Central PA Fall 2022

[Superstorm]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I snuck in a 31 a few weeks ago but the grass is spring-like green and growing. I mowed once again on Saturday before the PSU game. 

My station has yet to break the 32F barrier (32.4F the lowest).  That should change this week.

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I snuck in a 31 a few weeks ago but the grass is spring-like green and growing. I mowed once again on Saturday before the PSU game. 

I mowed on Saturday too. Hopefully the last time for 2022.

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I snuck in a 31 a few weeks ago but the grass is spring-like green and growing. I mowed once again on Saturday before the PSU game. 

You mowed... then PSU mowed UMD. 

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

My station has yet to break the 32F barrier (32.4F the lowest).  That should change this week.

MDT's low so far is 33.  I would think getting into the second half of Nov with no freeze is fairly late though I do not have any data to confirm or deny.   It happened in 2020. 

[Greensnow]

BGM

As is typical with early season events, snow accumulations will
be somewhat elevation dependent with the valleys seeing less
than the hilltops. This should especially be the case across
Northeast PA, where any wintry mix may completely change over to
rain by early Wednesday morning there. Ice accumulations should
be rather light, mainly less than a tenth of an inch, and
mainly across the higher elevations of the Poconos and
Catskills. Widespread 2-4 inch snowfall accumulations is looking
more and more like a possibility.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, pawatch said:

NWS is on the snow train.

Not quite reaching the southern tier though.

 

I hope it works out, but looking at thermals on GFS....marginal 850's in southern 1/2 of state w/ SSW winds makes me a bit nervous for many south of 80 (save Laurels).  Hey, its great to see no matter.  Getting closer for sure.  BTW, dont look at the 6z for post turk day....hint....hope you have  boat , but that's post 240 so I wouldnt lose much sleep.  Your 30" may be back at noon 

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

those maps would make some Hunters happy i believe. 

30"...no thanks.  Drop the 0 and were happy thank you.  

we got 8" 2 a couple years back, heavy wet, and my gosh it was so so tiring to get around.  

Many moons ago we tried to get around in 24" in Tioga, and it was impossible and NOONE was out. 

Plus we need deer to putting lbs on for overwinter health, and an early start like that post mating season, is really really hard on them.  Dont want that.  

[Bubbler86]

I think the 12Z HRRR snow map is a good stab right now for the LSV as it cools the column after a period of rain and becomes an elevation dependent snow.  Surface temps do not cooperate. 

 

[Voyager]

So it looks like a first accumulating snow for some of you. That's great!

It may be chilly out here right now, but at least I don't have to deal with that...for now.

[anotherman]

So it looks like a first accumulating snow for some of you. That's great!
It may be chilly out here right now, but at least I don't have to deal with that...for now.

“I’m not worried about winter weather!”

This board:

[pasnownut]

Here's your "money" panel.....spend it wisely.

 

700/850"s for same timestamp. SSW winds at surface  heres 850's w/ 700's showin same wind.  Not gonna do it for I80 southers. (again, except laurels/elevation lucky ones). Hope I'm wrong.  

 

[paweather]

CTP not buying any snow for the LSV. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Here's your "money" panel.....spend it wisely.

 

700/850"s for same timestamp. SSW winds at surface  heres 850's w/ 700's showin same wind.  Not gonna do it for I80 southers. (again, except laurels/elevation lucky ones). Hope I'm wrong.  

 

If this were the first week of December, that would be white rain for the LSV. I'm just glad to see potential showing up already. The lat couple of years we've been begging for snow during prime climo.

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If this were the first week of December, that would be white rain for the LSV. I'm just glad to see potential showing up already. The lat couple of years we've been begging for snow during prime climo.

agreed.  I'm just trying to temper expectations on this early opportunity.  NAM can be a bit overdone and while i want it as much as the next guy, like you, I think the + takeaway is that opps are starting to show and an earlyish start may be evolving.  

Heres the 700's that dont help the column for us 80 southers (if one looks at wind direction).  If it mixes down an dynamic cooling occurs, then maybeso.  Lets hope for last minute changes, as it wont take much to see CTP's map have alot more merit than my take.  

[pasnownut]

Last point I'm trying to make for us 80 southers, is that based on wind direction, we've got mid 30's right on M/D line, and IF this happens, its dynamic cooling is the only way to get some to the promise land...so hope for heavy precip and roll em....verbatim laurels should be fine.

 

 

[Atomixwx]

Very cold, wintry morning around these parts. Trace of snow overnight survived on cold surfaces and things around here look good for tomorrow.

