RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not necessarily.....guidance is still adjusting to the block. They kinda go hand in hand though. Stronger/south block presses the 12th more into a retrograding 50/50. I didn’t necessarily mean a stronger 12th low leads to a better result for the 16th. Bad wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: We know these -PNA troughs typically do, so I don't mind a suppressed option this far out. Bbbbuutt it can’t go to Cuba 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We know what these -PNA troughs typically do, so I don't mind a suppressed option this far out. Yea. I like where the gfs and cmc are atm. Eps had some good solutions as well. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I’m not sure how relevant this is, but the La Niña increased in strength over the past week. It’s down to -1.1 now in the enso 3.4 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I like where the gfs and cmc are atm. Eps had some good solutions as well. So far so good. For a pattern as chaotic and unpredictable as this one is at 6-7 days lead, I think it's hard to be too upset about where guidance is. Are we getting a huge snowstorm? Probably not, but we have a legit shot at one and that's all you can ask for a week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: They kinda go hand in hand though. Stronger/south block presses the 12th more into a retrograding 50/50. I didn’t necessarily mean a stronger 12th low leads to a better result for the 16th. Bad wording. Kind of, but not entirely. It depends on the exact positioning. There is a general relationship... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m not sure how relevant this is, but the La Niña increased in strength over the past week. It’s down to -1.1 now in the enso 3.4 region. NBD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GEFS has gone from a cutter to a coastal in one model cycle, as predicted given the block 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We know what these -PNA troughs typically do, so I don't mind a suppressed option this far out. I like where ens mean is at with plenty of spread NW at this lead time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I like where ens mean is at with plenty of spread NW at this lead time. Yea, I am not worried about the 12z GFS given the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I like where ens mean is at with plenty of spread NW at this lead time. Just thinking with a -4AO block an offshore track is possible, albeit unlikely to be a MISS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS has gone from a cutter to a coastal in one model cycle, as predicted given the block Lots of folks didn’t believe in the power of the block though…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I just don't want a mild solution and hopefully that looks to be the case. I'm done with London-esque weather where every time I open my door, 20 winter months try to come in like it's a 1950s sci-fi movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just don't want a mild solution and hopefully that looks to be the case. I'm done with London-esque weather where every time I open my door, 20 winter months try to come in like it's a 1950s sci-fi movie. It looks to be the case? Or It looks not to be the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: It looks to be the case? It looks not to be the case? Yeah, I meant that it looks like we are not seeing a mild solution. As in cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/first-major-winter-storm-potential.html First Call for this will be Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 FWIW the GEPS is also going to show more coastals… farther S Plains ULL and lower heights over the NE US 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, I meant that it looks like we are not seeing a mild solution. As in cutter. Ok that’s what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just don't want a mild solution and hopefully that looks to be the case. I'm done with London-esque weather where every time I open my door, 20 winter months try to come in like it's a 1950s sci-fi movie. But the 850’s and 925’s from 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: FWIW the GEPS is also going to show more coastals… farther S Plains ULL and lower heights over the NE US That block is no joke. Maybe not Cuba..but Bermuda could be in the game? Hope not that much south, but she’s a pressin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But the 850’s and 925’s from 18z! That's not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Ukmet has a warm coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ukmet has a warm coastal Its always at one extreme end of the spectrum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's not a cutter. Just remind him he already cancelled the first 3 weeks of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just remind him he already cancelled the first 3 weeks of the month. We lost the first 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We lost the first 2 Guess your punting Sunday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Guess your punting Sunday? Dec 1-10 is basically 2 weeks . It sucked 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dec 1-10 is basically 2 weeks . It sucked You can't even spin that. So closer to one week vs 2 weeks. Talk about fake news. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can't even spin that. So closer to one week vs 2 weeks. Talk about fake news. 10 out of 31 days of the best winter month . Completely lost to warmth and heavy rains. Shortened an already short window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Vort coming in stronger on 12z Euro for Sunday... should be more widespread and better snowfall than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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