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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

For the Chicago people 

assuming Euro doesnt budge do they put a watch out for area from Chicago north and west where the Euro is showing nothing?  Tough spot to be in hope Ricky drops in.

I seen something on DTW’s forecast that they are calling Thursday a potentially advisory event. I can see they are very skeptical after last time

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Just now, ILSNOW said:

Question are these Kuchera ratio on pivotal a middle ground approach for determining snowfall or is it meaningless?

ratioku.us_mw.png

Not meaningless, but not incredibly meaningful either. So much has to be taken into account when it comes to ratios - not just temperature. Wind also plays a role and I imagine will certainly play one this go around. 

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Focusing on my area and the American models: GFS keeps temps right at freezing during the icing event before temps drop and sleet occurs. Due to marginal temps and heavier rates, I think quite a bit of freezing rain would runoff and lower accretion. 

NAM and 3k NAM keep me around 30 during the icing portion of the event, increasing accretion.

Winds will be an issue if any significant icing should occur. I’m 24 hours away from breaking out the “ice accumulation index chart”.

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Question for you guys since I haven't been following this storm at all since PA is warm sectored. I have a connecting flight leaving Midway tomorrow night at 10:15PM. Is the worst of the storm expected Thursday AM meaning we should be OK for take off? I see some wind and rain in the point and click forecast but it doesn't look like the changeover happens until after midnight? Thanks for any help or info you can provide and hope you guys cash in on some snow!

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1 minute ago, dj3 said:

Question for you guys since I haven't been following this storm at all since PA is warm sectored. I have a connecting flight leaving Midway tomorrow night at 10:15PM. Is the worst of the storm expected Thursday AM meaning we should be OK for take off? I see some wind and rain in the point and click forecast but it doesn't look like the changeover happens until after midnight? Thanks for any help or info you can provide and hope you guys cash in on some snow!

You'll be fine. 

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