Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[paweather]

GFS is startin 

[paweather]

System 1:

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, paweather said:

System 1:

It's time for a little southern tier county loving...a lot of areas south of Rt. 30 in Lanco ain't got nothin' yet this season. 

[Itstrainingtime]

It's currently 46 at Lancaster, officially. If the temp manages to make it to 50 (perhaps a long shot at this point) it would make today the 10th day in a row that the temp has reached at least 50. What a way to run a late December into early January winter time period.

[paweather]

System 2 a little to close to the coast for LSV but plenty of time to change. This includes system 1 but that was small:

[Itstrainingtime]

@paweather - thanks for the updates. Much appreciated!

[paweather]

This L just hangs out for hours on hours:

[GrandmasterB]

Would be great to cash in on a little something with system 1 and track crazy solutions for system 2.

[Bubbler86]

Here is the closeup of Kuch for System 1.  HGFS is only thing I see showing anything like this though.  Icon has a similar trajectory but little accums due to temps. 

 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

System 2 a little to close to the coast for LSV but plenty of time to change. This includes system 1 but that was small:

 

deal for next weekend definitely looks like one to watch.  Not sure im buying the nooner gfs solution offered, as it shows a retrograde to stall (IMO pattern doesnt support that as we'd need much more blocking, and pattern seems to look more progressive.  That said, it surely looks like some potential in the new pattern that is forthcoming

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the closeup of Kuch for System 1.  HGFS is only thing I see showing anything like this though.  Icon has a similar trajectory but little accums due to temps. 

 

Ah, the old "Snow TV" kind of system we often get in mid March...but not so often on January 9th.  

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Would be great to cash in on a little something with system 1 and track crazy solutions for system 2.

sure would and sure are.  that was one wonky run IMO.  Verbatim I'd still sign, as its time for some/any snow we can get.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ah, the old "Snow TV" kind of system we often get in mid March...but not so often on January 9th.  

Surface temps are just a degree or two lower on the GFS vs. icon though neither go below freezing in your area.  Just a prog vs reality as to what will eventually happen.  

[paweather]

Well at the very least we have something to track next week. Let's hope for the best. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I noticed the lights on at Whitetail so checked their webcams and it is not good.   The trails look sparsely covered.   40 and wet here this AM.   GFS and CMC now both have the coastal for next week, but temps limit the snow for the LSV.  More snow northern PA on the GFS but overall, there is not much cold air around. 

 

NAM, GFS, Icon still leaning toward an LSV 1-2" sloppy snow Sunday night with marginal 2M temps.  Rgem/Euro slide most of it south of PA. 

I don't know if Roundtop has better snowmaking or what, but a quick look this morning at Whitetail, Liberty and Roundtop's webcams and it sure looks like Roundtop is faring better with the spring weather than the other 2. They have more terrain open, and it looks like better coverage on the open  trails. 

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't know if Roundtop has better snowmaking or what, but a quick look this morning at Whitetail, Liberty and Roundtop's webcams and it sure looks like Roundtop is faring better with the spring weather than the other 2. They have more terrain open, and it looks like better coverage on the open  trails. 

I know for sure we had several days over here where it was much warmer than in the LSV, 

[pasnownut]

CMC for next weekend shows and I80 special.  I'd sign as I'll be at the cabin playin in it.

LONG ways to go, but like the direction we are headed in with chances starting to show up....even if they dont quite pan out for all of us

[canderson]

What’s the timing for that system next week? We’ll be in NYC for Broadway shows - shouldn’t be an issue but might need to monitor to leave earlier if snow causes train issues (usually not an issue) 

[Atomixwx]

What’s the timing for that system next week? We’ll be in NYC for Broadway shows - shouldn’t be an issue but might need to monitor to leave earlier if snow causes train issues (usually not an issue) 

Do you ever just... stay home?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

CMC for next weekend shows and I80 special.  I'd sign as I'll be at the cabin playin in it.

LONG ways to go, but like the direction we are headed in with chances starting to show up....even if they dont quite pan out for all of us

Looking at the ENS guidance wasnt a great look as we get beyond next weekend, so keep that in mind as the word transient came to mind when looking over them.  Thats way too far out to worry about for now tho.  Just keep in back of your mind when setting expectations.  

[pasnownut]

Snow has returned to the north woods.  IF any need to scratch their snow itch....the businesses would love your company right now.

http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/

 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Do you ever just... stay home?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Was home more than ever the last 3 years cause Covid and a sick kitten. She passed away last week (still heartbroken) so more travel now. Lots in the works. 

tl,dr: no, home is boring 

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Do you ever just... stay home?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I was about to post the same thing.    Really late nooners, Mostly cloudy, breezy, chilly and 43.  That is where we are now...43 is chilly. 

