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June 2022


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Temperatures rose into the middle 80s today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with widespread upper 80s and some lower 90s. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from tomorrow through Saturday.

In the South, Galveston is now virtually certain to record its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was June-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +26.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.317 today.

On June 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.923 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.955 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).

 

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Does appear the long term discussion was updated later on. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --

Friday should be the warmest of the days in the forecast period as the area sits underneath a passing upper level ridge, with H8 temps approaching 19C. This should support high temps reaching at least the lower and mid 90s from NYC north/west and across the interior CT river valley, with 80s elsewhere. Dewpoints will be high enough to take the max heat index into the mid 90s across much of the NYC metro area and especially NE NJ for just one day. With the ridge moving east and presence of a weak lee trough to the west, expect sct showers/tstms to develop over ern PA and move E toward western portions of the area during the late afternoon and early evening, then become more widespread late Fri night into Sat morning with the approach of a cold front, and as heights aloft fall E of the departing ridge and on the S periphery of a deep closed low Ontario and Quebec and centered near James Bay. Sat has some potential for tstms with severe wx and localized flooding given a potentially unstable air mass with steep low level lapse rates ahead of an approaching cold front, bulk 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kt, and PW increasing to near 2 inches. Deep moisture may be pulling out to the S in the afternoon as instability maximizes, which may favor severe wx over flooding or take the main threat just south of the area, but it still too early to know for certain. The front should sink to the south Sat night into Sunday morning, with mainly dry wx returning by Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday (Independence Day). The front will remain not too far off to the south, with precip chances returning from Mon night into the mid week period as weak disturbances move along it.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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Below to near average June temperatures away from the urban corridor in NE NJ. Some of the strongest blocking of the year waiting until June. So the strongest heat remained to our west. 

84E2067E-C9E9-4E6A-97C4-F6EA7ACE9D04.gif.ad9faaa5d25284cdbd1366be198c23e9.gif
EWR…+1.6

NYC….-0.7

LGA…..-1.3

HPN…..-0.1

JFK…….0.0

ISP…….-0.1

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will mostly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 92°

Tomorrow will be fair and hot.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.6°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.4°

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The last day of June is averaging  80degs.(70/90) or +4.

Month to date is  71.2[-0.7].       June should end at  71.5[-0.5].

The first 10 days of July are averaging  82degs.(72/92) or +6.***

***For Entertainment Purposes Only!

Reached 80 here yesterday.

Today: 83-88, wind w. to s. back to w., m. sunny, some clouds late, 71 tomorrow AM.

71*(75%RH) here at 7am.      75* at 9am.        Spent most of PM at 77-78 with that sea breeze and some cumulus around to block sun.       Reached 82* near 7pm as usual when sea breeze quits and heat from elsewhere filters in.

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The North Shore was the big rainfall jackpot winner this month with the 2nd wettest June since records began at Mount Sinai in 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for MOUNT SINAI, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2013 9.57 0
2 2022 6.73 1
3 2012 6.65 0
4 2011 5.10 0
5 2015 4.86 0
6 2019 4.61 0
7 2017 3.78 0
8 2018 2.92 0
9 2014 2.91 0
10 2021 2.02 0
11 2010 2.01 1
12 2016 1.60 0
13 2020 1.15 0
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The heat is on for the next 48 - 52 hours or so.  EWR and some spots in NE-NJ/CNJ started the seasons first heatwave Wed.  Today upper 80s / low 90s, even the park could break 90 today.  Friday peak heat low/mid 90s with some hot spots perhaps touching 97/98.   Timing of the front has moved up on most guidance (00z/06z GFS, OOZ Canadian, NAM) arriving early Sat and through the day, setting up for a nice/warm Sunday, while the Euro (00z/06z) are slower with front and subsequent storms Sat PM into Sunday morning.    Id go with the quicker solution - saturday mostly cloudy and storms (potential heavy) and mch improved Sunday and a very warm and dry Fourth of July.

