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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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Tuesday afternoon- warm sector doesn't quite get to MBY just N of Houston in Harris County (Zero SBCape), but S of I-10 and E of I-45 (not a big area, mostly just Galveston and Brazoria counties) does get into the warm sector, and while CAPE in the warm sector is only about 500 J/Kg ahead of the line, 700 (m/s)^2 and 80 knots shear produces an STP of 4.  

 

Despite IAH and DFW being cold sectored 3km and 12km NAM, sim radar shows impressive looking thunderstorms for DFW early afternoon and IAH late afternoon.  Only take a small bump N of the surface low to put IAH on the warm front.

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On 1/22/2023 at 1:20 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Tuesday afternoon- warm sector doesn't quite get to MBY just N of Houston in Harris County (Zero SBCape), but S of I-10 and E of I-45 (not a big area, mostly just Galveston and Brazoria counties) does get into the warm sector, and while CAPE in the warm sector is only about 500 J/Kg ahead of the line, 700 (m/s)^2 and 80 knots shear produces an STP of 4.  

 

Despite IAH and DFW being cold sectored 3km and 12km NAM, sim radar shows impressive looking thunderstorms for DFW early afternoon and IAH late afternoon.  Only take a small bump N of the surface low to put IAH on the warm front.

Not much has changed, SPC has enhanced for tornado for S. Houston metro. Alvin, TX 18Z forecast sounding.  Enhanced risk, from just S. of Houston, extends NE to Pensacola area.

Alvin.png

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Pretty unusual to have such strong deep layer and low level shear coincident with enlarged low level instability, even if deeper layer CAPE profiles appear to be modest at best. A few point forecast soundings showed 0-3km CAPE in excess of 200 J/kg…

Looks like a narrow warm sector “wedge” will be conditionally favorable for supercells near and just SW of the Houston area. Storms along the cold front could initially start as semi discrete supercells. As SPC said, watch the triple point and along the warm front. Low level shear looks very impressive, but I do wonder if storm interactions will lead to a sloppy mess. Also, does anyone have a read on SSTs just offshore?

The low level jet goes bonkers Tuesday night, via models, with the NAM popping a maximum of 90 knots at 850mb. Could see a nighttime severe surge for areas farther NE toward the central Gulf Coast. 

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WWUS40 KWNS 241647
WWP7

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2023

WT 0027
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       :  40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.

$$

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Warm front got from VIC to SGR in two hours, I think the tornado warnings so far around Houston have been in cells too far into the cold sector to produce, but warm front is now near I-10 in Harris County, or real tornadoes, not just warned tornadoes, seem possible.

 

The cell near Tomball was 20 miles into the cold sector, but the tornadic signal on TIAH radar was real.

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11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Warm front got from VIC to SGR in two hours, I think the tornado warnings so far around Houston have been in cells too far into the cold sector to produce, but warm front is now near I-10 in Harris County, or real tornadoes, not just warned tornadoes, seem possible.

 

The cell near Tomball was 20 miles into the cold sector, but the tornadic signal on TIAH radar was real.

There's a severe-warned storm along the US 59 corridor NE of Victoria and SW of Houston (near Edna) that looks ready to take advantage of the warm sector.

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Feb 1st starting to look a bit interesting for NTX again. GFS is joining CMC today but still look a bit too warm. Plenty of time left for changes of course!

Edit 0z 1/27 - Canadian is really ramping up for next week and now shows NTX basically under ice for two straight days. The 2m temps for most of that period has a significant divergence (15-20F) between CMC and GFS, which makes all the difference in this case. I don't recall I ever seen that divergence at this range.

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DFW and points west looking like a skating rink most of this week. NE TX is more borderline given the Ouachita Mountain shadow but I think they will also join the party by Monday night and especially late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some snow possible Thu if surface stays in mid 30s.

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Austin has ice on the ground Tuesday into Wednesday on all the high res except the FV3, and College Station, while no ice verbatim, gets w/i a couple of degrees of freezing on NAM.  DFW is certainly cold enough, the issue would seem to be how much precip.  NAMs setting up the icing boundary near I-35 in C. Texas, 

 

No ice in Houston, but 2 to 3 inches more rain, mainly N of I-10, near where DW Hooks (very near TIAH doppler) has had just over 3 inches the last six hours.  Interesting week ahead.

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I'm not sure I understand EWX's justifications for reluctantly including Travis County in the WS Watch, that the higher elevations in the W. part of the county might be cold enough for freezing rain.  The new AUS airport at Bergstrom gets colder than the old Mueller site does, because cold air drains to the lower elevations.

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3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm not sure I understand EWX's justifications for reluctantly including Travis County in the WS Watch, that the higher elevations in the W. part of the county might be cold enough for freezing rain.  The new AUS airport at Bergstrom gets colder than the old Mueller site does, because cold air drains to the lower elevations.

The ASOS moved a few years ago at a lower part of the AUS property and the office in New Braunfels has mentioned that with all the record lows seen lately at Bergstrom versus Mabry. 

Part of it is also the county is a singular zone versus say some in Florida put as "inland" versus "coastal." 

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