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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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Today's rain bomb along I-20 from DFW through East Texas has been incredible with some locations nearly doubling YTD rainfall in less than 24hr. The Mesquite area is up to around 15", DFW up to over 9" and most of area in the 4-8" range. Perfect storm of systems converging over the area. The heaviest rains are slowing edging ESE. I wont be surprised if someone tops 20". What a way to go from major drought to flooding in a few hours.

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For DFW, despite the "sharp" cool down from mid-August on, 2022 is still on track for a top 5 warmest Summer on record (most likely either #3 or #4) with the 2nd highest number of 80*F+ lows on record and the 6th highest number of 100*F+ highs on record.

FWIW, will only need 1 more 100*F+ day to make the top 5.

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I know this year was the hottest July on record in Houston.  The recent rains have reduced the drought and wildfire risk in most of the state, and we are now getting pieces of mid-latitude disturbances that come under the ridge and rain on us.  Like a tropical wave, except not of tropical origin.  I'd post the drought map but an apparent 8.4 kb file limit means I can't post most images.

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30/20 tor watch issued for a good chunk of central TX

   Tornado Watch Number 554
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   725 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central to east-central Texas

   * Effective this Monday night from 725 PM until Midnight CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A discrete supercell or two may persist along a
   west/east-oriented outflow boundary, while a broader squall line
   likely expands and accelerates east across central into east-central
   Texas through the rest of this evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Austin TX to 45
   miles north of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).


   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.



   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 26045.

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SPC SWODY2 seems to follow 12Z CAM guidance closely, with an area of very favorable EHI just S of I-10, such that Houston is barely marginal but nearby SGR, 15 minutes away (an hour away rush hour) is in a 5% tornado risk.  18Z doesn't look much different.  Immediate HOU looks slightly elevated.  


Houston, as a trend, underperforms, coastal storms retard inland progression more than models forecast.  So the odds 0Z models will shift much on something less than a day away.


But Houston rarely has interesting severe weather (last F-4 (pre-EF scale) was November 1992, IIRC) and slight weenie even for slightly elevated storms.  Severe isn't my big thing, snow/ice and tropical, but DFW, a typical thunderstorm matches a once a 5 year Long Island storm.

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