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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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Please correct me if I was wrong - but looks like there's a hint something might be brewing for North TX around 23-24th next week. Of course it's still way too early to predict the p-type and location. But GFS seems starting to join CMC showing at least the pattern will be more favorable for a wintery event around that time frame.

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11 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

This week looks cold with a good chance for freezing rain in North Texas later in the week.

This one seems a bit interesting as it's harder than the event 3 weeks ago for models to reach any consensus at this range. What's even more interesting is that NWS suggested they're picking side with the colder ones like NAM/GFS than EU models. I feel most of time in the past they stayed mid-ground or even tilting warmer. Maybe they just have more faith in NAM in this set up. If that plays out, there could be some impact for the northern half of DFW.

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13 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

This one seems a bit interesting as it's harder than the event 3 weeks ago for models to reach any consensus at this range. What's even more interesting is that NWS suggested they're picking side with the colder ones like NAM/GFS than EU models. I feel most of time in the past they stayed mid-ground or even tilting warmer. Maybe they just have more faith in NAM in this set up. If that plays out, there could be some impact for the northern half of DFW.

Yeah the ECMWF hasn't done well with these shallow, cold air masses which explains why they are leaning colder. NAM could be too cold but I think leaning that way is good at the current lead time.

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37 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Yeah the ECMWF hasn't done well with these shallow, cold air masses which explains why they are leaning colder. NAM could be too cold but I think leaning that way is good at the current lead time.

True! 12Z NAM still stands strong on its cold picture looks like. The not-so-good news is all models seem trending drier at the same time and there's not much time left to flip back to the wetter side? But I'm not a meteorologist so could be wrong for sure B)

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1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

True! 12Z NAM still stands strong on its cold picture looks like. But not-so-good news is all models seem trending drier at the same time? I'm not a meteorologist so could be wrong for sure B)

There is a lot of mid-upper level dry air which has been modeled the entire time but it's saturated high enough to precipitate. From a weather geek standpoint it's not often you see a bone dry mid-upper level sounding with a low level stratiform deck that begins as liquid water and reaches the surface as sleet or freezing rain. It's more frequent to see precipitation begin as snow, melt and refreeze. Thankfully this stratiform type of setup allows everything to be light with low QPF amounts. However, to get sleet we will need some ice crystals which may be hard to attain given the static look to soundings. You would need colder temperatures in the boundary layer and likely slightly better lift than modeled to get the ice crystals necessary for that to materialize, otherwise we're looking at FZRA or FZDZ.

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Thanks for sharing! It's a little hard to believe GFS and NAM are still showing a large difference at this point on where that freezing line will be on Thursday, which could make a notable difference to DFW. CMC is in the middle/closer to NAM and have DFW under freezing rain most of the time. But I'm not very sure about the track record of CMC for these setups. 

Edit: Looks like 18z GFS is retracting the FZRA/sleet band even more towards northwest (warmer for DFW) and NWS continues to side with colder guidance. Interesting!

6 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

There is a lot of mid-upper level dry air which has been modeled the entire time but it's saturated high enough to precipitate. From a weather geek standpoint it's not often you see a bone dry mid-upper level sounding with a low level stratiform deck that begins as liquid water and reaches the surface as sleet or freezing rain. It's more frequent to see precipitation begin as snow, melt and refreeze. Thankfully this stratiform type of setup allows everything to be light with low QPF amounts. However, to get sleet we will need some ice crystals which may be hard to attain given the static look to soundings. You would need colder temperatures in the boundary layer and likely slightly better lift than modeled to get the ice crystals necessary for that to materialize, otherwise we're looking at FZRA or FZDZ.

 

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8 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

50/30 Hail probs on the Severe Tstorm watch just issued. Something to watch

That supercell east of Perrin looks potent.  I’d definitely keep an eye on any potential rotation as it approaches the higher dew points over and east of the I-35 corridor.

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On 2/20/2022 at 7:44 PM, vwgrrc said:

This one seems a bit interesting as it's harder than the event 3 weeks ago for models to reach any consensus at this range. What's even more interesting is that NWS suggested they're picking side with the colder ones like NAM/GFS than EU models. I feel most of time in the past they stayed mid-ground or even tilting warmer. Maybe they just have more faith in NAM in this set up. If that plays out, there could be some impact for the northern half of DFW.

Front is trending colder and faster vs models. Globals see mid levels and don't drive front south. This front has tons of momentum and it will drive south fast and likely won't slow until reaching the Gulf tomorrow night. Strong surface high pressing cold downhill regardless of upper level winds. This will be a long duration freezing drizzle event with temps in 22 to 26 range across N TX. For E TX, the freezing line will be much trickier but I'll side with colder models and go with 29 to 34 during the event for the Tyler area. That means ice on elevated surfaces but roads should be decent here. For N TX, roads will be bad Wed and Thu.

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If there's a god, last night and 2/16 better not be a sign of the lackluster severe weather season to come for the immediate Metroplex (ala 2021 redux), with everything skirting by just to the south / east / west / north and all of the setups being in the nighttime *AGAIN*. 

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3 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Meanwhile the cold front is *well* ahead of schedule: 

 

The freezing line as of 900CST is already sitting around Abilene, TX - Durant, OK line. The latest GFS is only modeling that to play out after midnight. A 15-hour difference is just insane! I don't think I ever seen such a large difference in terms of the timing of a cold front. But on the other hand, I guess that can be a good news as it could make it drier/less froze precipitation? But I'm too sure about this.

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12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

The freezing line as of 900CST is already sitting around Abilene, TX - Durant, OK line. The latest GFS is only modeling that to play out after midnight. A 15-hour difference is just insane! I don't think I ever seen such a large difference in terms of the timing of a cold front. But on the other hand, I guess that can be a good news as it could make it drier/less froze precipitation? But I'm too sure about this.

With the cold so shallow not sure drying will be an issue. Could lead to introduction of more sleet for North Texas as cold will be a bit deeper than expected. Main change is a large shift SE in the freezing rain line.

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1 minute ago, aggiegeog said:

With the cold so shallow not sure drying will be an issue. Could lead to introduction of more sleet for North Texas as cold will be a bit deeper than expected. Main change is a large shift SE in the freezing rain line.

True. This event has a lot less moisture than the one 3 weeks ago. But a bigger portion of that will fall in form of FZRA compared to sleet or snow we had in that one. This could still be a high impact event for at least part of the metro here. 

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All 12z guidance are still grossly behind on the timing/intensity of the cold front. For references, they all modeled the freezing line at noon to be round OKC and Dallas *should* be within 50-55F range. In reality, Downtown OKC is currently sitting at 26F and Dallas is at 40F.

That's just wild given it's short range and how large the deviation is and all models being so off. This makes me wonder if the actual ice we end up getting for DFW will be a lot higher than modeled since they're all showing some rain (ECMWF and GFS are showing pretty much all rain on Thursday).

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5 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

With the cold so shallow not sure drying will be an issue. Could lead to introduction of more sleet for North Texas as cold will be a bit deeper than expected. Main change is a large shift SE in the freezing rain line.

FWIW, 18z NAM is indeed trending drier than previous runs.

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