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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

35/28 (we had quite a bit of rain so we are close saturated)  here now.  Here are the temps and DP's area wide. 

image.png.eda74537b23158e16cea1a3ce5033ee3.pngimage.png.8e11de45782470e790e7b72fef4d8cc2.png

Thanks for posting both the temp and dewpoints - I'm at 34/24 at home right now. Have a hard time believing I drop much below freezing this evening. We'll find out soon enough.

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There was never to be much of anything during the daylight hours. In fact, as recent as yesterday, some forecasts for today included sunshine. If anything, today has "overperformed"

That may be true but I could have sworn that a lot of the forecasters for local weather we're saying that it was supposed to start at 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. that was with the last 2 days that I saw. So if the raider looks this dry are we still in time frame for seven or eight or is it going to be like 11:00 or midnight

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10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Even my less-than-enamored forecast of the last few days may prove to be too optimistic.  

Latest from Elliott at MU:

I created a "Wintry Mix Timeline" to depict arrival times of sleet/frz. rain this evening. Areas along & south of the PA Turnpike may only see a 15-30 min. period of #sleet before a transition to #ice, while areas north of the Turnpike receive up to 0.5" of sleet. #pawx
 
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Well it once again looks like it's all collapsing right before game time.  WWA now reduced to up to 1" of sleet and .1" - .2" of freezing rain.  NWS must have looked at the 18z HRRR which basically showed almost no sleet, with most of the precip freezing rain up until dawn and then rising above 32 with plain rain for a few hours at the end, which is around 10:00 - 11:00am.

My high today was 34.0 which occurred at midnight.  My low was 29.1.  My intra-day high was 32.7.  I'm back to 32.2 and holding steady.  Dew point is 23 and more importantly, the wet bulb has risen to 29.3...a sign that the cooling effects of the first hour or two of steady precip will only be enough to drop back to between 29 and 30 degrees.  I guess we just look forward to the dry, sunny weather all of next week with temps gradually warming back up to 50 by Wednesday.

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13 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well it once again looks like it's all collapsing right before game time.  WWA now reduced to up to 1" of sleet and .1" - .2" of freezing rain.  NWS must have looked at the 18z HRRR which basically showed almost no sleet, with most of the precip freezing rain up until dawn and then rising above 32 with plain rain for a few hours at the end, which is around 10:00 - 11:00am.

My high today was 34.0 which occurred at midnight.  My low was 29.1.  My intra-day high was 32.7.  I'm back to 32.2 and holding steady.  Dew point is 23 and more importantly, the wet bulb has risen to 29.3...a sign that the cooling effects of the first hour or two of steady precip will only be enough to drop back to between 29 and 30 degrees.  I guess we just look forward to the dry, sunny weather all of next week with temps gradually warming back up to 50 by Wednesday.

I hate to be a broken record but I think its incredibly hard to have a significant icing event unless temps are starting in the low to mid 20's (assuming WAA warming is why it is ice and not snow). 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I hate to be a broken record but I think its incredibly hard to have a significant icing event unless temps are starting in the low to mid 20's (assuming WAA warming is why it is ice and not snow). 

Lol…did I miss the event?

Maybe we should let things play out tonight?

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well it once again looks like it's all collapsing right before game time.  WWA now reduced to up to 1" of sleet and .1" - .2" of freezing rain.  NWS must have looked at the 18z HRRR which basically showed almost no sleet, with most of the precip freezing rain up until dawn and then rising above 32 with plain rain for a few hours at the end, which is around 10:00 - 11:00am.

My high today was 34.0 which occurred at midnight.  My low was 29.1.  My intra-day high was 32.7.  I'm back to 32.2 and holding steady.  Dew point is 23 and more importantly, the wet bulb has risen to 29.3...a sign that the cooling effects of the first hour or two of steady precip will only be enough to drop back to between 29 and 30 degrees.  I guess we just look forward to the dry, sunny weather all of next week with temps gradually warming back up to 50 by Wednesday.

Plenty cold enough for Winter precip tonight!

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

24 hours later, CTP isn't looking so bad for waiting to hoist advisories. 

I agree, they did a good job.

I was just thinking that we track these events on here for over a week. By the time the storm gets to within a couple of days, it seems like it takes forever to get to game time. So many ups & downs and changes along the way. 

I am going to try to enjoy whatever wintry precip that I get tonight.

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not calling anything I was responding to Carlisle saying the models were downscaling.  No way there is 1/2 to 1" ice accretion when the temp is near freezing.  That is all. 

33/28 here now - I expect zero icing on roads in this area. Perhaps some glazing on trees and power lines for a few hours later tonight. I think you need to get up in the MSV until there's issues of significance. 

Not unexpected. 

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