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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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35 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

The front range and Dakotas have amazing springs as well as falls... awesome shorts and T-shirt days to blizzards in the 10's and 20's with no worries of an extended period of shitty 40° rain and overcast. 

Super windy. Very hot in the summer. Very cold in the winter. Very little average snowfall. Flat. Otherwise it’s awesome. 

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9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Bingo! But it’s still fun to watch. Active, cold pattern. The chance is there. I wouldn’t rule out a final snow storm. 

Always need to count on the mid-late April final season ending snow.  Had just shy of 5” last year on April 21st. 

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37 minutes ago, vortmax said:

All of these fantasy charts are 384hrs, not really believing anything outside of 5 days. My guess the above snowfall comes 10+ days out.

Yeah pretty much right at the 10 day mark lol 

GFS does continue to try and mix in some snow on Saturday morning with the next front..

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12 hours ago, Leelee said:

I have a friend near Williston and they are not pleased about the weather there. They get true blizzards that we very rarely get.

I feel like blizzard warnings on the plains are far more tame than if we got a blizzard warning here, they seem to throw them around like candy for even the most minor events.  They can get 3 inches of snow and high winds and its a "blizzard" because of low visibility for 12 hours.  Underwhelming in my opinion.  Our blizzards almost always entail extremely heavy snow along with the reduced visibilities and winds.  Now all that said, this current storm is a true blizzard by any definition with both heavy snow, extremely strong winds, and very low visibilities...not to mention a duration of nearly 3 days.  One of the biggest plains storms in recent memory.  

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The next issue...when will this next front push into the forecast
area and then how fast will it exit on Saturday. There is some
suggestion that it will hang up and then slow its forward
progression with a tightening of the thermal gradient and strong
baroclinic zone developing across the forecast area from SW to NE
Friday night. This could bring a fairly decent period of
precipitation as it slowly works through the region. P-type may even
become a bit tricky as it could get just cold enough to support a
mix of rain and snow across the higher terrain overnight. Have added
a mix of rain and snow across the higher terrain to cover this
potential beginning the second half of Friday night.

Saturday...the cold front appears to move ever so slowly through the
region and then it turns sharply colder on the backside. We might
even see precipitation mix with or change completely over to snow
late in the day at all locations. This is considering 850 hPa temps
are forecast to fall to -7C then to -10C by evening.

Saturday night...its looking more likely that it will be cold enough
aloft (-10C/-11C) to encourage a bit of a lake response. This is
taking into account that Lake Erie and Ontario are now in the upper
30s to low 40s...marginal over lake instability. Nothing significant
but nonetheless impressive for this late in the season. Could see
some minor snow accumulations on grassy areas across the higher
terrain SSE of the lakes overnight. Temperatures wise...lows will be
found in the 20s to low 30s across the forecast area by daybreak
Sunday.
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35 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
The next issue...when will this next front push into the forecast
area and then how fast will it exit on Saturday. There is some
suggestion that it will hang up and then slow its forward
progression with a tightening of the thermal gradient and strong
baroclinic zone developing across the forecast area from SW to NE
Friday night. This could bring a fairly decent period of
precipitation as it slowly works through the region. P-type may even
become a bit tricky as it could get just cold enough to support a
mix of rain and snow across the higher terrain overnight. Have added
a mix of rain and snow across the higher terrain to cover this
potential beginning the second half of Friday night.

Saturday...the cold front appears to move ever so slowly through the
region and then it turns sharply colder on the backside. We might
even see precipitation mix with or change completely over to snow
late in the day at all locations. This is considering 850 hPa temps
are forecast to fall to -7C then to -10C by evening.

Saturday night...its looking more likely that it will be cold enough
aloft (-10C/-11C) to encourage a bit of a lake response. This is
taking into account that Lake Erie and Ontario are now in the upper
30s to low 40s...marginal over lake instability. Nothing significant
but nonetheless impressive for this late in the season. Could see
some minor snow accumulations on grassy areas across the higher
terrain SSE of the lakes overnight. Temperatures wise...lows will be
found in the 20s to low 30s across the forecast area by daybreak
Sunday.

Sounds like a rerun of the entire winter. Stalling cold front, with rain in Sizzlecuse...then it finally moves through and we get some slush...and then N or NW winds kick in and the Finger Lakes down into BGM get the lake effect while we get flurries. Even getting trolled in Mid April...

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