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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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1 minute ago, Hc7 said:

Looks like Jersey/Nassau/Central LI going to get smacked pretty good

If this keeps up until mid morning, Long Island will get buried. Holy.... 

Surprised at the lack of hardcore banding thus far but I shouldn't too loudly given how that usually goes for Nassau County. I'm sure that's coming in a few hours where people will rip at 3"/hr under said bands. Crazy how this has evolved over just the last 12 hours. 

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9 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

In all fairness, even with a family of scientists, I could not possibly pass the classes needed for a met degree. But I could do the weather on TV....

lol personally I don't think it would be worth the trouble, the weather is fundamentally unpredictable, as this storm has shown.  Use your brainpower to go into something like quantum mechanics or cosmology or both and try to discover what happened before the big bang ;-)

 

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If this keeps up until mid morning, Long Island will get buried. Holy.... 

Surprised at the lack of hardcore banding thus far but I shouldn't too loudly given how that usually goes for Nassau County. I'm sure that's coming in a few hours where people will rip at 3"/hr under said bands. Crazy how this has evolved over just the last 12 hours. 

dont want banding that results in haves and have nots I'd much rather have a general heavy snow everywhere

 

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7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Right here. For the 1000th time the Kuchera amounts aren’t happening. Those seem to assume like 16-1 ratios and that won’t happen in the strong winds we have in the meat of the storm and especially tomorrow. 12-1 sure so you can increase the 10-1 map somewhat but not too much. It would still be a great event though regardless. 

12-1 is always a good benchmark to use,  1 foot to 1 inch lol

 

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9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Feel free to give your o/u relative to these fx:

ACY 14.5

EWR 8.2

NYC 10.7

JFK 12.5

LGA 14.4

ISP 21.3

(local e LI 25-30)

BDR 18.8

BDL 14.5

PVD 26.5

BOS 30.2

PWM 27.5

CON 25.5

ORH 34.5

HYA 22.5

ALB 3.5

POU 7.0

no way LGA gets more than JFK unless there's a measuring mistake or error  EWR -8 NYC -10  LGA -12 JFK -15 similar to December 2009

 

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06z GFS takes a track past Cape Cod and hooks back into western Gulf of Maine. I noted a possible 50-100 mile eastward initialization error (shows as 70.5W but more likely 71.5W) which I think could translate into additional deepening on what is already quite an impressive 18-hour deepening cycle (to 970 mbs as shown). Factoring that in I would expect very slow eastward drift of the banding and heavy snow axes now setting up, and possibly back into that earlier "superstorm" sort of evolution which might up snowfall potential especially for LI and CT, and also wind speed potential later today. 

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