paweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Not much traffic on the roads, trees are all glazed with ice. This is winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 36 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The minimal icy glaze that had existed earlier this morning is mostly gone and rain is the name of the game down here. I did a little deeper dive on evening NAM last night regarding thermals, and I'm gonna say it looks to be holding true for my area. It showed 31 at 7 am and by god....it was 31. It also showed eeking above freezin by 9-10 am and that looks to be on track as well. Currently 32 in etown and 33 at home (as per NWS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll admit - for someone who claims to be pretty good with PA Geography, your location had me stumped! I had to look it up to see where you are. Same. I pride myself on knowing every backwoods locale in this Commonwealth, yet had to look this one up. In other news, I'm a solid 9 miles ESE of you now so I should be able to serve as a pretty good warning signal to you for changeover events. Not really relevant today but when we're fighting off the sleet line I should be able to act as a decent barometer for what's coming your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, canderson said: Streets are ok but sidewalks this am wee slipperier than eels on an oil spill. Mod rain for a good while now so it’s not as bad. I almost went ass over teacup on second step of my front porch. My wife LOL'd pretty good. Said we coulda made money if that was on video. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Bones Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I'll admit - for someone who claims to be pretty good with PA Geography, your location had me stumped! I had to look it up to see where you are. That’s a good thing. We like to keep it off grid up this way. I’m not far from SB Elliott state park as the crow flies. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I did a little deeper dive on evening NAM last night regarding thermals, and I'm gonna say it looks to be holding true for my area. It showed 31 at 7 am and by god....it was 31. It also showed eeking above freezin by 9-10 am and that looks to be on track as well. Currently 32 in etown and 33 at home (as per NWS). Yep, I'm already scoring this one as another W in the NAM column. Sometimes the lower resolution of the GFS and other globals causes them to really struggle with finding those sneaky warm layers aloft. I always trust the higher-res models with regards to precip type. None of them are infallible but more times than not they nail the warm air intrusions while the globals struggle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, paweather said: Not much traffic on the roads, trees are all glazed with ice. This is winter! Hey were all used to this down here, and I agree 100%. This IS often what winter looks like down here. Maybe just maybe next week we are staring at a decent one. Not getting my hopes up to much, but it fits the pattern. I'm also quietly nervous about it happening, cause I need to get my kid in Philly airport Christmas Eve, and wanting to see her for Christmas is my #1 ask to Santa. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Same. I pride myself on knowing every backwoods locale in this Commonwealth, yet had to look this one up. In other news, I'm a solid 9 miles ESE of you now so I should be able to serve as a pretty good warning signal to you for changeover events. Not really relevant today but when we're fighting off the sleet line I should be able to act as a decent barometer for what's coming your way. I've thought about that already - as long as I'm online when you post, I should get the 30 second notice in timing from your changeover to mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yep, I'm already scoring this one as another W in the NAM column. Sometimes the lower resolution of the GFS and other globals causes them to really struggle with finding those sneaky warm layers aloft. I always trust the higher-res models with regards to precip type. None of them are infallible but more times than not they nail the warm air intrusions while the globals struggle. Count me on the Nam train as well. Also, I frequently rely on the HRRR for pinpoint forecasts, but its depiction of the columns was off on this one. And to think they are turning the Nam off.....sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hey were all used to this down here, and I agree 100%. This IS often what winter looks like down here. Maybe just maybe next week we are staring at a decent one. Not getting my hopes up to much, but it fits the pattern. I'm also quietly nervous about it happening, cause I need to get my kid in Philly airport Christmas Eve, and wanting to see her for Christmas is my #1 ask to Santa. Yep agree and hope that next week is a good score. Yeah understood on air flying for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Count me on the Nam train as well. Also, I frequently rely on the HRRR for pinpoint forecasts, but its depiction of the columns was off on this one. And to think they are turning the Nam off.....sigh. Upgrading it to something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Upgrading it to something else? Not unless something has changed. Last I saw it was set to be turned off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Not unless something has changed. Last I saw it was set to be turned off. wow. OK. I didn't hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: wow. OK. I didn't hear that. Maybe someone else here has more info but I read something about it a year or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've thought about that already - as long as I'm online when you post, I should get the 30 second notice in timing from your changeover to mine. Haha right. In all seriousness, I was thinking it may serve as like a 10-15 minute lead time. 