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Winter Banter Thread


Rjay
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On 12/28/2022 at 10:26 AM, FPizz said:

They didn't.  Most brought nothing besides a new shot of cold air. Some brought a dusting to an inch and once in a blue moon a 2 to 4

Well now they don't even seem to make it here.  The one we had last week was just mostly cloudy skies for a bit.  On the plus side....I got to take a picture of an amazing sight.  Even in all this cold weather....the wild parrots are doing well, just huddled together trying to stay warm lol.

 

5C270402resizeauto.jpg

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On 12/29/2022 at 2:54 PM, donsutherland1 said:

To preemptively address a tweet concerning extremes and climate change:

image.png.ff44fa475c2134404709754070e63c36.png

The line of argument is that because extremes happened in the past, extremes cannot be linked to climate change. In fact, because synoptic events occur within the context of, among other things, climate forcings, that line of argument is flawed. There is no compelling statistical or physical reason internal variability and a warmer climate must be mutually exclusive outcomes.

With climate change, one has witnessed a continuation of extremes. When it comes to temperatures, one has seen a decided shift in extremes toward warmer outcomes reflecting the warming of the climate. For purposes of illustration, I compared minimum temperatures for New York City for the December 1891-1920 and 1991-2020 periods.  

Statistically, 3-sigma events exist in both regimes. But the meaning of a 3-sigma event differs. The December 25, 2022 low temperature of 7° was a 3-sigma event. In the climate regime of a century ago, a 3-sigma event would have had a low temperature below 2°.

Below is a graph with the distribution of daily low temperatures for both climate regimes. Notice the rightward shift in the distribution of low temperatures (warming). Both regimes still have tails, but the numbers in the tails differ reflecting the warming of the climate (urban heat island and anthropogenic warming).

image.png.87b49531f67e5d60bbb6522a92df460b.png

1966-67 is listed among my favorite types of winters and years and why sometimes very snowy winters follow very hot summers....when an el nino is ending (which happened early in 1966) there is a heat release and that resulted in the very wonderfully hot and dry summer of 1966, which was followed by a pseudo la nina the next winter..... so the combo of the ending el nino's STJ jet combined with the arctic shots that come from a la nina (it wasn't officially, but neutral is good enough for me) gave us the amazing winter we had that year.  It bears a lot of similarities to 1995-96....when we had the mild January after the blizzard and then a roaring return to winter in February and March.  And that was also a very hot summer followed by a very snowy winter and also an el nino followed by a la nina....and it happened again in 2010-11 (very hot and dry summer followed by a snowy winter because of an el nino followed by a la nina)!

 

 

 

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