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June 2022 General Discussion


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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The answer is yes.  100 at Cairo.  And don't give me the bs about 37.7C being 99.9F

KCIR 132055Z AUTO 26009G15KT 10SM CLR 38/22 A2987 RMK AO2 T03770219

I'm not even sure Cairo is considered East of the MS River.Part of the MS River is East of Cairo and part of it is West.

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15 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I'm not even sure Cairo is considered East of the MS River.Part of the MS River is East of Cairo and part of it is West.

Yeah the geography there is a little funky.  Since a portion of the river lies to the west of Cairo, this is good enough in my book.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

100 is looking in question now for this area.  Euro knocked a few degrees off of both tomorrow and Wed.  Today's temps underachieved a bit as well, so this little heat wave may end up being kinda meh for here.  100 or bust.

Was probably never realistically going to hit 100 out there anyway.

The Euro was off it's rocker with the more widespread 100's, with unreasonable mixing.

STL was the 100 or bust location, and they did manage to hit it today...With two more shots to go, to better that number.

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ORD got some decent rain today, but MDW did not (only 0.04" there).

This brings me to tomorrow and my thoughts on hitting 100F in Chicago.  ORD is the official observation site of course, but we pay attention to MDW too.  

850 mb temps in the mid 20s C and mixing to that level would support 100F temps, but the issue is that progged mixing heights look to be a bit below that level.  Based on this being such a marginal setup to begin with, today's rains, and temperature performance at ORD so far this warm season, I do not believe that ORD has a meaningful chance to hit the century mark tomorrow.  

MDW is a more interesting one.  Given the lack of recent rain and it tending to run warmer than ORD, I believe there's a shot of touching 100 there... I'd give it maybe about a 40% chance at this point.  Here's some "benchmark" temps that I'd want to see if MDW is to have a good chance of triple digits:

10 am:  89

Noon:  95

2 pm:  98

These are not hard rules, and failure to meet those marks wouldn't necessarily preclude a high of 100, but I think it's a pretty good guideline of target numbers to try to reach.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

ORD got some decent rain today, but MDW did not (only 0.04" there).

This brings me to tomorrow and my thoughts on hitting 100F in Chicago.  ORD is the official observation site of course, but we pay attention to MDW too.  

850 mb temps in the mid 20s C and mixing to that level would support 100F temps, but the issue is that progged mixing heights look to be a bit below that level.  Based on this being such a marginal setup to begin with, today's rains, and temperature performance at ORD so far this warm season, I do not believe that ORD has a meaningful chance to hit the century mark tomorrow.  

MDW is a more interesting one.  Given the lack of recent rain and it tending to run warmer than ORD, I believe there's a shot of touching 100 there... I'd give it maybe about a 40% chance at this point.  Here's some "benchmark" temps that I'd want to see if MDW is to have a good chance of triple digits:

10 am:  89

Noon:  95

2 pm:  98

These are not hard rules, and failure to meet those marks wouldn't necessarily preclude a high of 100, but I think it's a pretty good guideline of target numbers to try to reach.

I'll go 95 ORD and 98 MDW for tomorrow.

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Was probably never realistically going to hit 100 out there anyway.

The Euro was off it's rocker with the more widespread 100's, with unreasonable mixing.

STL was the 100 or bust location, and they did manage to hit it today...With two more shots to go, to better that number.

Still think there's a slight chance, but not as enthused about it as yesterday.  What I meant by bust was if it doesn't hit 100 it's just kind of eh.  We've already hit 96-97, so 98-99 doesn't really do much for me lol.  Still impressive/significant, but gotta get those triples to excite me at this point.

MLI has a heat index of 92 at midnight.  Don't know how peeps survived this before AC.  

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We'll see, but I wonder if early next week starts to bump hotter than it currently appears.  It has more of a westerly component in the low level flow than what we are seeing now and in the short term, and in general and without regard to any localized influences, those days with more of a westerly aspect have tended to perform well wrt big heat in previous years.

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Still think there's a slight chance, but not as enthused about it as yesterday.  What I meant by bust was if it doesn't hit 100 it's just kind of eh.  We've already hit 96-97, so 98-99 doesn't really do much for me lol.  Still impressive/significant, but gotta get those triples to excite me at this point.
MLI has a heat index of 92 at midnight.  Don't know how peeps survived this before AC.  

I keep forgetting a bit that there was that mid-May heat wave, as I wasn’t around for it.

I’d obviously take any heat, but I do get your point. Just don’t get 99’d.
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ORD bottomed out at 65° last night/this morning, and is ‘only’ up to 69° as of 6AM. Looks like the warm front was kicked back south a bit across N IL overnight.

Will be interesting to see how hot it gets and how accurate the HRRR is with a 98/99° high temp there for today. Can’t imagine there are many days around here that have started in the mid-upper 60’s, and finished near 100°.

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21 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

This airmass is crazy for the heart of summer, but especially mid-June.

Low this morning of 81 in Paducah KY, which ties the all-time June record warm min (81 on 6/23/2016).

Low this morning of 83 in St. Louis MO, which is an all-time Jume record warm min (82 on 6/25/1988).  And, it's already 86/78/98 at 8 AM.

I'm assuming these mins will hold through midnight...which should be no problem given the capping there.

Jume is my new fav month. I like the sound of that.

After the clouds rolled back in mid-afternoon yesterday like they seem to around here, its nice to see my forecast bust hard for this morning. Blue skies instead of light rain and more of the grey effluence. I thought this was possible due to the encouraging trends on radar late last night. May that bump my highs up, I'm sick of feeling cold in Jume.

  • Haha 1
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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

got a beach party this afternoon for the last day of school at cps, conditions look ideal for being in the water

Still in school? My kids were out May 20th

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