storm track is this season is Buffalo, NY and it won't be denied. I do find it interesting that all of the systems shown never really make it into Canada as if they forgot a passport. And people keep acting surprised ? (Maybe it’s not surprise) but when folks post maps and say “looks good “ , “pants tent” and chalk things up miss after miss to nuisances ..after a while it feels like it’s not as good as they have wished it to be for sne , seems like we have cutters *favored* set up with the mean trough in center of Great Lakes . Maybe we can get lucky as cold air is around if something goes south due to transient blocking or an over running set up . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Friday has gorgeous day potential in Eastern SNE - classic needle-threader in between fronts with cooked 850's and sw flow, timing coinciding with max ISR in early afternoon. Maybe tickle 60 in spots? That would be awesome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Friday has gorgeous day potential in Eastern SNE - classic needle-threader in between fronts, timing coinciding with max ISR in early afternoon. Maybe tickle 60 in spots? That would be awesome. Tough before the solar min ends but yeah… good warm-up recognition for that sort of thing as we head into the nape time of year in about 3 weeks. Same look’ll pop 62 and likely blow MOS/machine numbers first week of Feb. Be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And people keep acting surprised ? (Maybe it’s not surprise) but when folks post maps and say “looks good “ , “pants tent” and chalk things up miss after miss to nuisances ..after a while it feels like it’s not as good as they have wished it to be for sne , seems like we have cutters *favored* set up with the mean trough in center of Great Lakes . Maybe we can get lucky as cold air is around if something goes south due to transient blocking or an over running set up . It maybe in a relative sense given that the pattern at least looks cold moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't say everything is going to plan at all. Funny being mocked for issuing updates from the guy who disappeared after his train derailed. Disappeared? I have posted every day but just because the pattern sucks and there is nothing to talk about its been limited. Please press 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And people keep acting surprised ? (Maybe it’s not surprise) but when folks post maps and say “looks good “ , “pants tent” and chalk things up miss after miss to nuisances ..after a while it feels like it’s not as good as they have wished it to be for sne , seems like we have cutters *favored* set up with the mean trough in center of Great Lakes . Maybe we can get lucky as cold air is around if something goes south due to transient blocking or an over running set up . I saw your FB posts Mr righteous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He could have easily been right. I was just breaking his balls in retaliation. Its just an example of how special seasons like 2010 are. Was as close to a classic pattern as it gets. Scott lives and dies every 6 hrs we all see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 You know it’s model runs like that GFS… Does NCEP really parameterize the models to deliberately stop storms from forming Heh. Just reading the onion during lunch… In the spirit of their headlines, “NCEP cites ability to stop storm genesis in forecast models a ringing success” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Was as close to a classic pattern as it gets. Scott lives and dies every 6 hrs we all see it. Nah, he just knows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Was as close to a classic pattern as it gets. Scott lives and dies every 6 hrs we all see it. Close, but the atmosphere dialed 2001 instead of 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Close, but the atmosphere dialed 2001 instead of 2010. Voice recognition fail? “Sorry, I didn’t understand what you said…please say that again..” ”2010!!!” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I saw your FB posts Mr righteous The one where I set up a go fund me page for injury /crashing while on the snow train.. don’t judge me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Tough before the solar min ends but yeah… good warm-up recognition for that sort of thing as we head into the nape time of year in about 3 weeks. Same look’ll pop 62 and likely blow MOS/machine numbers first week of Feb. Be interesting to see. Isnt your solar min end about 2/10….that’s a month away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Isnt your solar min end about 2/10….that’s a month away. I was watching snow melt on pavement in the sun today despite mid-20s and thought of Nape Season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And people keep acting surprised ? (Maybe it’s not surprise) but when folks post maps and say “looks good “ , “pants tent” and chalk things up miss after miss to nuisances ..after a while it feels like it’s not as good as they have wished it to be for sne , seems like we have cutters *favored* set up with the mean trough in center of Great Lakes . Maybe we can get lucky as cold air is around if something goes south due to transient blocking or an over running set up . Well sometimes it is just nuances….that can’t be seen at length. That’s just a fact with any pattern. And I don’t feel it takes any credence away from a pattern that looks nice from 5-8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 33 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: And people keep acting surprised ? (Maybe it’s not surprise) but when folks post maps and say “looks good “ , “pants tent” and chalk things up miss after miss to nuisances ..after a while it feels like it’s not as good as they have wished it to be for sne , seems like we have cutters *favored* set up with the mean trough in center of Great Lakes . Maybe we can get lucky as cold air is around if something goes south due to transient blocking or an over running set up . A fun exercise would be to post a bunch of months of H5 composites with the dates on each month blacked out and have people guess if the month was a big snow producer or not. My guess is a lot of people would get them wrong. Everyone is obsessed with looking for the "perfect pattern"....trying to find this unattainable fantasy pattern where cutters are not possible and every threat hits New England with accumulating snow. Example below: Guess which year each of these February maps were? And were any of them prolific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Maybe we get a Feb 2014 look. Some snow for all, Ray even gets to put me in his shed for one of the storms. A win for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we get a Feb 2014 look. Some snow for all, Ray even gets to put me in his shed for one of the storms. A win for all. 2nd map I posted with the trough axis centered over MN/WI and the SE ridge just offshore was February 2014. I had over 40 inches that month with zero cutters and a -4 temp departure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Isnt your solar min end about 2/10….that’s a month away. Yeeeeah it does but, transitions like that don’t happen on a dime. It’ll start being noticeably more twilight at 5:30 and slightly warmer sun to the skin and all that shit probably in the last week of January etc. I mean slight first. Just using that as a vague sort of metric. Folks shouldn’t be offended by that though - just in case - because most of the damage in 2015 (for ex) happened after the solar min ended that month. Really doesn’t mean jack shit until probably the ides of March. The snow retention may be affected because sun shining will start to shard the snow back … detail that only an excruciating nerd would know lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 That GEFS today is really pretty nice and very cold potentially. Even shows a little Atlantic blocking in the long range. I’m not saying this happens but if people are bothered with model discussing for fear it will fail I suggest logging off and get ahold of yourselves. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeeeeah it does but, transitions like that don’t happen on a dime. It’ll start being noticeably more twilight at 5:30 and slightly warmer sun to the skin and all that shit probably in the last week of January etc. I mean slight first. Just using that as a vague sort of metric. Folks shouldn’t be offended by that though - just in case - because most of the damage in 2015 (for ex) happened after the solar min ended that month. Really doesn’t mean jack shit until probably the ides of March. The snow retention may be affected because sun shining will start to shard the snow back … detail that only an excruciating nerd would know lol "Snow shards" should be in the snow weenie glossary. All of us weirdos know exactly what they are.....when the sun (specifically later in the winter when sun angle is higher) starts eating away at the snow banks and piles, they form razor-esque shards sticking out that we all recognize. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2nd map I posted with the trough axis centered over MN/WI and the SE ridge just offshore was February 2014. I had over 40 inches that month with zero cutters and a -4 temp departure. That was a fun month. Too bad March didn't follow being cold as hell, but not much in the snow dept. Just the beast storm at the end of the month clipping the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Also, the change is a starting inside of d10 now. So far we haven’t seen pushback. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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