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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

TxDOT, NTTA and local municipalities have been doing some treatment on the highways and main thoroughfares.

The secondary roads and side streets are still skating rinks.

Pete mentioned this from his facebook in response to the melting

 

40m  ·
READ CLOSELY:
Yes, some melting is happening due to "warm" rain in places and limiting ice amounts. However, temps are below freezing and will stay below freezing as widespread rain continues to fall. Threat for re-freezing and icing continues, especially this evening- tonight.
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Update from the NWS FWD

 

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Thursday Night/

Widespread freezing rain continues this afternoon across much of
North Texas and is largely tied to increasing warm advection
around 700 mb. Most of this activity is falling out of clouds
based around 8000 ft. Beneath all of this, incoming solar
radiation and a lack of cold advection is working on some of the
ice pack on area roads and we are seeing melting despite air
temperatures in the upper 20s. While this may lead to a false
sense of relief, there is still a substantial threat for
considerable icing, especially as we head into the evening hours.
High resolution guidance and current radar trends show a large
area of precipitation extending well back to the southwest of San
Angelo. This activity will increase in coverage through the
evening and as we do lose incoming solar radiation, additional icing
will commence on trees and roads/bridges. So, we`re not done with
the ice storm just yet and we`ll leave the current warning
configuration unchanged with the greatest impacts still expected
west of I-35. We launched a balloon just a little bit ago, and
the dry layer beneath this cloud deck is in the process of
saturating and will continue to support freezing rain, especially
into the late evening hours. As the upper trough approaches later
tonight, widespread precip will begin to spread south and east as
temperatures steadily creep up to or slightly above freezing. Rain
will generally prevail across the southeast counties while some
freezing rain will continue across the northwest into early
Thursday morning. We`ll continue to go slightly cooler than
guidance for highs on Thursday as abundant cloud cover will
persist. The core of the upper trough will track right across
North Texas during the afternoon. Strong dynamic forcing and
cooling aloft will likely lead to additional precipitation,
primarily rain, although some wet slushy snow may mix in across
the northern half of the CWA.

Dunn

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3 hours ago, Chinook said:

This would scare me

ice storm tweet.jpg

Very damaging storm there. Over 150K customers still without power and trees down everywhere. Lots of people freezing in their dark homes as well since there aren’t many gas heat customers. Brief glazes with some sleet are fairly common in Austin but this is way worse. In my time living there the brief glazes were enough to essentially shut the city down. Can’t imagine this. 

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53 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Well they already recorded 2-3" of snow just west of the OKC metro tonight. Will be interesting to see how this progresses tonight and later this week.

I’m curious because I’m going to be in Broken Bow tomorrow through Sunday, and would love it if I saw some accumulating snow while in a cabin for the weekend. So here’s to hoping the nam is onto something haha.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Euro showing consistent 7-9 inches of rain through Friday evening just North of Houston.  It has been very dry for several weeks, and the rainfall will be over several days.  Still, that rain would be falling over the watershed of the San Jacinto river, which is flood prone.  GFS isn't a match, but generally supports the Euro, GFS ensembles have widespread 4 inch rain.

EuroFlood.png

GFS_Flood.png

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4 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Do we want to rename this thread? Or start a new thread for 2023?

SPC highlighted much of eastern OK, NC TX, and eastern KS in their Day 4 (Friday) Outlook for severe weather will all hazards possible.

Are there any mods who post in the Texas threads?  You could start a new 2023 thread and then modify the title next January.

 

Per HGX forecast disco, and recurring for several days, is NBM 3000+ SBCAPE values Saturday ahead of a frontal passage.  

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