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14 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

610temp.new.gif

 

The big quesstion now has to be will the dome of heat which has dominated the center of the CONUS stay there most of the remainder of the summer or will it finally shift to cover the northeastern states including NYC during the second half of July and August? It has remained nearly frozen in the same place for the better part of the last 6 weeks with a little piece of it breaking off into our region for a day or two every ten or so days. If it is to shift to cover the northeast states later in the summer exactly what will be the mechanism to cause that shift and how will it occur? Will the ridge retrograde further and further allowing WAR to work its way in from the south and east or will blocking over the North Atlantic subside allowing the ridge to expand and build in from the west? Or will we remain in this relatively average temperature pattern (below average over parts of New England) with heat every ten days or so throughout summer? 

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The big quesstion now has to be will the dome of heat which has dominated the center of the CONUS stay there most of the remainder of the summer or will it finally shift to cover the northeastern states including NYC during the second half of July and August? It has remained nearly frozen in the same place for the better part of the last 6 weeks with a little piece of it breaking off into our region for a day or two every ten or so days. If it is to shift to cover the northeast states later in the summer exactly what will be the mechanism to cause that shift and how will it occur? Will the ridge retrograde further and further allowing WAR to work its way in from the south and east or will blocking over the North Atlantic subside allowing the ridge to expand and build in from the west? Or will we remain in this relatively average temperature pattern (below average over parts of New England) with heat every ten days or so throughout summer? 

WX/PT

If I'm not mistaken some models showed a few heat events long term well or so ago then they basically all vanished again.. temperatures are normal to just above normal it seems long term wise. 

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22 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The heat dome will finally move into the northeast for October-December

 

It probably is not a question of "if" but a question of "when". Now the cracked up GFS which at this point has ZERO support (someday it will be right, maybe) is saying goodbye to the blocking around July 10th as it builds the ridge out west eastward over and around what was originally a cool Canadian HP on July 8th. If you cancel the blocking this is actually a logical outcome and transition. The question being is it real? The answer at this point in time is "probably not". We'll keep an eye on the ensembles for any developing support of this idea but frankly I doubt we'll see it this early. Later on? There's a better chance IMO.

WX/PT

gfs_z500_mslp_us_52.png

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3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

So how well does the nam do in terms of timing say fronts during the summer months?  

Almost all of the models are timing the front for Saturday mid-day. Tomorrow night kind of a pre-frontal trough will most likely ignite storms. The question being will there be enough sun to lift the temperatures to hot levels Saturday before the storms pop back up along the front as it passes to our south.

WX/PT

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Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Almost all of the models are timing the front for Saturday mid-day. Tomorrow night kind of a pre-frontal trough will most likely ignite storms. The question being will there be enough sun to lift the temperatures to hot levels Saturday before the storms pop back up along the front as it passes to our south.

WX/PT

Nam slowed down a bit. Nws pointed that out. But it doesn't have any support at this point. 

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The rate of June warming in our area has been slower than December. The strongest heat in the Plains this month matches  the trend. We can also see less cooling in the Northeast and Northwest. But last June was a big outlier.
 

D5B3CFC4-67B5-4B5F-BEF9-885F83849412.thumb.png.0dd6c43100843615683d4ef3bb7e1ce8.png

2483C7C1-7983-4A86-8EF1-D50F12F6F68E.png.976e941d8a058dfdbcac5c612d880d11.png

A85C6A05-AEC1-4831-B45F-E06BFFBACDC6.png.4b64c9a3d00c193a265d8ae711f2a656.png

 

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New York City is concluding a somewhat cooler than normal June, though much of the region saw near or somewhat above normal temperatures. In Central Park, the mean temperature was 71.4°, which was 0.6° below normal.

Tomorrow will likely be the hottest day of the week. Many locations will see temperatures top out in the lower and perhaps middle 90s. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from tomorrow through Saturday.

Afterward, it will be somewhat cooler. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

Galveston is now wrapping up its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was July-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. Anchorage is also concluding its first June on record where the high temperature reached or exceeded 60° on all 30 days.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +24.39 today. The old daily record was +21.58 in 2009)

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.487 today.

On June 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.556 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.921 (RMM).

 

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