Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,192
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    2015Wrx
    Newest Member
    2015Wrx
    Joined

Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


 Share

Recommended Posts

Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January?
Why do you think I put the question mark? You never know, we could get a shot or 3 in Feb-April but if we get this as a big dog for everybody I think we all will be satisfied

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January?
Especially when 3 Biggest storms of my life…. I’m 30…. Are Feb 04, March 09, Feb 14 
Agree.  The 06 had another winter storm next weekend in the SE.
Lame Title and too early. 
There I edited the title

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events?  My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data.  Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This setup is not overly different from this past weekend with the large +PNA ridge out west and incoming PJ s/w from Canada diving into the plains. The euro shears this shortwave out enough to delay the phase which ultimately results in some backlash snow showers over eastern NC as it wraps up and pounds the Northeast. I will say this, there isn't much margin on the Euro/GFS between flurries and 12+ inches. This shortwave has some serious potential if it were to cutoff/phase earlier (of course theoretically they all do I guess). Still a solid 4 days out and time to trend (in either direction). Lastly I will say this appears to be the end of the pattern that has provided us a pretty solid January of storms. These great patterns have the tendency to end in a bang (Although that doesn't necessarily mean your backyard will get hammered).

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Cat Lady said:

Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events?  My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data.  Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region.

It greatly varies across the state. There is no one climate in the state.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Ghicks said:

Looks to be better odds In the east than in the foothills if I’m looking at this correctly 

It’s really too early to say. At the moment, sure, but we’re 4 days out and a slight tick here or a slight tick there can mean a foot in the west or a foot in the east. The fact that a large area of the southeast gets love from the ensembles shows the lack of consistency right now. Atlanta to DC and all in-between are in play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

Thanks! What a great resource!  I searched for snow / ice / freezing rain events that impacted wake county since 1990 (since I had to manually copy paste data) to get a frequency distribution of number of events that occur in any year.  While the average is just shy of 3 for that area, we are most likely to see far fewer or far more events than to see the average.  All that to say climatology would support the idea that the current set up has us on a snow train, similar to how we see groups of wave coming off the coast of Africa during peak hurricane season.  We're already above average, and I would expect us to have more events coming down the line just based on this event level frequency data.

image.thumb.png.64bfc2bacde3d80e0980d61ec9d751ac.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This is a favorable trend on the GFS ensemble mean for additional/earlier phasing. Who knows if it will continue.

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh120_trend.gif

Need the Low to get going over the central gulf of Mexico for this to be a big snow maker, especially back to the West. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS:
1643306400-o97uIaPET20.png
Euro:
1643306400-Ci2ZePfuxr8.png

Note the subtle differences between the two regarding the main piece of energy near the 4 corners. Note the stronger SW Ridge on the Euro as well.  That is the difference maker.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...