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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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2 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Hey guys! Won't be long before I return to Oswego. I've spent the summer months in TN and it's been hot as you can imagine. How's the summer treating you guys?

A lot of 80+ degree day's and a little rain here and there around the Oswego area. I live 10 minutes south of Oswego. Gonna be close to 90 Wednesday and possible 95 Thursday around the area. 

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14 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Hey guys! Won't be long before I return to Oswego. I've spent the summer months in TN and it's been hot as you can imagine. How's the summer treating you guys?

IMO, it's been the best Spring/Summer we've had in a long time. 

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Hoping to see some nighttime elevated convection with the passage of the warm front. KBUF doesn't seem too impressed.

It will be very muggy tonight as a well established southerly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front advects in lower 70s dewpoints
across our region. Temps will remain very warm with lows in the low
to mid 70s, warmest Niagara Frontier to St. Lawrence River valley.
Convection chances tonight are dependent on upstream trends.
Not very confident in any one solution based on how models have
performed since last night. In general the models were too far
north and west with convection last night and are similar today.
With that in mind and since warm front will be north of here
allowing for ample elevated instability to settle across along
with a low-level jet in place, made sure to have at least chance
pops this evening over western NY and northern North Country,
then blended this with going forecast chancy pops over from
western NY to North Country later tonight. Better chances for
storms tonight *likely* will remain just north of our area
across southern Ontario and southern Quebec along advancing warm
front and where stronger temp/moisture advection are present.
It will be a nowcasting type of scenario though.
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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

All the long range models show December as the below average month. 

Well if there is any month to be below average I hope it's December lol Tired of these slow start winters..Hard to catch up with minimal snow through December...

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well if there is any month to be below average I hope it's December lol Tired of these slow start winters..Hard to catch up with minimal snow through December...

10000% December is by far my favorite winter month. If I could lock in 4 weeks of below normal temps in December with warm lakes it would basically guarantee us a decent winter. 

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well if there is any month to be below average I hope it's December lol Tired of these slow start winters..Hard to catch up with minimal snow through December...

Average highs in December are also still mild enough that "above average temps" more commonly can lead to rain... Whereas "above average" in January can still bring good chances of snow. Though, the above average Januarys of late haven't done so well in leading to snowy conditions. Below average temps in December can really work with those warmer lake temps to produce the good snows too. 

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Average highs in December are also still mild enough that "above average temps" more commonly can lead to rain... Whereas "above average" in January can still bring good chances of snow. Though, the above average Januarys of late haven't done so well in leading to snowy conditions. Below average temps in December can really work with those warmer lake temps to produce the good snows too. 

I'd say the majority of our largest LES events occur in December. Just need another one of these for @TugHillMatt

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

Lake Effect Summary - Dec 05 2010 to Dec 09 2010 - Storm Total Snow Map

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'd say the majority of our largest LES events occur in December. Just need another one of these for @TugHillMatt

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

Lake Effect Summary - Dec 05 2010 to Dec 09 2010 - Storm Total Snow Map

Yep, I have been reading up on that one during these dog days of summer! It's been a while, but apparently Syracuse CAN get some good 3 to 5 foot lake events!

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yep, I have been reading up on that one during these dog days of summer! It's been a while, but apparently Syracuse CAN get some good 3 to 5 foot lake events!

There are quite a few good ones. December is usually WNY best month for lake effect as usually lake erie starts freezing the 2nd half of January in a "normal" winter. We live in a new normal where the lake doesn't really freeze anymore though. Obviously Ontario is good all winter. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There are quite a few good ones. December is usually WNY best month for lake effect as usually lake erie starts freezing the 2nd half of January in a "normal" winter. We live in a new normal where the lake doesn't really freeze anymore though. Obviously Ontario is good all winter. 

If it continues, Buffalo averages will certainly surpass Syracuse. For Syracuse to get those greater amounts, it seems we need the low pressures off the East Coast to sweep moist, cold air over the lake. Those lows and the cold have been lacking. With going into a more neutral winter, it will be interesting to see if the "new normal" continues. It will be somewhat telling if we still can't break 100 inches of snow here.

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

If it continues, Buffalo averages will certainly surpass Syracuse. For Syracuse to get those greater amounts, it seems we need the low pressures off the East Coast to sweep moist, cold air over the lake. Those lows and the cold have been lacking. With going into a more neutral winter, it will be interesting to see if the "new normal" continues. It will be somewhat telling if we still can't break 100 inches of snow here.

I don't see that happening. BUFs 30 yr average is 30" behind SYR. 

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Average highs in December are also still mild enough that "above average temps" more commonly can lead to rain... Whereas "above average" in January can still bring good chances of snow. Though, the above average Januarys of late haven't done so well in leading to snowy conditions. Below average temps in December can really work with those warmer lake temps to produce the good snows too. 

Average highs for December 24/25 are around 55F in recent memory.

Usually with a touch of drizzle thrown in.

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9 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

While it can happen it's also extremely rare, even for the lower elevations of Oswego... Usually comes more from lake enhancement behind a retro low..Hard to get those numbers with pure lake effect..

 

What a great event. The end of that loop featured only LES and had by far the strongest band across syracuse.

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Current temperature at ALB Int'l is 99 degrees Fahrenheit. This tops the previous high temperature record of 98 for our area which has been the record since 1955! Poughkeepsie also hit a new record high temperature of 99 today from a previous record of 98 in 1944! This makes today the hottest day in our area since 2011!
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