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Winter 2022-23 Discussion


Hoosier
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7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I was asking if the Petoskey event was a SSW I really didn't know lol only guessed. 

Oh. Yes that week long LES event in Dec '01 was just stuck on a WSW trajectory making Petoskey the winner in The Mitt. Not even sure what totals were elsewhere. I was really disappointed in S. Bend as that wind direction is a no-go and the potential historic outbreak had been spoken of for days prior. 

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6 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Oh. Yes that week long LES event in Dec '01 was just stuck on a WSW trajectory making Petoskey the winner in The Mitt. Not even sure what totals were elsewhere. I was really disappointed in S. Bend as that wind direction is a no-go and the potential historic outbreak had been spoken of for days prior. 

 

Finally someone answers that question I had been wondering with that event. Wsw flow. Wow! That left 18-24+ around here which is beyond incredible for this far inland. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm right in the middle of that but I think due to the warm lake it goes 5-10 miles north with the heaviest bands. The models always underestimate the northern extent in early season events. 

I'm confused.  Like, why?  What is the mechanism where a warm lake would cause the band to end up farther north?

On another note, I can't image getting fringed by something like this.  What a disappointment that would be.  Sure, you could take a quick drive, but it's just not quite the same as having it in your backyard.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm confused.  Like, why?  What is the mechanism where a warm lake would cause the band to end up farther north?

On another note, I can't image getting fringed by something like this.  What a disappointment that would be.  Sure, you could take a quick drive, but it's just not quite the same as having it in your backyard.

For Lake Erie, a thermal trough will likely develop within the
nearly 20C delta T between the lake surface and 850mb. This will
likely back the surface winds 10-20 degrees such that instead of a
westerly flow. Its a micro climate weather pattern, only happens in early season LES events. 
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4 hours ago, Toro99 said:

Absolute rip city as these cells come through in SW Kent (Byron Center). A. lot of superintendents going to get caught with their pants down brining students to school in the middle of a WSW. One district in SW MI cancelled (Constantine). 

Per GRR, the worst/heaviest for some may hold off until Saturday. The 2nd Arctic front blasts through GR mid-day. 12k NAM reflecting a pretty intense squall line.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

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44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
For Lake Erie, a thermal trough will likely develop within the
nearly 20C delta T between the lake surface and 850mb. This will
likely back the surface winds 10-20 degrees such that instead of a
westerly flow. Its a micro climate weather pattern, only happens in early season LES events. 

Ahhh ok.  Makes sense.

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57 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

NWS Point and click has me with 15" by Sunday.  Not liking how things are starting off today but maybe there will be some improvement later on.

 

Wasn't really supposed to ramp up till later today and tonight. Radar trends looking better. Might be one of the best set ups we see. 

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4 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Wasn't really supposed to ramp up till later today and tonight. Radar trends looking better. Might be one of the best set ups we see. 

I know, just had many LES events underperform over the past several years.  This seems like one of these events where it is go big or go home.

 

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3 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

NWS Point and click has me with 15" by Sunday.  Not liking how things are starting off today but maybe there will be some improvement later on.

Absolutely ripping right now and its getting more steady as opposed to the on-off squalls earlier today.  I notice more accumulation on the roof of the car than on the ground.  If the ratio was classic LES this would be 4” per hour stuff.  Its just somewhat wet and the ground is a bit warm…. thus compacting a lot.

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4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Absolutely ripping right now and its getting more steady as opposed to the on-off squalls earlier today.  I notice more accumulation on the roof of the car than on the ground.  If the ratio was classic LES this would be 4” per hour stuff.  Its just somewhat wet and the ground is a bit warm…. thus compacting a lot.

Not sure about my home, but not much here in Zeeland.

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4 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Not sure about my home, but not much here in Zeeland.

It's really hit/miss showery and ratios are not high, but when it comes it absolutely rips.  There is about 4" here on the grass, 2" on the driveway, and 5" on parked cars that haven't been brushed off.  The super heavy band that was over me a few minutes ago seems to be shifting south now though. 

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9 hours ago, Toro99 said:

Absolute rip city as these cells come through in SW Kent (Byron Center). A. lot of superintendents going to get caught with their pants down brining students to school in the middle of a WSW. One district in SW MI cancelled (Constantine). 

I notice it's very cellular like we sometimes get in the afternoon during March/April cold unstable spells.

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58 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I notice it's very cellular like we sometimes get in the afternoon during March/April cold unstable spells.

Yeah, I had had high hopes when I was in one of those cells this morning, but they don’t last and have been very spotty. Accumulations are probably still on track, but it doesn’t feel like a “warning” type event. Not sure I can remember a long-duration-super-spotty/choppy LES storm. Hoping for more consistency through tomorrow/sat. I mean going from 4”/hr rates with dendrites the size of quarters, to nothing for a couple hours in the heart of a WSW is actually brutal for some reason

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2 hours ago, Toro99 said:

Yeah, I had had high hopes when I was in one of those cells this morning, but they don’t last and have been very spotty. Accumulations are probably still on track, but it doesn’t feel like a “warning” type event. Not sure I can remember a long-duration-super-spotty/choppy LES storm. Hoping for more consistency through tomorrow/sat. I mean going from 4”/hr rates with dendrites the size of quarters, to nothing for a couple hours in the heart of a WSW is actually brutal for some reason

Yea.  Eastern Allegan and western Barry have had more persistent coverage.  There has been a cutoff where to the north its very scattered with a lack of good banding, especially very close to the lake.  

I think maybe the dendrite growth zone is a little high and being squeezed up against the inversion layer.  There is a fairly deep liquid cloud layer and I think that can produce a cellular pattern with dry gaps wherever there isn’t enough upward motion to feed the DGZ, despite ample moisture.  It is more W than WSW at this point as well.

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20 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Hoosier, your new avatar made me lol. For those of us with December birthdays, we can stand behind that hat.

Glad you like it.  

It's still a little early, but I think this is the year we shake things up and have a more wintry December than what's happened lately.

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