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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


Northof78
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34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They were in the weenie Rt 111 area band in the morning and caught the south shore enhancement later. Upton only 16” though, a bit of a surprise. 

Levittown 19.2”? WTF? 

I’m in Levittown and measured anywhere between 15”-18” where I was able to avoid the big drifts. The 19.2” sounds kinda high still, but don’t think it was too far from reality. We had some legit bands all night and morning.

 

My parents out in Dix Hills measured less around 14”, which kinda surprises me.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This probably would’ve been another Boxing Day 2010 type outcome without that convective way out to sea low (and it somewhat did-coastal Monmouth and Ocean did very well). So yeah someone should’ve taken my advice about dumping the ice, nitro, whatever to stop the convection lol. Forky wasn’t kidding when he said it should’ve kept trending west with the upper air evolution improving as it kept doing. The offshore low strung everything out. 

So maybe for me it’s a wash. The crazy banding went east of me with how it evolved today, it would’ve been over NJ with how it “should” have evolved. 

So the offshore low formed because of the warmth of the ocean out there?  So warmer SST give and take away at the same time.... more moisture available for more snow, but also a more eastward track.

Quite honestly out here, it doesn't look all that different from Boxing Day, the main difference is that storm lasted longer (a full 24 hours.)

That storm was like 18 inches here and this storm was like 14 inches....you really can't tell the difference.  I think you and I were up til the end of Boxing Day if I remember correctly, we both measured just as the snow was ending and you were in Long Beach, how much did you get in that storm?  How much did you get in this one?  Does 18 inches in that one vs 14 inches in this one sound about right to you?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean Brooklyn topped out at a foot.  I think we can at least say that all of Manhattan had less than a foot of snow.

 

I'm sure there was more in Brooklyn than in Manhattan, but are we just going back to the days of the Park just reporting half asses totals again. That's the number everyone looks to for NYC totals. Can't they ever get it right? Everyone I've talked to says there was at least 10 maybe 10.5 inches in the Park, where did they come up with 8.3?

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20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Are we really buying that, or are we just back to accepting bad totals from whomever does or doesn't measure at the Park nowadays.

There was the debacle of the Central Park Zookeeper for many years, until they finally gave it to The Conservancy which wasn't perfect but much better than the Central Park Zoo, now who's not taking the measurements these days? I've talked to people in Manhattan today, 8.3 is just another in a long line of under measurements the Park is famous for.

the parks measurement makes sense this time, a bunch of areas between newark and NYC recorded around 8" - heaviest banding was juuuuuust east of us ; thankfully we didnt completely suck subsidence 

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

central park ended up with 8.3 inches of snow..

No, that's what was reported, that's not what actually fell. People just accept any number the NWS throws out from the Park even though they don't have anyone that actually measures there. It's been a problem on and off for decades.

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8 minutes ago, jamesny said:

I’m in Levittown and measured anywhere between 15”-18” where I was able to avoid the big drifts. The 19.2” sounds kinda high still, but don’t think it was too far from reality. We had some legit bands all night and morning.

 

My parents out in Dix Hills measured less around 14”, which kinda surprises me.

 

 

A poster here measured 17.5” in Dix Hills a few pages back lol. @psv88in Commack also had 17.5. It’s why I didn’t attempt anything at a measurement here in Long Beach today because of the drifts. It seemed a little less to me than we had on 1/4/18 where we had 15”. That’s mainly what I went on lol. Half of outside of my house has little snow and the other half has 2-3 or so foot drifts. 

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2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm sure there was more in Brooklyn than in Manhattan, but are we just going back to the days of the Park just reporting half asses totals again. That's the number everyone looks to for NYC totals. Can't they ever get it right? Everyone I've talked to says there was at least 10 maybe 10.5 inches in the Park, where did they come up with 8.3?

The other reason that makes 8.3 suspect is that there was more than that north of the Park in the Bronx and also more than that just west of the Park in NE NJ

 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

oh thats awesome, did you take the LIE or the Southern State,  I'm pretty close to the Southern State.

 

I took the LIE, but only after taking 25B to Nassau County. The ramp to the LIE from the Clearview Expressway was closed due to stuck trucks.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A poster here measured 17.5” in Dix Hills a few pages back lol. @psv88in Commack also had 17.5. It’s why I didn’t attempt anything at a measurement here in Long Beach today because of the drifts. It seemed a little less to me than we had on 1/4/18 where we had 15”. That’s mainly what I went on lol. Half of my house has little snow and the other half has 2-3 or so foot drifts. 

I felt like we had higher snowfall rates and stronger winds in 1/4/18 that day was an all day white out and full on Blizzard conditions?  This one didn't verify as a Blizzard like that one did at JFK did it?

JFK had 6 hours of true blizzard conditions so it was actually a double blizzard lol.

Know what I call that storm?  The HALF GOAT lol.  Because it had true blizzard conditions for 6 hours vs Jan 2016 (the GOAT), which had it for 12 hours (so a quadruple blizzard lol), and there was 15 inches of snow vs the GOAT's 30+ inches of snow.  The duration was half that of Jan 2016 too.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A poster here measured 17.5” in Dix Hills a few pages back lol. @psv88in Commack also had 17.5. It’s why I didn’t attempt anything at a measurement here in Long Beach today because of the drifts. It seemed a little less to me than we had on 1/4/18 where we had 15”. That’s mainly what I went on lol. Half of my house has little snow and the other half has 2-3 or so foot drifts. 

How much less than Boxing Day for you in this storm?

