Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That would be quite the upset pulled off by the HRRR. I think in most situations like this, the snowfall amounts tend to be smoothed out over longer distances...for instance, if MDT recorded 1", UNV might record 3.5", IPT 4", etc. 

Hard to imagine Harrisburg getting warning level snow while I get nothing, but that's why we love the weather. 

I actually changed the map to Kuch and it is not as much. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I actually changed the map to Kuch and it is not as much. 

It will be interesting to see if any PA station reports more than 6". Maybe north of Rt. 6?

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It will be interesting to see if any PA station reports more than 6". Maybe north of Rt. 6?

For WSW level snows, I like those "West Central areas" such as elevations around State College. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

For WSW level snows, I like those "West Central areas" such as elevations around State College. 

So...

@Atomixwx should be on high alert?

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So...

@Atomixwx should be on high alert?

I hear rumor that he just put his $$$ down and bought what the HRRR is selling. 

[Bubbler86]

Oh boy, the Nam now starts the LSV off with rain on the Pivotal maps (changes to frozen with evap cooling)  and has cut way back on sleet with the WAA.   TT looks different though.   Same model but TT has less rain at the front but does cut back on the sleet. 

[pawatch]

56 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

For those that are going to cash in, by the looks of the pattern, y'all stand a decent chance at holding it till christmas.  I just need to figure out how to hold onto my 1" of slop that I'm anticipating.  

 

 

You just need to move to move to Wellsboro for the winter. That would take care of a lot of your snow problems. 

[Atomixwx]

So...
[mention=2708]Atomixwx[/mention] should be on high alert?

I think I'm juuuusssst a bit too far west of State College for this one to be a big one. Ice will probably be the main issue here.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is the one I looked at. Kuchera is even worse.

 

19 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is the one I looked at. Kuchera is even worse.

Wow, thats quite a disparity.  I think NAM counts sleet (or maybe not, but thats surely an eye opener (goes for more coffee). 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh boy, the Nam now starts the LSV off with rain on the Pivotal maps (changes to frozen with evap cooling)  and has cut way back on sleet with the WAA.   TT looks different though. 

Was thinking about this when I saw the sky this morning...we're going to get well above freezing here today (I'm already up to 29.3) and it seems certain that temps won't fall much this evening due to clouds. We're going to need to rely on low dews to wet bulb down to freezing/below freezing to really see any impacts down this way. 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It will be interesting to see if any PA station reports more than 6". Maybe north of Rt. 6?

I was thinking Lycoming to Sullivan counties as per snow maps, and would think Poconos may do better w/ coastal (at elevation mind you).

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Was thinking about this when I saw the sky this morning...we're going to get well above freezing here today (I'm already up to 29.3) and it seems certain that temps won't fall much this evening due to clouds. We're going to need to rely on low dews to wet bulb down to freezing/below freezing to really see any impacts down this way. 

Yea, the Nam is now casting a bit with that.    Here is the column over my area when the rain starts.   I would argue that technically this should show as Freezing rain but still in the 30's at the surface.   Temp 35-40 above. 

 

 

 

 

[anthonyweather]

Hard to believe the GFS is still holding on to its snowy track.

At this point it’ll either score a coup (doubtful) or lose even more credibility.

Tough forecast here in my neck (Lehigh valley and low lying poconos)

But historically speaking I think C-1 or 2” is possible. We always go to sleet and ZR quick, and zr will be a non event here as temps quickly go above freezing by 4 or 5pm Thursday


.

[mahantango#1]

Went through the Tower City area yesterday afternoon Joliet area. There is still snow on the ground up there from Sundays event.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

Hard to believe the GFS is still holding on to its snowy track.

At this point it’ll either score a coup (doubtful) or lose even more credibility.

Tough forecast here in my neck (Lehigh valley and low lying poconos)

But historically speaking I think C-1 or 2” is possible. We always go to sleet and ZR quick, and zr will be a non event here as temps quickly go above freezing by 4 or 5pm Thursday


.

Sounds like a safe, reasonable call.   The big question for you would be any snow at the end from the coastal. 

[kdskidoo]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

For those that are going to cash in, by the looks of the pattern, y'all stand a decent chance at holding it till christmas.  I just need to figure out how to hold onto my 1" of slop that I'm anticipating.  

 

 

take the sleds and head to Potter county

[anthonyweather]

NAM is colder for sure, as it takes the low well off the coast similar to the GFS.


