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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

KBUF map is WAY overdone IMO. 
 

 

861F0842-EDE1-41AE-9181-FF33C728C225.jpeg

Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8".

My guess:

SYR - 10"

ROC - 3"

BUF - 2"

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2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8".

My guess:

SYR - 10"

ROC - 3"

BUF - 2"

My guess

BUF 3.5”

ROC 4.1”

SYR 4.2”

BGM: 7.7”

ALB 6.8”

Delta in VT 14.6”

 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

As MJO stated, we don’t have blocking, is that why it wants to slide away? At least NAM is the only disaster thus far. 

It all of a sudden looks like all the other systems this season...just more south and east.

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5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Nbm

1267224992_nbm-conus-nystate-total_snow_10to1-7172800(2).thumb.png.9d21a8f82c142dc807f9fcc3afa542b6.png

Dice roll situation for me in Sullivan basically, and at my relatively lower elevation. I’d like one last 6” to top off what’s otherwise been a mediocre winter. Remarkable, though, that I held a consistent pack for over 30 days after the MLK storm. 

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31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

As MJO stated, we don’t have blocking, is that why it wants to slide away? At least NAM is the only disaster thus far. 

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

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1 hour ago, PerintonMan said:

Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8".

My guess:

SYR - 10"

ROC - 3"

BUF - 2"

I’m siding with BW on this event. GFS has 4” at KBUF at 10-1. I expect a touch drier as we will be colder faster as the overrunning precip is in place. 4-6” is a good call. 

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23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. The last few days have featured later phasing which has resulted in a further SE track. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. 

I never said blocking makes this go further north and west. With no blocking , storms have a chance to trend more north and west but there are also other factors. 

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24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

It also depends on where the blocking is. West based NAO blocking favors inland runners while east based NAO blocking favors nor'easters. 

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