 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This probably would’ve been another Boxing Day 2010 type outcome without that convective way out to sea low (and it somewhat did-coastal Monmouth and Ocean did very well). So yeah someone should’ve taken my advice about dumping the ice, nitro, whatever to stop the convection lol. Forky wasn’t kidding when he said it should’ve kept trending west with the upper air evolution improving as it kept doing. The offshore low strung everything out. 

So maybe for me it’s a wash. The crazy banding went east of me with how it evolved today, it would’ve been over NJ with how it “should” have evolved. 

Somehow the Jersey shore ends up getting 20" in either/both scenarios lol.

 

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16 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm sure there was more in Brooklyn than in Manhattan, but are we just going back to the days of the Park just reporting half asses totals again. That's the number everyone looks to for NYC totals. Can't they ever get it right? Everyone I've talked to says there was at least 10 maybe 10.5 inches in the Park, where did they come up with 8.3?

Probably under a pine tree.

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Hi all, apologies for stretching the definition of what goes in an obs thread here, but just wondering if any of the LI folks know have been on any of the big roads from Nassau westward.  Have to head upstate early tomorrow.  I figure getting off LI will be the toughest part.  Any quick insights would be really appreciated. Thanks.

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But if it wasn't for that convection NYC would've gotten 20" in this one too just like they did for Boxing Day, with or without any Atlantic blocking.

 

There are exceptions. This could have been one. But it was still a nice storm for NYC.

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Huntington is all the way at the bottom of the Suffolk County list, I wonder how that's possible? They only got 10"?

So you got more snow at Long Beach than you would've gotten in Huntington?

 

Pretty sure there was more than 10” there. I’m not there now so can’t say but it should be evident tomorrow when I drive back. And I’ll have to make a detour through second jackpot zone in Lindenhurst/Babylon on the way lol. 

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24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I felt like we had higher snowfall rates and stronger winds in 1/4/18 that day was an all day white out and full on Blizzard conditions?  This one didn't verify as a Blizzard like that one did at JFK did it?

JFK had 6 hours of true blizzard conditions so it was actually a double blizzard lol.

Know what I call that storm?  The HALF GOAT lol.  Because it had true blizzard conditions for 6 hours vs Jan 2016 (the GOAT), which had it for 12 hours (so a quadruple blizzard lol), and there was 15 inches of snow vs the GOAT's 30+ inches of snow.  The duration was half that of Jan 2016 too.

 

 

Imagine the January 2018 blizzard with its 949 mb pressure made a loop south of montauk instead of speeding away just east of the benchmark? That would of been the blizzard to end all blizzards. I have to agree in regards to wind that January 2018 was stronger, I remember getting frequent gusts into the 50s with that one, this one was still obviously a blizzard out here in western suffolk but gusts were mostly in the 35-45 mph range besides a few isolated around 50. Snowfall rates 2018 wins too 3”/hr here then, today was 2”/hr at worst, but the duration of this event allowed it to still pull ahead in the final snowfall totals department

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59 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Hi all, apologies for stretching the definition of what goes in an obs thread here, but just wondering if any of the LI folks know have been on any of the big roads from Nassau westward.  Have to head upstate early tomorrow.  I figure getting off LI will be the toughest part.  Any quick insights would be really appreciated. Thanks.

Northern state wasn’t too bad…I was also on Hempstead Turnpike and there were some black top

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34 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Imagine the January 2018 blizzard with its 949 mb pressure made a loop south of montauk instead of speeding away just east of the benchmark? That would of been the blizzard to end all blizzards. I have to agree in regards to wind that January 2018 was stronger, I remember getting frequent gusts into the 50s with that one, this one was still obviously a blizzard out here in western suffolk but gusts were mostly in the 35-45 mph range besides a few isolated around 50. Snowfall rates 2018 wins too 3”/hr here then, today was 2”/hr at worst, but the duration of this event allowed it to still pull ahead in the final snowfall totals department

This was impressive but nothing like Jan 2018 in Long Beach. That was about 6 hours of complete awesomeness. About what I imagine it was like in Lindenhurst, Holbrook and Commack this morning lol. 

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2 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Imagine the January 2018 blizzard with its 949 mb pressure made a loop south of montauk instead of speeding away just east of the benchmark? That would of been the blizzard to end all blizzards. I have to agree in regards to wind that January 2018 was stronger, I remember getting frequent gusts into the 50s with that one, this one was still obviously a blizzard out here in western suffolk but gusts were mostly in the 35-45 mph range besides a few isolated around 50. Snowfall rates 2018 wins too 3”/hr here then, today was 2”/hr at worst, but the duration of this event allowed it to still pull ahead in the final snowfall totals department

949 wow, was that the strongest blizzard we've ever had?

I can't remember anything stronger than that or even close

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

This was impressive but nothing like Jan 2018 in Long Beach. That was about 6 hours of complete awesomeness. About what I imagine it was like in Lindenhurst, Holbrook and Commack this morning lol. 

Double Jan 2018 and you have Jan 2016.  So see, you didn't actually miss all of Jan 2016, you got to experience half of it in Jan 2018.

If you look at it that way.....

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty sure there was more than 10” there. I’m not there now so can’t say but it should be evident tomorrow when I drive back. And I’ll have to make a detour through second jackpot zone in Lindenhurst/Babylon on the way lol. 

Awesome, maybe you'll be able to compare it to what it looks like in Long Beach.  I don't think any of this stuff is going to melt before Wednesday.

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