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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

A lot out news outlets have been advertising a warm up to the 50s and 60s later this week, if the NAM is right that forecast would look quite bad

NAM has been stubborn with this but it's totally on an island.  6z Herpderp is mid-upper 40s for tomorrow while 3k NAM is near freezing.  

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

NAM has been stubborn with this but it's totally on an island.  6z Herpderp is mid-upper 40s for tomorrow while 3k NAM is near freezing.  

Seems to be keeping the LL flow from the NE between the departing high and the lingering ocean low, and not 'seeing' the WAA.

The NAM does get temps well into the 50s for much of the region on Friday though before the colder air presses in.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Seems to be keeping the LL flow from the NE between the departing high and the lingering ocean low, and not 'seeing' the WAA.

The NAM does get temps well into the 50s for much of the region on Friday though before the colder air presses in.

Yes, but I'll note that 3k at 60hrs has the front noticeably south of where 12k has it at the same time.  This is the type of situation where the NAM "should" be good at understanding temp boundaries.  We'll see.  

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

For clarification...is this the same "FV3-GFS" that came out a few years ago?

Not exactly.  The "new" GFS uses the FV3 dynamical core.  A model's dynamical core is the portion of the model doing the physics of atmospheric motion.  The "FV3" on TT is the mesoscale model that also uses the FV3 dynamical core.  

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

For clarification...is this the same "FV3-GFS" that came out a few years ago?

It's all based on the FV3 core now, global included. FV3-HiRes, if I am not mistaken, is an in-development mesoscale model based on the same physics as the new GFS that will eventually supersede the NAM and be the basis for mesoscale ensembles. But I could be dead wrong, I don't really get much up to date model development news.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

the advertised temp drop on the gfs from 6z to 12z is suspect.  even if the surface temps drop like that, the mid levels are not ideal.  i think we want that trailing wave friday to take its sweet time getting itself together for this to work out.

it failed with the advertised temp drop on the 20th

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