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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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I know RAH uses the objective criteria for guidance on issuing county notices but wonder since Canes Hockey is a 'Go' this evening would they take subjective criteria into consideration as well.  In other words, better to have Wake under a WSW just so they can cya with that event full of traffic.  Sort of a---well folks, we had issued a WSW prior to the game

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

I know RAH uses the objective criteria for guidance on issuing county notices but wonder since Canes Hockey is a 'Go' this evening would they take subjective criteria into consideration as well.  In other words, better to have Wake under a WSW just so they can cya with that event full of traffic.  Sort of a---well folks, we had issued a WSW prior to the game

I don't think they will do that. I think if they feel there is a decent chance at 3+ they will go warning

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

I know RAH uses the objective criteria for guidance on issuing county notices but wonder since Canes Hockey is a 'Go' this evening would they take subjective criteria into consideration as well.  In other words, better to have Wake under a WSW just so they can cya with that event full of traffic.  Sort of a---well folks, we had issued a WSW prior to the game

I am pretty confident we will be NEAR 3 inches and it will be a high impact snow with temps, so yea, I do actually think a warning is warranted 

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think the GFS wants to develop a bit of banding, especially against the transition zone to IP/ZR. That wouldn't be unusual. To the north it is better ratios getting the job done.

I saw that too on the gfs.  Question is where exactly will that set up and how large and long of duration will it be..  Progged just northwest of the airport attm.  Could be further northwest or further southeast.  Going to have to wait until nowcast time I'm afraid

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

I saw that too on the gfs.  Question is where exactly will that set up and how large and long of duration will it be..  Progged just northwest of the airport attm.  Could be further northwest or further southeast.  Going to have to wait until nowcast time I'm afraid

In this storm anything NW of you modeled is a good thing. You still have room to work with

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Ok I’m ready to make a Call (bc Ik you’re all waiting with Anticipation) AND SURROUNDING AREAS for listed 

CLT- Dusting -2” 

GSO/Winston- 1-3” (We all know these areas always Do well) 

Fayetteville - 2-4” (Mixing issues at some point) 

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel-Hell - 3-6”+ 

Roxboro- 2 feet :lol:

Columbia- Dusting-2” 

Elizabeth City/Norfolk/Hampton - 4-8” 

Wilmington/Myrtle Beach - Dusting-1 (Sleet), 1/4”-1/2” ICE 

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4 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Think CLT Metro Gets A WWA? Cabarrus already has one? I figure Rowan minimum? 

Their most recent discussion mentions the possibility later if things play out a little more enhanced than present thinking.

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5 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

Screen Shot 2022-01-21 at 12.15.28 PM.png

Yep that was my worry actually only takes a dusting bam a mess I think they could go with advisory imo(Edit) I don't they can since it might not be an inch which is the min)[the more you know lol] WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Snow accumulations 1-3 inches; Any freezing rain accumulations less than ¼ inch; Any sleet accumulations less than ½ inch. Winter Weather Advisories are issued in any one of the three criteria are forecast to be met

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Gsp discussion 

TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EST: Upper divergence is ramping up, as indicated
by cooling cloud temps streaming into the area thanks to right
entrance region jet dynamics. This forcing is causing more snow
to fall and seed the low-level moisture across the NC mountains
(lots of reports of accumulating snow). So far, all the model
guidance seems to be struggling with this (consensus PoPs are less
than 15%). So it`s really challenging to assess how much this will
continue as we head thru the day. For now, think QPF will be very
light, and will handle with a Special Wx Statement (SPS). But an
advisory may be needed, if banding sets up (or the snow just stays
more persistent than expected). Outside the mountains, there`s
a deeper dry layer preventing the seeder-feeder mechanism at the
moment. However, both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings show overall
moistening profiles this aftn, and frontogenesis will ramp up toward
sunset, as a strong shortwave approaches from the west. The banding
will be parallel to the frontal zone (SW-NE orientation), but
the exact placement is still up for debate among the guidance. It
could very well set up over the southern and central NC mountains,
extending to the NW NC Piedmont. Then, things will shift SE, and the
best rates are still expected to be from Greenwood, SC to Cabarrus,
NC and points E. This is where our current Winter Wx Advisory is,
and that looks good. With the overall trends in the guidance since
the 00z runs trending a little higher QPF this evening further
west into the Piedmont, we may need to expand the advisory. But
there`s still not enough confidence, and will assess all the 12z
guidance and the latest radar/satellite trends before making a
decision. Will handle non-mountain snow/black ice concerns with
an SPS as well for now.

Otherwise, temps/dewpts/sky/wind all look good. It`s just the
PoPs/QPF/SnowAmt we`re really concerned about.

A strong short wave drops into the area tonight along with a
strong upper jet streak. This induces cyclogenesis off the SE
coast. The surface low remains relatively far off shore. The H85
low is also to our east. This keeps the low level flow weak and E to
NE. There is quite a bit of low level moisture across the area but
no significant moisture flux from either the Gulf or Atlantic. There
is an increase in deep moisture late this afternoon and evening
though. Given the strong forcing and decent moisture, have trended
toward the higher precip chances seen in the guidance. That said,
don`t have any likely PoP west of the I-77 corridor. Expect there
will be precip moving west to east across the area, but coverage
and QPF will be limited. Forecast soundings and partial thickness
values suggest mainly snow for most of the area. Some sleet will
be possible at onset, with more of a rain/snow mix over NE GA,
the western Upstate, and the warmer NC valleys to start. Precip
changes to all snow before ending after midnight.

Highs today and lows tonight will be well below normal.

 

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