Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Where did we land on the impact of warm SSTs up here for impact on snowfall for coastals? Factor? Non factor? Unknown?  This condition stands out this year big time.

 

Usually its not a big deal because SSTs are very malleable, but maybe early in the season the coast has a bit more trouble than usual...it should also aid baroclinicity.

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Usually its not a big deal because SSTs are very malleable, but maybe early in the season the coast has a bit more trouble than usual...it should also aid baroclinicity.

Yeah first 6-8 weeks of winter can be “helped” out by the warm SSTs since you will have cold shots over the land but the contrast to the warm SSTs will be greater than normal. It makes rapidly bombing storms a bit more likely…you still obviously need the synoptic setup first. 

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Where did we land on the impact of warm SSTs up here for impact on snowfall for coastals? Factor? Non factor? Unknown?  This condition stands out this year big time.

 

I saw a study that warmed SST temps by 1-2C. It didn't change the snowfall too much...but sharpened up things like coastal fronts.

[ORH_wxman]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the whole "fear regression" argument is done on a regional level...a few narrow swaths have avoided it, but not the majority of us.

Yeah a few pockets have avoided regression but I’d say a majority of SNE has regressed a decent amount in the past 4-5 seasons or so. Some select areas you could maybe argue started regressing a bit before that…like after 2010-2011. 
 

Peeps in western zones haven’t had a lot of luck since then after getting smoked over and over again for basically a decade between ‘00-01 and ‘10-11. They were mostly too far west for the real big dogs (like Feb ‘13, Jan ‘15, Feb ‘15, Jan ‘18, 2nd Mar ‘18 storm, Jan ‘22) and didn’t really make up for it with enough other conventional warning events. Throw in what might have been an all time epic ratter in the Berkshires and S VT in 2015-16 and you have a solid case that they are ready to flip the script a bit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/24/2022 at 10:52 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't think December 2021 was that far off from being really good. The 2nd half of the month actually had a pattern similar to Dec 1970....but just a shade more -PNA and confluence up by us which ended up being all the difference.

You could see how this pattern would be good though. You have a SE ridge but also -NAO And 50/50 low for confluence to hold in the highs near CAR on SWFE.....in our case though, we just couldn't get any of those disturbances to maintain their integrity in the flow.

 

 

That's been a leitmotif with increasing prevalence over recent decade(s).  There are exception periods, or specific events, of course. But in general.

Shearing systems due to velocity saturation from too much gradient in the means between the 35th and 60th latitudes. Sometimes as many as 15 isohypses is the base-line state, and that's outside of actual S/W wind maxes.  That will impose an attenuation.

It shrinks the d(v)'s ...or tends to, and the S/W don't have mechanics to do as much, because they are not differentiating the flow enough to impose Norwegian model jet structural responses.  The ones that overcome and develop better total cyclone space within that flow and the storm moves along at ludicrous speeds. 

It's weird though because this hurried maelstrom thing is happening with elevating pwat, which seems to be offsetting the total mitigation - it seems to more effect storm structure and placement.

I mean all this from orbit. There's exceptions and goes back and forth with more and less coherency.    

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's been a leitmotif with increasing prevalence over recent decade(s).  There are exception periods, or specific events, of course. But in general.

Shearing systems due to velocity saturation from too much gradient in the means between the 35th and 60th latitudes. Sometimes as many as 15 isohypses is the base-line state, and that's outside of actual S/W wind maxes.  That will impose an attenuation.

It shrinks the d(v)'s ...or tends to, and the S/W don't have mechanics to do as much, because they are not differentiating the flow enough to impose Norwegian model jet structural responses.  The ones that overcome and develop better total cyclone space within that flow and the storm moves along at ludicrous speeds. 

It's weird though because this hurried maelstrom thing is happening with elevating pwat, which seems to be offsetting the total mitigation - it seems to more effect storm structure and placement.

I mean all this from orbit. There's exceptions and goes back and forth with more and less coherency.    

