12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010

[jlewis1111]

nam spits out ok amounts in va nc however last storm had good amounts also and didnt get anywhere near what the nam projected. Just a thought

[retusnmete8]

as close as we all said it was, the end result for this run of the NAM does not seem to be too different except for some overrunning snows in the Southern MA on Christmas

It is a much deeper solution than just 12 hours ago. Think Mid/Atl and NE will benefit most from result.

Waiting to see what this does to coastal MA as it could hook closer and be much deeper.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The 3-hr precip maps come out faster

http://www.nco.ncep..../12/p03_m.shtml

Still a miss, but this is as big of a shift your going to see with a model in such a short range

[mitchnick]

the trough remains too broad early on and positively tilted

by the time it turns neutral and sharpens, its too far east

this has been shown on every model and its hard to believe it will suddenly change w/o a 1/25/00 turn of events

[mitchnick]

I guess you could say we're experiencing a typical NINA so far this early winter

[mitchnick]

700mb RH has the classic signature of a miss and what could have been

[Siesta Key]

Shall we cling to CRAS? Showed a nice nice last night ;P

[retusnmete8]

Not sure I am buying into 60hr posit based on earlier trend in this run of amped up S/W. I would not rule out MA with this run as yet esp ern MA/Cape..See what happens with GFS as NAM coming closer to GFS.

[mitchnick]

Shall we cling to CRAS? Showed a nice nice lats night ;P

I lost my link to that

do you have it?

thanks

[Dalfy]

I lost my link to that

do you have it?

thanks

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/

[SP]

Monmouth County NJ Snow Magnets fully engaged!

NAM trying to bring us 3-6

Just a bit further west might put a big smile on few faces

[gkrangers]

Monmouth County NJ Snow Magnets fully engaged!

NAM trying to bring us 3-6

Just a bit further west might put a big smile on few faces

I think 2-3" would be more reasonable, but would gladly take it..

[retusnmete8]

If GFS keys on deeper S/w then your totals will come up on 12z GFS as west of track QPF always high on GFS.

[Siesta Key]

Crass from 0Z shows us some love. Best weenie image I could find.

http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_p48_084l.gif

[Midlo Snow Maker]

[mitchnick]

we need a warm up and a re-shuffling of the deck to get out of this "swing and a miss" pattern

[Ji]

the 12z crap is unbelievable. It would show what would happen if there was an early phase

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_comp_s_loop.html

[SBUWX23]

the 12z crap is unbelievable. It would show what would happen if there was an early phase

http://cimss.ssec.wi...omp_s_loop.html

yesterdays run

[Clinch Leatherwood]

700mb RH has the classic signature of a miss and what could have been

The undeniable trend over the last 3 days has been for the threat to shift further north and east gradually over time. Is that where we are heading, with a hit up into NS and E ME? Who knows. We can explain away why it should be further west, but let's see what the consensus is after this run which IMO is about all that will matter.

[eurojosh]

Wow, nice white Christmas in central and southern va. I'll take the consolation prize.

Funny how we're ending up with the solution - at least in the MA - that the models first had about ten days ago before all this craziness. Overrunning snows cut just south of DC.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

as most mets have already said, its coming down to the timing and strength of the phase which I THINK isnt a perfect science regards to it being modeled correctly. a slightly quicker phase and stronger will get it to close off quicker and that COULD have some coastal folks in the game. the fact that there are signs for a more westward trend after yesterdays disasterous runs, seems like the models are re-adjusting itself. its Friday 12z. we need good trending runs with the GFS and EC RIGHT NOW. slow down the s/w out in the SW just a bit and let the energy diving from the upper midwest to dig deeper than forecasted, theres some hope. im more concerned with the first 40hr looks on GFS.

[SnowGoose69]

The relatively strong upper low behind this storm I believe will likely surprise someone with a few inches of snow but its tough to pinpoint where right now...I made a post in the NYC thread showing radar images courtesy of Ray's archive page showing 2 events that hit the NYC metro courtesy of a deep upper low well behind the main coastal low....the area that would seem to be the greatest threat to be hit right now is SE VA/the Delmarva and maybe NE NC at the base of the upper low as it swings through but its hard to say at this range..

[twodogs]

GFS INT closed 500 west tx pan

[PhineasC]

Eh, despite the upper levels looking better and better the surface depiction is barely changing. That tells me the overall setup just isn't any good at this point and all we are doing is buying a few miles left or right downstream.

[Caveman]

As I have followed this present winter storm threat and last week's as well, one of the most basic premises of weather forecasting I learned at PSU before modeling was worshipped was persistence. This December has been persistently cold with a strong NW flow at all levels unless interrupted by a classic cyclone. In Harrisburg, we are 5F below normal for the month; quite impressive without any snow cover and a very warm day on December 1! The first clipper that strengthened and moved over the western Lakes simply reinforced the persistent cold NW flow. For us who live SE of the mountains, the downsloping obviously inhibits precip and the stratocu that we get from the mtns with a few flurries from time to time is all we can muster in this type of pattern. Climo suggests that clippers just aren't the big storm producers here in the eastern MA. The split flow out west was promising, but the persistent NW flow has won out again. It seems to me that the more forecasters rely of the modeling and the exact solutions of each run, that the true art of forecasting is being lost. In my opinion, persistence is a very reliable tool in weather forecasting as patterns do often dictate the exact sensible weather one realizes in his immediate area.

[twodogs]

open at 6 closed back at 9 looking stronger to me

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

at 24hr trough looks more neutral than previous runs. however, i think the phasing isnt there. streams look separated and not in sync around the TENN valley.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

big north west shift on precip

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

woah. hr 30 looks like piece of northern stream begins to dive into the backside of the low in southern stream....improved from 0z and 6z I THINK.

[Dalfy]

check out 36, its digging more compared to 6z..