MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 From the Mid Atlantic thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m actually more concerned about this whole thing weakening in the guidance. The total manifold of the trough has been steadily losing mechanics in small percentages the last 6 consecutive runs. It could even end up being ironically weak and S Oh man...you always queef in the punch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 this is a significant trend at 500mb. makes sense to have a shove S given the anomalous 50/50 and ridging in central Canada this is certainly worth keeping an eye on 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS is a snowstorm next weekend. Still trending too.... A full day later then the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 It’s trending much better , that’s a crush job , but damn it keeps trending back a day Every other day . Precip began at hr 192 late nite 0z and on tonites 0z run . But wow big improvements 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Yeah just looking at that 500 mbar evolution with a multi contoured mid level quasi cut off low deepening further while moving slowly underneath Long Island …there’s no way to estimate the frontogenic pounding that’s capable of in that evolution. just be aware of model magnification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh man...you always queef in the punch Kevin hit the nail on the head a couple years back lol.. when he said Tip seems to always go opposite of what the current consensus might be. Could just be coincidental, or not? Who knows? When things don’t look so good, he’s showing/explaining why he feels it may improve. And when it starts looking better/good, he’s showing why it may shit the bed. Funny how that goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh man...you always queef in the punch Sorry dude. That’s unfortunately realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Kevin hit the nail on the head a couple years back lol.. when he said Tip seems to always go opposite of what the current consensus might be. Could just be coincidental, or not? Who knows? When things don’t look so good, he’s showing/explaining why he feels it may improve. And when it starts looking better/good, he’s showing why it may shit the bed. Funny how that goes. He's just playing devil's advocate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: He's just playing devil's advocate Ya that’s cool..was just pointing that out. No offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a significant trend at 500mb. makes sense to have a shove S given the anomalous 50/50 and ridging in central Canada this is certainly worth keeping an eye on I don’t think it’s done either, gfs has a progressive bias so it could be breaking down the -NAO too early. So the storm could easily slow down even more, increasing QPF. Big Euro run tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Kevin hit the nail on the head a couple years back lol.. when he said Tip seems to always go opposite of what the current consensus might be. Could just be coincidental, or not? Who knows? When things don’t look so good, he’s showing/explaining why he feels it may improve. And when it starts looking better/good, he’s showing why it may shit the bed. Funny how that goes. It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s a reality that’s not going away just because it needs to placate this addiction to model cinema shit. Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s not going away just because it is placates this addiction to model cinema shit. Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from youSorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you I was just breaking your ballz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s not going away just because it is placates this addiction to model cinema shit. Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from youSorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you You bring up a valid point. I’ve noticed that storms get weaker a lot as we go into the mid range. Sometimes the models re strengthen in the short range and sometimes they dont, we will have to see what happens with it. Hopefully it only weakens a little rather than becoming a shredded mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s not going away just because it is placates this addiction to model cinema shit. Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from youSorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you Hey no worries..show us why it’s doubtful. I’m cool with that from a man or your wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Canadian has an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 You can clearly tell that the GFS is too warm in the boundary layer again at that range, because there’s no way given that 700 500 mbar integrated evolution that that kind of sfc evolution is going to happen unless there’s a lack of cold air north of the circulation - which that’s unlikely given the antecedent conditions with the block and so forth. So yeah we’re talking about a solution that’s above the 85th percentile at 180 hours ? Mm. wouldnt shock me if this goes back the other way for a run or two before it comes back again but I suspect in the end the result is S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hey no worries..show us why it’s doubtful. I’m cool with that from a man or your wisdom. I’m not saying it’s doubtful… I’m telling you factually the models have been trending weaker when moving mid range events into the shorter term for a decade. I mean it’s something that has been going on. We’d be remiss not to consider that trend. by the way that’s a 1978 polar high W-N wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m not saying it’s doubtful… I’m telling you factually the models have been trending weaker when moving mid range events in the shorter term for a decade. I mean it’s something that has been going on. We’d be remiss not to consider that trend. by the way that’s a 1978 polar high W-N wow No I get what you’re saying..and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GEFS continues the trend of more CAD, a weaker bowling ball S/W and lower downstream heights 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 oops! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS continues the trend of more CAD, a weaker bowling ball S/W and lower downstream heights Holy frieken high pressure…I don’t know the last time/if ever I’ve seen such a sprawling beast of a H like that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: oops! Wow what a press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The 16th storm could be it. West based blocking and excellent EPO conditions. A 50/50 type low ahead of it. It'll also follow a noteworthy -4 AO which has historically been a great snow signal for December 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Ya , I mean wow that is a crazy high pressure you kind of wonder how much this will press or if that trend will end very soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya , I mean wow that is a crazy high pressure you kind of wonder how much this will press or if that trend will end very soon That thing is absolutely massive in scope… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Holy frieken high pressure…I don’t know the last time/if ever I’ve seen such a sprawling beast of a H like that? 12-16-07 may be a pretty good analog 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Euro time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nah. I thought that once a long time ago. But nope. James was James. He wrote his book. Then he passed. RIP I know, I was 93% just joking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just crushed on the Euro. That’d be a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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