[Bubbler86]

EC is light rain showers for Sunday night    (light snow showers north of I80)

 

For next week the Paweather 540 line is already North of PA by Thursday.   it was in MD at the same time on the GFS.   Chicago here we come. 

[Itstrainingtime]

57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EC is light rain showers for Sunday night    (light snow showers north of I80)

 

For next week the Paweather 540 line is already North of PA by Thursday.   it was in MD at the same time on the GFS.   Chicago here we come. 

Operational Euro and EPS got really ugly. Discouraging, but we'll see what happens from here. 

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

deal for next weekend definitely looks like one to watch.  Not sure im buying the nooner gfs solution offered, as it shows a retrograde to stall (IMO pattern doesnt support that as we'd need much more blocking, and pattern seems to look more progressive.  That said, it surely looks like some potential in the new pattern that is forthcoming

I wouldn’t say it’s progressive, we really shorten the wavelengths in this period and we have Canadian ridging that allows this to undercut, and potentially even cut off. I think the big problem we’re going to come across with this potential system is going to be temps, something I’ve alluded to the other night in my post about the pattern during this timeframe. The 500mb feature positioning looks great for us considering the shortened wavelengths.

12z Euro v GFS height anomaly

 

Here’s the temp anomaly though for 12z Euro v GFS around the time of this storm being on the coast.

The SE is below average because it pulls enough cold down for - anomalies in that region but there’s no anomalous cold to be drawn down from Canada. The result if likely going to be a marginal event if this system comes to fruition. 

 

[paweather]

59 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EC is light rain showers for Sunday night    (light snow showers north of I80)

 

For next week the Paweather 540 line is already North of PA by Thursday.   it was in MD at the same time on the GFS.   Chicago here we come. 

You knew the King would be different. LOL

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, paweather said:

You knew the King would be different. LOL

The King and his or her whole court (much of it.) A huge shift from yesterday so have to let the work itself through the system as to it being valid but not ideal news.

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I wouldn’t say it’s progressive, we really shorten the wavelengths in this period and we have Canadian ridging that allows this to undercut, and potentially even cut off. I think the big problem we’re going to come across with this potential system is going to be temps, something I’ve alluded to the other night in my post about the pattern during this timeframe. The 500mb feature positioning looks great for us considering the shortened wavelengths.

12z Euro v GFS height anomaly

 

Here’s the temp anomaly though for 12z Euro v GFS around the time of this storm being on the coast.

The SE is below average because it pulls enough cold down for - anomalies in that region but there’s no anomalous cold to be drawn down from Canada. The result if likely going to be a marginal event if this system comes to fruition. 

 

This snow map (on the ground) is as much of a witness for temp issues as any other piece of evidence.  Saw this on the MA board.  Current temp issues have to play a part in this, and the lack of snow is going to make getting questionable cold down harder than we are used to this time of year.     If a system pulls down air from New England it does not help on some of those progs. 

 

 

 

   

[MAG5035]

In terms of surface features, the GFS has much more high support than the Euro does, with the Canadian being more similar to the GFS in that regard.

GFS vs Euro 186hr

Also, the feature preceding this (around Tue-Thur timeframe) looked to be a big difference in guidance. This was originally the feature I thought was going to be our amplification and storm potential (and the one I was worried about targeting south of us). On the GFS, you can see this develops way south and out to sea, but it is a much more significant feature and ends up eventually phasing the northern stream into a 50/50 type low. It’s just enough to pull down some cold (and place the surface highs in a more favorable place) and deliver the snowier GFS solution. Euro doesn’t do this, so while the low track of our system we’re watching is relatively similar when it gets to the coast, there’s no cold. 

Surface comparison at 144hr, you can see the Euro doesn’t even have much of an offshore system compared to the GFS

 

500mb comparison at 156hr. See the big difference downstream where the GFS phased a low and the Euro doesn’t. It actually ends up not mattering with the 500mb low still going just under us in both cases (a good thing) as we still have the Canadian ridging having the 500mb feature undercutting but this downstream thing may be a key thing in having any kind of cold in place to work with.

This is way more detailed analysis than i usually do for this range, but I suppose it’s good to illustrate all the differences in features and that we’re likely going to be hashing out just the general details of this for several more days with continued run to run differences in modeling.