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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2022 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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by the way, the air is so soupy this morning. Its been awhile for these ripe conditions to form but I really think some good boomers will be popping with some squall lines late this afternoon and into the evening. Its been a long time ( since June?)  The drought was killed off this weekend and especially after tonight. Too late for the crops though.  Really think an east based La Nina will form in  mid November and dump on us this year in December with some really cold outbreaks . Snowfall should be average to just above average from the LV to the NW 

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10 hours ago, Albedoman said:

by the way, the air is so soupy this morning. Its been awhile for these ripe conditions to form but I really think some good boomers will be popping with some squall lines late this afternoon and into the evening. Its been a long time ( since June?)  The drought was killed off this weekend and especially after tonight. Too late for the crops though.  Really think an east based La Nina will form in  mid November and dump on us this year in December with some really cold outbreaks . Snowfall should be average to just above average from the LV to the NW 

And this evening, currently at 74F/DP 72F /9pm.

Past couple frames on radar, decent echoes starting to form W---E.

 

74.jpg

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There was some light rain last night enough to tip the bucket for 0.01" but the bulk of overnight rain came between 1 - 3 am giving me an additional 0.82". That has now brought my September total (usually one of our drier months absent any tropical cyclones/remnants) to 5.55" IMBY.

Currently an overcast and misty 71 with dp 71.

 

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Many sections of Chester County PA are now well above normal regarding both monthly and YTD rainfall. With the passage of the cold front last night we are beginning a stretch of almost perfect late summer weather. Wall to wall sunshine every day with temperatures averaging near to a little below normal over the next 5 days before temps rise to a bit above normal by Sunday. Many of the lower spots in the county may actually see their 1st reading in the 40's by Friday morning!
Our record high for today is 96 degrees set in 1952. The record low is 37 degrees set in 1953. The daily rainfall record is 2.33" set back in 1930.
image.png.665021dc41537a8dab9277f79ec6ec2a.png
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6 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Only 11 days out :weenie:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_45.png

This potential (Hurricane Fiona) potential   should be taken real seriously. This first look at this storm is almost at the same pressure as Floyd (1999) in almost the same location under similar drier than normal conditions for our area in 1999.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

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Today we may struggle to get out of the upper 60's across some of the higher terrain in Chester County. Lows tonight could see the 40's especially in the lower spots and valleys. This would be the first reading in the 40's since our low of 49.5 on June 20th.
Our record high for today is 93 degrees from 1927. The record low is 35 degrees from 1895. The daily rainfall mark is the 1.85" that fell back in 1904.

image.png.ed134a5bdddb344148a2e33c5903dcd2.png

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Tropical threat making it's way north next week looks dead. Also looks like huge Canadian high pressure and coc weather for days after mid week. Weather World five week outlook is dry and mild.

Research shows very unactive tropical seasons are followed by mild winters..

 

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Tropical threat making it's way north next week looks dead. Also looks like huge Canadian high pressure and coc weather for days after mid week. Weather World five week outlook is dry and mild.

Research shows very unactive tropical seasons are followed by mild winters..

 

good, I hope it stays dead.  La Nina patterns are not necessarily mild but they are sure the hell less snowy for our area. The Central US (Missouri, Illinois and northern Kentucky) with the Great Lakes  area will get pounded (Indiana, Ohio, NW PA and NY)  with heavy snow in this pattern.  

Usually only one or two good snows(8+ in) are typical in our area and they have to be thread the needle type storms Miller B's or over producing Alberta clippers). Snow may start right after Thanksgiving this year but they will 2-4 inch type snows throughout December.  Snow cover may be the real issue(long duration) and a prolong cold outbreak for our area maybe the real issue for us.  I see no biggies Nor'easters in our future this year as the GOM is shutoff from LP production in this LA Nina crappy pattern for big snowstorms. If the GOM opens up  during the winter, we get one but I am not holding my breath..

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This morning's low of 48.6 was our coldest reading since the 47.8 back on May 11th. A near normal day today across the County before a warming trend kicks in starting over the weekend and lasting through most of next week. We should see temps rise to well above normal with highs in the low to mid 80's for most of next week. That is a good 8 to 10 degrees above normal. There is a slight chance of showers on Monday but otherwise dry through the period.
The record high for today is 91 degrees set in 1991. Our record low is 36 degrees in 1913. The record rain was the 7.85" at Coatesville from 1999. That rain was the result of Hurricane Floyd and is the greatest 1 day rain total since "official" record keeping began back in 1888 for Chester County PA. I was actually in Thorndale PA for that storm and we received 8.38" of rain.
image.png.e19c98a02eb2e4b7998190dcda942f6f.png

 

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Our warming trend gets well under way today as we rise to the above normal upper 70's to near 80 across much of the County. Above normal temps should continue through Thursday before much cooler air again arrives on Friday with highs on Friday again failing to escape the 60's in many locations.
Our record high today is 93 degrees set back in 1915. The record low is 36 degrees set back in 1959. The daily rainfall record is the 3.01" that fell in 1995.

image.png.3386fa4586b349360ecb44a98ba92bd4.png

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I agree.  That huge low in Alaska is going to bring down some good ole cold fronts in the next few weeks with lows dropping into the 30's. The La Nina pattern is also going to help steer the hurricanes away from our area. The growing season will end early this year.  This stubborn pattern creates long duration small accumulations of snow on the ground but constant clippers will keep the snow pack refreshed and cold . I expect the parade to start around Thanksgiving going into December.  

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The next few days will continue to average above average temperature wise before a sharp cold front and switch to autumnal chilly weather arrives by Thursday. We should see high temps remaining in the low to mid-60's by Friday. Those kind of temperatures are typical for mid-October than late September.
The record Chester County high for today is 93 degrees set way back in 1898. Our record low reading was the 35 degrees set in 1990. The daily rainfall record is 3.90" from 1945.
image.png.fb447a7e88f0f6cd0a4a1ddac2272cd7.png
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