Terpeast Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Okay here goes, back in the game. Dusting off my research skills and we'll see how it goes. Outlook is based on 2 things: - Backward looking indicators using historical analogs for La Nina, +QBO, -PDO, -IOD, and high solar activity - Forward looking indicators such as atlantic SSTs and wildcards like high stratosphere vapor content (Hunga Tonga) My best analogs are: - 2000-01 (no surprise) - 2011-12 - 1985-86 I've also looked at 2017-18 and 2008-09, but didn't put a whole lot of weight on them. I was going to look at hurricane activity and years of low ACE, but I threw that out the window since things have been picking up in the atlantic. My DFJ maps using my analogs: Commentary: I expect La Nina to maintain moderate through January and then weaken into March, when everything also trends neutral. This outlook also banks on a milder than normal November, then as the -IOD trends toward neutral, the winter will become milder (especially February) as we go on after a cold start. Just based on these analogs alone, this is not supposed to be a productive winter. BUT... based on recent trends in the stratosphere and model forecasts, there's a chance that we may get a little bit of help from a negative -NAO if and whenever the pacific cooperates. The opposing factor is high solar activity and +QBO, but we can have a decent winter despite those (e.g. 13-14 & 14-15). I don't see the entire eastern half of the CONUS being colder than normal, but stronger signal seems to be in the upper midwest and pacific northwest. Also see a strong signal of above normal temps around the 4 corners in the west (as I expected). I also think we go dry or near normal precip almost across the board, except maybe OH valley / midwest. And the part you're most interested in... Mid-atlantic Snowfall First, let's talk storm tracks. I see primarily cutters and clippers, some suppressed tracks, and I expect more than a few miller Bs to blow up off the EC and drop the hammer on NYC & north. One of those may very well be historic. (NYC-Boston corridor - watch out, make sure your roofs are in good shape!) As for this sub, I think slightly below average snowfall is the best we're gonna do. Unfortunately, there's a fair chance that we'll get a dud like 2011-12. I'm leaning towards a combo of 99-00/00-01 and maybe even a 85-86, which would be decent for us. Snow Predictions: - DCA: 7-12" - IAD: 9-15" - BWI: 10-16"Temp Predictions: - Nov: +2 - Dec: -2 - Jan: -1 - Feb: +3 - Mar: 0 17 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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