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Count me on the Nam train as well. Also, I frequently rely on the HRRR for pinpoint forecasts, but its depiction of the columns was off on this one. And to think they are turning the Nam off.....sigh. Whoa whoa whoa, come again. Please elaborate on said NAM extermination. Perhaps I was caught out of the loop but haven't heard about this one. That would be terrible, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe someone else here has more info but I read something about it a year or two ago. you are correct, they are not putting anymore $$ or upgrades into it is what I also learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Temp holding like a bear at 32, .42" of rain has fallen so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Haha right. In all seriousness, I was thinking it may serve as like a 10-15 minute lead time. Whoa whoa whoa, come again. Please elaborate on said NAM extermination. Perhaps I was caught out of the loop but haven't heard about this one. That would be terrible, IMO. It was talked about on the MA thread a couple years ago and I saw some documentation on it but cannot find it now. So, I do not know all the details but know something is up. First the ETA and now the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Count me on the Nam train as well. Also, I frequently rely on the HRRR for pinpoint forecasts, but its depiction of the columns was off on this one. And to think they are turning the Nam off.....sigh. 29 minutes ago, paweather said: Upgrading it to something else? 22 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Haha right. In all seriousness, I was thinking it may serve as like a 10-15 minute lead time. Whoa whoa whoa, come again. Please elaborate on said NAM extermination. Perhaps I was caught out of the loop but haven't heard about this one. That would be terrible, IMO. NAM is to be replaced by FV3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, so_whats_happening said: NAM is to be replaced by FV3 That is right, thank you. Do you know dates and if the Nam is totally off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Pretty sharp cutoff line for the snow. Looks like Selinsgrove is getting hit hard with mixed precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Noticeable glaze on trees in Lancaster hills south of city.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That is right, thank you. Do you know dates and if the Nam is totally off? Unfortunately no but I would assume this may be the last winter for it as they fine tune FV3 more. Im sure it will still be in running just not in the spot light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 FV3 is what I named my peepee. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 It will be interesting to see how it handles the next couple hours. Says there may be a burst of snow in the Susquehanna Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Anyway, back to weather. Now that I know Rockton is being represented, I'll go ahead and address Bigler. I think it's raining. Sideways. It's raining sideways. Everything is encased in ice, and I've already fallen on my tookus twice letting out the dog. PennDot is trying their best. Failing, but trying. They deserve a gold star. But I gave all mine to FHS's nanny two winters ago for doing that thing with her tongue that basically summoned all the pink slime in Ghostbusters II. So one of you lot is on the hook for that. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Hi all. Temp has been very slowly creeping upwards and has now reached 32.0. It continues to ZR with maybe a few IP mixed in. Everything has a pretty good coating of ice except sidewalks and pavement. Apparently I had heavy freezing rain for a fair amount of time as my tipping bucket has recorded 0.82". But, for the moment it has stopped tipping due to internal ice buildup. I have my clear-vue gauge out and will get an official measurement later. I'm anxious to see if there is any kind of changeover to snow a little later. Will update accordingly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: It will be interesting to see how it handles the next couple hours. Says there may be a burst of snow in the Susquehanna Valley. Yeah thats been showing up, and it'd be nice to see down here in Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We may be in peak heating right now for 850mb. Nice cool pool forming through central PA and decent frontogenesis occurring across VA. Which could suggest we do get a random burst of snow/sleet occur and then back over to rain/FZR. Over the next 6 hours or so is when we see some of the heaviest precip so this would be the time we test how 'warm' the boundary is. We may get another fun time to watch as the surface low gets caught just east of 95 or offshore short range has been varying with placement of that low which could make a random chance of seeing another bit of snow/ sleet later on this evening. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: It will be interesting to see how it handles the next couple hours. Says there may be a burst of snow in the Susquehanna Valley. i'm not sure why i can't get this to load correctly, what time does it show for potential flip over to snow/sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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