 

I don't argue your point, but the shearing last December was the result of a record RNA abutting a solid NAO block. That would have sheared on Ginxy's great, great, great, great, great grand dogs back in 1633.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a few pockets have avoided regression but I’d say a majority of SNE has regressed a decent amount in the past 4-5 seasons or so. Some select areas you could maybe argue started regressing a bit before that…like after 2010-2011. 
 

Peeps in western zones haven’t had a lot of luck since then after getting smoked over and over again for basically a decade between ‘00-01 and ‘10-11. They were mostly too far west for the real big dogs (like Feb ‘13, Jan ‘15, Feb ‘15, Jan ‘18, 2nd Mar ‘18 storm, Jan ‘22) and didn’t really make up for it with enough other conventional warning events. Throw in what might have been an all time epic ratter in the Berkshires and S VT in 2015-16 and you have a solid case that they are ready to flip the script a bit. 

You wanna see me really blow a gasket, watch me get rained on with a slew of tracks near 495 over the course of the next several years.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't argue your point, but the shearing last December was the result of a record RNA abutting a solid NAO block. That would have sheared on Ginxy's great, great, great, great, great grand dogs back in 1633.

Yeah ...I dunno. It would be difficult to parse out how much of either, that RNA/-PNAP stuff, vs just a compressed hemisphere in any attribution sense of it.   I don't believe multi-season/perennial persistence for compression was not part of that, however. While at the same time, the -PNAP was raging.

I.e., some of both.   I can tell you this much, ...either alone might cause a destructive interference pattern.   Together?

 

                                                    f   ed

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

On 8/26/2022 at 2:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a few pockets have avoided regression but I’d say a majority of SNE has regressed a decent amount in the past 4-5 seasons or so. Some select areas you could maybe argue started regressing a bit before that…like after 2010-2011. 
 

Peeps in western zones haven’t had a lot of luck since then after getting smoked over and over again for basically a decade between ‘00-01 and ‘10-11. They were mostly too far west for the real big dogs (like Feb ‘13, Jan ‘15, Feb ‘15, Jan ‘18, 2nd Mar ‘18 storm, Jan ‘22) and didn’t really make up for it with enough other conventional warning events. Throw in what might have been an all time epic ratter in the Berkshires and S VT in 2015-16 and you have a solid case that they are ready to flip the script a bit. 

We over regressed, time to get back to the regression line. 84 inches this winter here. First Last

[It's Always Sunny]

On 8/22/2022 at 9:30 PM, It's Always Sunny said:

500 gph anomaly composites are up but they are out of order on mobile devices I recommend using desktop for time being until I fix it. Next composites I plan to add are temp/precip departures.

Temp & precip composites are added via NOAA/NCEI webpage. Rearranged the layout/format once again for easier readability. Best when viewed on desktop but mobile works as well just requires more scrolling. To view the galleries you need to click the image then you can pan left/right to toggle through the images. If you have a question as to why I categorized a certain year where I did, let me know. 

[sebastiaan1973]

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions (springer.com)

Combined Impacts of PDO and Two Types of La Niña on Climate Anomalies in Europe in: Journal of Climate Volume 30 Issue 9 (2017) (ametsoc.org)

These studies might by of interested for coming winter.

[Snowcrazed71]

I found this to be extremely interesting and how it is already affecting the south pole and how it can also make a big impact on the north pole fur this upcoming Winter. We shall see....

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions (springer.com)

Combined Impacts of PDO and Two Types of La Niña on Climate Anomalies in Europe in: Journal of Climate Volume 30 Issue 9 (2017) (ametsoc.org)

These studies might by of interested for coming winter.

Yea, I used a Springer piece to in my research for last year's outlook. He has some good stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I found this to be extremely interesting and how it is already affecting the south pole and how it can also make a big impact on the north pole fur this upcoming Winter. We shall see....

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

That was posted in the mid atl forum....not sure how a cold N HEM strat correlates to a warm N HEM strat....I'd take that one with a grain of salt, as it doesn't seem to be peer reviewed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I note that all ENSO zones are up fairly appreciably this week......maybe a respite from the usual cavalry of pro ENSO Eric Webb/Ben Knoll tweets?