Time to nickle and dime a normal.

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[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Very cold, wintry morning around these parts. Trace of snow overnight survived on cold surfaces and things around here look good for tomorrow.

Time to nickle and dime a normal.

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Just curious...what is your normal seasonal snow total where you're at? I know you get snow often, and it is often nickel and dime, but I don't know what it all adds up to on average. 

[Atomixwx]

I would have to look that up because I have only spent the better part of two winters (this will be a second full winter) up here. Prior to that, I lived in the Cumberland and Lower Susquehanna Valleys (Palmyra, Carlisle, and Wormleysburg respectively) from 2005-2019, so I don't have any first-hand, anecdotal number for you, sooooo...

The image I see here suggests 48-54, but I do know (based on the seven microclimates between Hershey and DuBois post from last season), that I reside in a location where snow tends to jackpot a little more than areas just a few miles away. Last winter it was close to 60".

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[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I would have to look that up because I have only spent the better part of two winters (this will be a second full winter) up here. Prior to that, I lived in the Cumberland and Lower Susquehanna Valleys (Palmyra, Carlisle, and Wormleysburg respectively) from 2005-2019, so I don't have any first-hand, anecdotal number for you, sooooo...

The image I see here suggests 48-54, but I do know (based on the seven microclimates between Hershey and DuBois post from last season), that I reside in a location where snow tends to jackpot a little more than areas just a few miles away. Last winter it was close to 60".

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Thanks - that's why I asked. You could drive 90 or so minutes from your place and depending on the direction go from an average of just over 2' to over 8'. 

[Itstrainingtime]

 

No one got screwed like Lancaster did last year...

[pasnownut]

Seeing that map and knowing philly doubled KLNS makes me cringe.

Hoping this year isnt as horrid round our area....but we'll see.  Not looking like a big winter but anything close to normal is a win IMO.

 

[Atomixwx]

Thanks - that's why I asked. You could drive 90 or so minutes from your place and depending on the direction go from an average of just over 2' to over 8'. 

I will say, being in the Harrisburg metro for the 2010 back-to-backers and growing up in lower Huntingdon county, I do genuinely miss nor'easters up here, but there is something to say for getting a snowpack that lives from December into February with weekly touch-ups.

I still have yet to chase after lake effect. I'm only three and some hours from downtown Buffalo, I can be in the south towns in a couple of hours, so I would love to do that sometime just to see something rival the banding that occurs when jackpotting a coastal.

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[paweather]

Close but ....

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Close but ....

 

Thermals a tad better for some and a tad worse for others.  Probably noise, but a slightly weaker SLP w/ less precip (a la 12z) will not help turn wet to white for some.

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thermals a tad better for some and a tad worse for others.  Probably noise, but a slightly weaker SLP w/ less precip (a la 12z) will not help turn wet to white for some.

Tomorrow is not it for the LSV though it is nice to have a threat early, 

[paweather]

Nooner 42 and cloudy. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU on tomorrow:

 

(1/2) A double-barreled storm system will bring periods of rain to southeastern PA from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The counterclockwise flow around the primary area of low pressure will partially disrupt the north-to-northeasterly flow of cold air to its southeast..

 

 

(2/2) Thus, warmer air being drawn north/west into the LSV should face little resistance. However, the rain may still start as a brief period of wet snow.. or mixed rain and snow.. N/W of I-81. Snow won't accumulate on roadways, but a quick coating - 1" is possible on ridgetops

 

 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU on tomorrow:

 

(1/2) A double-barreled storm system will bring periods of rain to southeastern PA from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The counterclockwise flow around the primary area of low pressure will partially disrupt the north-to-northeasterly flow of cold air to its southeast..

 

 

(2/2) Thus, warmer air being drawn north/west into the LSV should face little resistance. However, the rain may still start as a brief period of wet snow.. or mixed rain and snow.. N/W of I-81. Snow won't accumulate on roadways, but a quick coating - 1" is possible on ridgetops

 

 

MU has himself a case of the "I agree with the HRRR's"

 

Late nooner...45 and partly cloudy, 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

MU has himself a case of the "I agree with the HRRR's"

 

Late nooner...45 and partly cloudy, 

Interesting that you've gone from 32 to 45 so far today, while here the temp has only risen from 38 up to 42. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting that you've gone from 32 to 45 so far today, while here the temp has only risen from 38 up to 42. 

The life of a mountain man.  There are some upper 40's and low 50's on Wunderground just to my west/lower elevation.     I see over near the Susky most temps are 40-43.