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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS :wub:

Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.

1670587200-KKY661ThD2U.png

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo.  That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous  and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. 

 

,

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo.  That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous  and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. 

 

,

We overdue for a wire to wire winter of HL blocking. Get it established early. In addition to climo, I am a believer in persistence.

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo.  That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous  and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. 

 

,

yup! the EPS is absolutely loaded. here is a 7 day loop of the preloading pattern for 18”+ snowfalls in NYC, and you can see how you take the EPS around a week later and this occurs. really exciting look!

btw, the preloading composites for NYC and BWI for the 18”+ events are very similar, so this is still useful for you guys. many of the storms that gave NYC all time amounts were great for the MA as well (2016 and 1996 come to mind)

2343D05D-3585-4D8B-9124-5C1454D2BD0A.gif.26b7958cf7e2d46e388c9b4a80f5cc47.gif

i’m also inclined to believe that the block is legit since it comes from a retrograding Scandinavian HP… those are known to cause our best periods of blocking

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You need to post more dude. Things are looking promising. We are on the doorstep of Dec and the advertised look is stellar for a change. Sure all sorts of shit can go wrong, but rather the guidance be teasing us with something favorable vs the usual shutout look lol.

 I am pleased with what I see. But I’ve been incredibly busy for many reasons. And you, wxusaf and Bob have done an excellent job.  Plus I think most in this sub now know what we’re looking at. It’s an incredibly knowledgeable group in general. Given how busy I’ve been just didn’t feel it was necessary to make some long winded post saying in essence “ditto”. But I suspect if this pattern is anything close to advertised we will begin seeing discreet threats soon and rest assured I’ll be around. 

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43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 I am pleased with what I see. But I’ve been incredibly busy for many reasons. And you, wxusaf and Bob have done an excellent job.  Plus I think most in this sub now know what we’re looking at. It’s an incredibly knowledgeable group in general. Given how busy I’ve been just didn’t feel it was necessary to make some long winded post saying in essence “ditto”. But I suspect if this pattern is anything close to advertised we will begin seeing discreet threats soon and rest assured I’ll be around. 

Even your “ditto” post add so much value around here. Look forward to hearing your thoughts when time permits

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS :wub:

Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.

1670587200-KKY661ThD2U.png

I Remember the GFS on Tuesday, November 22nd on its 12z run was showing a 4-8" snowstorm on December 8th coming up from the southwest moving northeast off the Virgina Capes. 

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22 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I Remember the GFS on Tuesday, November 22nd on its 12z run was showing a 4-8" snowstorm on December 8th coming up from the southwest moving northeast off the Virgina Capes. 

I think most of that was sleet though :weep:, unless you accounted for that too.

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