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[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, pawatch said:

You just need to move to move to Wellsboro for the winter. That would take care of a lot of your snow problems. 

I've got no snow problems.  Been here all my life, and while Wellsboro is an amazingly charming town, I enjoy visiting the area more than I would if I lived there.  

I'm just having fun as usual.  No sour grapes here.  Much more important things to fret about.

[Anduril]

Im having network issues at work and trying to read weather models on a cell phone is kinda painful but I really dont see how Harrisburg area is rain at the start or even up till noon-ish unless the mid-layers are much warmer than the surface. Im not expecting snow (or anything really plowable) but to think its not gonna be a slush/sleet/ice fest is weird

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

take the sleds and head to Potter county

Hey Kirby, hope all is well.

Yeah we still need to get them ready.  Got the Harleys outta the garage last evening, so they are next to prep.  

You still riding? 

[anthonyweather]

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[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

.

IF this verifies, that'd put alot of the NWS forecasts into a spot of difficulty.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

NAM is colder for sure, as it takes the low well off the coast similar to the GFS.


.

It is retrograding the system for areas north of PA (and far Northern PA) Friday.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Im having network issues at work and trying to read weather models on a cell phone is kinda painful but I really dont see how Harrisburg area is rain at the start or even up till noon-ish unless the mid-layers are much warmer than the surface. Im not expecting snow (or anything really plowable) but to think its not gonna be a slush/sleet/ice fest is weird

The 700-800 area is near 40 for me, on the Nam, when the precip starts tomorrow AM.  It does crash some and change to sleet for a bit. 

[Anduril]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 700-800 area is near 40 for me, on the Nam, when the precip starts tomorrow AM.  It does crash some and change to sleet for a bit. 

Is it pulling in a tongue of warmth from the ocean as the transfer to the coastal takes over?

[kdskidoo]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hey Kirby, hope all is well.

Yeah we still need to get them ready.  Got the Harleys outta the garage last evening, so they are next to prep.  

You still riding? 

we're doing ok, been kind of a rough year for us, we both lost our mothers this past summer.  but we're dealing with it best we can.  hope everything is good with you.  yes still riding.  just upgraded the sleds last season.  the wife and I now have the same sleds again, (2) 2021 600R's.  I thought we'd be good to go, but when we took the battery tenders off the other day and started them hers didn't want to turn over very good.  got the jumper pack and it fired right up so I'm not sure what's going on.  can't imagine a 2 year old battery would go bad especially with a tender on.  maybe the tender is bad, IDK but we ordered a new battery and is supposed to arrive before the weekend so maybe we'll head up.  looks like there'll be enough up north to get the first ride in.  lets hope for a cold and snowy winter, start to finish.

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Hard to believe the GFS is still holding on to its snowy track.

At this point it’ll either score a coup (doubtful) or lose even more credibility.

Tough forecast here in my neck (Lehigh valley and low lying poconos)

But historically speaking I think C-1 or 2” is possible. We always go to sleet and ZR quick, and zr will be a non event here as temps quickly go above freezing by 4 or 5pm Thursday


.

That is our reality in changeover storms...almost without fail, sleet and ZR comes earlier, and moves much farther north, than predicted. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Is it pulling in a tongue of warmth from the ocean as the transfer to the coastal takes over?

Here is the 850 map near the start of the precip.  It is WAA so the precip is due to the warm push from the Southwest.

 

[GrandmasterB]

NAM blasts rain all the way to NY border. Tough to discount it when we’ve seen warmth win out in these situations.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

we're doing ok, been kind of a rough year for us, we both lost our mothers this past summer.  but we're dealing with it best we can.  hope everything is good with you.  yes still riding.  just upgraded the sleds last season.  the wife and I now have the same sleds again, (2) 2021 600R's.  I thought we'd be good to go, but when we took the battery tenders off the other day and started them hers didn't want to turn over very good.  got the jumper pack and it fired right up so I'm not sure what's going on.  can't imagine a 2 year old battery would go bad especially with a tender on.  maybe the tender is bad, IDK but we ordered a new battery and is supposed to arrive before the weekend so maybe we'll head up.  looks like there'll be enough up north to get the first ride in.  lets hope for a cold and snowy winter, start to finish.

Sorry for the challenging year.  Doing as best we can here.  Yeah that's a little soon for batteries to go, but congrats on the new toys.  Hoping you get it resolved soon.  Send pics if you go.  All the best to you and yours.