Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not for the far Southeast US.  Seems UK on board with the southern run as well. 

The Canadian seems like the “middle ground” solution right now that would produce a nice region wide Advisory event.

The GFS is trending the right way and the Euro/Ukie are missing to the south & east. 
I like where we stand right now.

 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

That’s a massive shift. Saw that on the Ukie as well. A cold but dry midweek looks very possible. Which will be good for canderson’s cat and Ahoff’s flight.

Personally I would not buy it yet (South) as the GFS has been consistent and still is as of now.  But cannot argue that it is a trend this AM.  It started days ago when we started getting into the cold sector of the storm.  It just has not stopped.  I think Canderson was worried about the 7th so he is in the clear it would seem. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is CTP’s current zone forecast for Harrisburg.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 39.

Tuesday Night

A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday

Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

I really really like seeing “snow likely” !!!

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Personally I would not buy it yet (South) as the GFS has been consistent and still is as of now.  But cannot argue that it is a trend this AM.  It started days ago when we started getting into the cold sector of the storm.  It just has not stopped.  I think Canderson was worried about the 7th so he is in the clear it would seem. 

Indeed, I almost forgot how many times I’ve been worried about a storm being rain and then it ultimately misses south. I think the last real storm of last winter did that (the one in late Feb following the storm that badly missed north).

With that being said, as you stated, the GFS still presents an interesting solution and has been extremely consistent on nearly the entire pattern for days.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts from the morning discussion:

 Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light to moderate precipitation
event with mean qpf between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A blocking
high over northern New England should help hold in low level cold air, so some wintry precip appears a good probability, especially over central/northern Pa. Some guidance tracks a weak surface low over western Pa, which could result in a wintry mix
(rain south), rather than snow.

 

[Bubbler86]

@TimB84, in the zone of extremes, check out these 12Z temps on the Euro.  No records here as the temps dip heading in that night but Low to Mid 60's at Sunrise.  Holy Crap.  That Mid West Blizzard is sucking up the warms.

 

 

 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@TimB84, in the zone of extremes, check out these 12Z temps on the Euro.  No records here as the temps dip heading in that night but Low to Mid 60's at Sunrise.  Holy Crap.  That Mid West Blizzard is sucking up the warms.

 

 

 

Maybe it can trend 500 miles SE too. 6z GFS has the front clear through by then.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Maybe it can trend 500 miles SE too.

The irony about the trending for our current situation is what you mention about it being cold next week.  EC limits the warmth via slightly stronger ridging to our North.  We got what we wanted...but not really.   Edit-Just model discussion, not a forecast or giving up. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The irony about the trending for our current situation is what you mention about it being cold next week.  EC limits the warmth via slightly stronger ridging to our North.  We got what we wanted...but not really. 

The coldinista in me would take 30s and dry over 50s-60s and rainy (and maybe even over 50s-60s and dry), and a colder solution does cut into any chance of a +8 December.

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just model discussion, not a forecast or giving up. 

Way too early to give up when some models still show a decent snowfall.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Way too early to give up when some models still show a decent snowfall.

I added it to avoid any confusion.  Too often, model discussion gets taken as forecast opinion. 

[Bubbler86]

Good map.  My take on the reason is circled below.  Could be wrong though.  Using the 543 line as an example to focus on, the Isobars now show a tighter look and stronger push from the north.  Less room for a tug and amplification...leading to the minoring out you mention.   It eventually "reforms" as it approaches the SE coast.  

 

[Bubbler86]

This NAM map is another good view of the issue.    We don't want a 1027 High in Wisconsin/Illinois heading S/E, do we?  It's going to be a bully 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

 

 

Plenty of time still . No giving up EVER 

San's hotdog, that is your MO.  A good one. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

This NAM map is another good view of the issue.    We don't want a 1027 High in Wisconsin heading S/E, do we?  It's going to be a bully 

 

I mean if this thing does end up sliding south, I’d rather it slide way south so the MA folks don’t steal all the snow.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I mean if this thing does end up sliding south, I’d rather it slide way south so the MA folks don’t steal all the snow.

On that Nam map, its already forming well off shore so the MA is mostly a miss as well. 

[Atomixwx]

29 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The coldinista in me would take 30s and dry over 50s-60s and rainy (and maybe even over 50s-60s and dry), and a colder solution does cut into any chance of a +8 December.

Here here

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This NAM map is another good view of the issue.    We don't want a 1027 High in Wisconsin/Illinois heading S/E, do we?  It's going to be a bully 

 

 

Thanks for posting the nam - I hadn’t looked at it yet. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, canderson said:

Thanks for posting the nam - I hadn’t looked at it yet. 

Is that sarcastic?  LOL.  

[Blizzard of 93]

@losetoa6 

I think a compromise of the Global ensembles is best at this point as CTP indicated.

12z runs coming up soon!

[paweather]

Let’s go 12z 

 

[Atomixwx]

38 minutes ago, canderson said:

Thanks for posting the man - I hadn’t looked at one yet. 

FIFY, fruit. 

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS Mean Snowfall through 7 Days, Central Penn. gets less fun compared to New York.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

6z GEFS Mean Snowfall through 7 Days, Central Penn. gets less fun compared to New York.

 

How does that compare to Oklahoma? 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How does that compare to Oklahoma? 

Almost nothing, only the Northern Part of Oklahoma gets even up to .25 inch.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z GFS took another step in the right direction with more frozen for CTP for Wednesday.

[Blizzard of 93]

The “blue” snow line has been steadily moving south over the last 4 runs.

[Blizzard of 93]

Either way, this 12z GFS solution is still way different than last night’s Euro & Ukie.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Let’s see what the Canadian says a little later.