17AUG2022     20.1-0.8     24.3-0.8     25.7-1.2     27.7-1.0
 24AUG2022     20.3-0.5     24.5-0.4     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.8

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I note that all ENSO zones are up fairly appreciably this week......maybe a respite from the usual cavalry of pro ENSO Eric Webb/Ben Knoll tweets?

17AUG2022     20.1-0.8     24.3-0.8     25.7-1.2     27.7-1.0
 24AUG2022     20.3-0.5     24.5-0.4     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.8

What are they saying? Webb still think he knows it all?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What are they saying? Webb still think he knows it all?

Yea....just causing a stir amongst the weenies getting carried away with ENSO....the usual shit. We go through this phase every year....the point of the fall where some master of the universe on twitter posts some esoteric chart with wind anomalies, and has everyone expecting the strongest la nina/el nino on record.

[It's Always Sunny]

I swear Twitter is a forum to formulate a cult led by a handful of know it alls and a bunch of brainwashed weather enthusiasts

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I swear Twitter is a forum to formulate a cult led by a handful of know it alls and a bunch of brainwashed weather enthusiasts

It is. It's amazing how many people get off to that. Here's the safe zone George. Sometimes lol.

[It's Always Sunny]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. It's amazing how many people get off to that. Here's the safe zone George. Sometimes lol.

I’ve only been active on Twitter for a couple of years but it didn’t take me long to realize that unfortunately for some people on there that is their sole identity. 
 

Yes this is a safe zone, sometimes lol. Maybe I can become a cult leader on here if I forecast an active winter 

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I’ve only been active on Twitter for a couple of years but it didn’t take me long to realize that unfortunately for some people on there that is their sole identity. 
 

Yes this is a safe zone, sometimes lol. Maybe I can become a cult leader on here if I forecast an active winter 

  That will happen!

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I swear Twitter is a forum to formulate a cult led by a handful of know it alls and a bunch of brainwashed weather enthusiasts

I think the same can be said about any subject, not just weather

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I’ve only been active on Twitter for a couple of years but it didn’t take me long to realize that unfortunately for some people on there that is their sole identity. 
 

Yes this is a safe zone, sometimes lol. Maybe I can become a cult leader on here if I forecast an active winter 

I use Twitter for two things:

1) Later in fall season I do pull a lot of useful info to use in the winter outlook.

2) Reports to Box, usually during winter.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I swear Twitter is a forum to formulate a cult led by a handful of know it alls and a bunch of brainwashed weather enthusiasts

One of the main reasons I’ve never really imbibed in wx Twitter…

[forkyfork]

you're all following the wrong people

[forkyfork]

normie idiot asks you a stupid question? blocked. gone from your life forever <3

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, It&#x27;s Always Sunny said:

I’ve only been active on Twitter for a couple of years but it didn’t take me long to realize that unfortunately for some people on there that is their sole identity. 
 

Yes this is a safe zone, sometimes lol. Maybe I can become a cult leader on here if I forecast an active winter 

You're a fan of mine if you can get me a winter entirely above 0F and BN snowfall.

[Snowcrazed71]

So.. Farmers Alamanac Vs. Old Farmer Alamanac? Both garbage, or does the Old Farmers Almanac have a little more scientific backing to it? 

 

https://dailyvoice.com/new-york/whiteplains/weather/old-farmers-almanac-releases-outlook-for-winter-in-northeast/840209/

[512high]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I use Twitter for two things:

1) Later in fall season I do pull a lot of useful info to use in the winter outlook.

2) Reports to Box, usually during winter.

And you sometimes challenge or correct "Judah" at times, Its great to see this thread have some action and thoughts about the upcoming season, after working outside in this crap, especially today, good thread to cool off in !

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, 512high said:

And you sometimes challenge or correct "Judah" at times, Its great to see this thread have some action and thoughts about the upcoming season, after working outside in this crap, especially today, good thread to cool off in !

He was measuring snow on a roof drifted patio table.