Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 49 minutes ago, Superstorm said: GFS catching on to ramping up storm further south and west. . I’m going with a combo of the DT forecast with the RGEM. 2 inches of snow for MDT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m going with a combo of the DT forecast with the RGEM. 2 inches of snow for MDT! What start time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: GFS catching on to ramping up storm further south and west. . Now casting time! All of the models have struggled more than usual with this event. It’s a very complicated set up, so let’s see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The GFS caving makes me feel a bit better I might see mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: What start time? Roll the dice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The Euro keeps ticking slightly west each run today. I want my LSV Advisory snow tomorrow. Here are 6z, 12z and 18z Euro today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts this evening: SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave energy dropping out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Friday morning will phase with southern stream energy moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased moisture/lift should yield light snow across most of CPA Friday. While some of the hires ensemble guidance was trending bearish in terms of snowfall potential, there is enough support from the global guidance |particularly the 27/12Z ECMWF| to increase POPs by 20-40% over previous fcst based on what we expect to be a very light, but measurable snowfall (0.1-0.5") on Friday into Friday night. Model QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for accumulating snow late Friday night through Saturday morning with the main axis of snow shifting toward the I95 corridor. Updated storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient along I95 trending lower farther to the north/west. The latest snowfall fcst has remained consistent in showing 1-2" east of the US-15/I-81 corridor with max amounts around 3" in far southeast Lancaster County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, canderson said: The GFS caving makes me feel a bit better I might see mood flakes. I do actually love the term "mood flakes", because every time there are flakes, I get in a mood... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18z Euro unburied the entire eastern half of Massachusetts with 30”+. Peak is 39”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It appears that Mike Trout is a weenie and a snow lover...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: It appears that Mike Trout is a weenie and a snow lover...lol Trout has no shame in being a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, canderson said: 18z Euro unburied the entire eastern half of Massachusetts with 30”+. Peak is 39”. What do you mean by "unburied"? Don't you mean "buried"? I found a small area with even more than 39"...if you look at the lighter colored oval immediately to the right of the "r" in Worcester, that oval is 41". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: What do you mean by "unburied"? Don't you mean "buried"? I found a small area with even more than 39"...if you look at the lighter colored oval immediately to the right of the "r" in Worcester, that oval is 41". Strange autocorrect - meant buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Interesting NAM run. Eastern sections scraped by the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Dear god New England just got destroyed by the NAM. What a dream run for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Dear god New England just got destroyed by the NAM. What a dream run for them.Have a friend right outside Boston who is going to get demolished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Dear god New England just got destroyed by the NAM. What a dream run for them. Very impressive run for them. Here at home, low end Advisory snow for the LSV is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Here is the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z NAM I think accumulating snow from the coastal makes it to the pinkish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z NAM It is so rare for Long Island to get 3 feet for quite a large swath of central. Looks like the 24" line is really close to Queens / western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Honestly would be nice for all the storms models took away if this trended another 100 miles west or so and gave us close to 4 to 6 inch's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Nice tick west on the 0Z RGEM for those keeping score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Nice tick west on the 0Z RGEM for those keeping score. Yes, it especially upped the ante for Lancaster county this run. Here is 0z & 18z RGEM to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 F me for bailing on Bar Harbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well looks like the 3k NAM is a good bit more aligned with the 12k in terms of delivering 30+ to a large portion of SNE now, so there’s that lol. Taunton has to be considering blizzard warnings for eastern Mass. I’d say some place in and around that NWS office or generally in between Boston metro and Cape Cod inland of the coast somewhere would be a great place for anyone wanting to do a snow chase. There’s going to be monster rates/ratios under any meso bands there. Main difference back our way is the models are starting to go back towards solidifying the initial snowfall breaking out across PA, and a couple like the RGEM are getting the back edge of the actual deform shield from the coastal low into the fringes of the Sus Valley. That was my original vision of how to make this system work for us or least the majority of us since most live the Sus Valley in this forum. Having a decent WAA wave of snow from the northern system phasing in and transitioning some right into the some of the deform when the coastal explodes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3z HRRR is continuing to juice up the front running snow tomorrow. MDT this run has 1.1 inches of snow by 4 pm tomorrow-this is 10-1 ratio, so Kuchera would be even better. Several more hours of light snow would follow before any possible enhancement from the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 That 0z Euro run that just dropped has to be one of the most insane runs the southern New England folks have ever seen. The low passes just a hair outside the benchmark and tucks right into the Gulf of Maine. And I’m sitting here just hoping tomorrow I get 1/42nd of what Boston has on that Kuchera map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Light snow currently in Marysville. Car tops already have a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The 6z NAM continues to increase snow amounts for the LSV, especially York & Lancaster. Most west of the river is front the front running preliminary system, but south & east of Harrisburg gets into the western edge of the coastal precip this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Here are the 6z NAM snow maps in Kuchera for the 3k & 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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