Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 All this nonsense and butt hurt in OT got me off track from watching the 18Z GFS to see if the lesser amp'ed solution would show up and follow suit with other modeling. Looks so but only slightly....not a snow storm but colder and south compared to 12Z. Sort of like a slightly more amped version of the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Here is what CTP has currently for me for the Wednesday storm. Tuesday Night A chance of snow before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Here is this from CTP in their discussion today for Wednesday: Models continue to show moisture overrunning a retreating cold sector on Wednesday with rain or snow likely. There is the potential for accumulating snow especially over northern parts of CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I figure MAG, myself, and the others in the 80-99 corridor stand to do well Wednesday. My earlier comment about punting was basically my impression of you lot earlier in the week with the wild swings. My comments about Kennedy's fedora and Air Florida Flight 90 stand, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 No reason to punt anything. It might snow on Wednesday. Things then look very transient. We just will need timing to score an event. It might warm up for a bit after day 10, but phase 7 of the MJO says that we should return to a colder pattern thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The 12z Euro Op has this look at day 10. Warm up delayed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No reason to punt anything. It might snow on Wednesday. Things then look very transient. We just will need timing to score an event. It might warm up for a bit after day 10, but phase 7 of the MJO says that we should return to a colder pattern thereafter. I was just putting away my ski mask, snow shovel, and tire chains based on advise from the MA thread. Should I hold off? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was just putting away my ski mask. No. That's how you get Snowvid-19. The new variant of the contagion. It basically is Polio, AIDS, and radical Islam all wrapped up into one. I've seen it with my own eyes, and trust me: You don't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: No. That's how you get Snowvid-19. The new variant of the contagion. It basically is Polio, AIDS, and radical Islam all wrapped up into one. I've seen it with my own eyes, and trust me: You don't want it. Hopefully you are vaxxed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hopefully you are vaxxed! As a baby I swam in the Hudson river. I'm good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Jma looking decent @Jiwould be proud. First time that I’ve seen the JMA posted this year! Lol, now we are really tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I was just putting away my ski mask, snow shovel, and tire chains based on advise from the MA thread. Should I hold off? The Mid Atlantic thread is already unreadable and it’s only December 3rd! I feel bad for @psuhoffman ! Hopefully he posts here every now & then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: All we need now is for Williamsport to stop in and tell us it's going to miss south. lol Yes! That would be classic! Then we need to have @canderson declare that he bets MDT won’t get 1 inch of snow even if we have an Advisory for 2 to 4 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 7 hours ago, pasnownut said: Nothing like a southern slider and then 50 deg here waiting for the next cold front to wash rinse repeat..right. We saw this several times last year. We also last year had 2 storms that brought over 1 foot of snow to most of us. MDT also ended up with above normal snow with 36 inches. We had good periods and lots of waiting around periods. We had no snow in January until the last day of the month and no March snow. We almost never have wall to wall snow from November through March. We just need to hope that we have a few good periods between now and March so that we can look back fondly on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: You may have started a new theme for the season. 'At least were are throwing darts' to indicate something is on the map. Nut is posting, Blizz top 4, etc...winter is here! I need to hold onto my 3rd place ranking. I will take the bronze. No way will I catch you or @paweather I just need to keep @Itstrainingtime time off of the medal stand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 The 0z ICON is getting tonight’s runs off on the right foot for the LSV and our northern MD friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z ICON is getting tonight’s runs off on the right foot for the LSV and our northern MD friends. Good stuff. Meat of the system there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I need to hold onto my 3rd place ranking. I will take the bronze. No way will I catch you or @paweather I just need to keep @Itstrainingtime time off of the medal stand! I concede now. I won't even attempt to keep up with the volume of snow maps coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 That's not me, you guys. Just so we are clear. Edit: But I did give his nanny a jolly good ****ing a few years ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 CTP is ramping up their coverage of the Wednesday storm chance. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-051100- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely Monday afternoon and night in the wake of a strong cold front. A wintry mix or widespread light to moderate snowfall is possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night as low pressure moves northeast from the Southern Appalachians, followed by as vigorous upper level disturbance moving east from the Ohio River Valley. The greatest threat for several inches of snow is across the Northwest Mountains of Pennsylvania, while the best chance for significant mixed precipitation is across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP is ramping up their coverage of the Wednesday storm chance. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-051100- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 546 AM EST Sat Dec 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Gusty westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph are likely Monday afternoon and night in the wake of a strong cold front. A wintry mix or widespread light to moderate snowfall is possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night as low pressure moves northeast from the Southern Appalachians, followed by as vigorous upper level disturbance moving east from the Ohio River Valley. The greatest threat for several inches of snow is across the Northwest Mountains of Pennsylvania, while the best chance for significant mixed precipitation is across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state. Come on Blizz we need this one before the warmth! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Come on Blizz we need this one before the warmth! I’m already moving past the temporary warm up. My mindset is going to be to enjoy the snow or mixed event this week. Then I’m going to track the return of colder winter pattern towards the 3rd full week of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 40 on the dot this AM. Some surprising results form last night's models....more credence to a south miss but still lots of darts to go. FHS back in the house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 40 on the dot this AM. Some surprising results form last night's models....more credence to a south miss but still lots of darts to go. Good morning sir! My favorite dart was the 0z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 The 0z Canadian ensemble looked very nice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 The 6z GEFS had its best look yet for this Wednesday’s chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 40 on the dot this AM. Some surprising results form last night's models....more credence to a south miss but still lots of darts to go. FHS back in the house? Wait, did this thing more or less disappear from the Euro last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good morning sir! My favorite dart was the 0z Canadian. Good Morning, I saw that was our "best boy" this AM. I think the Icon precip shield is a bit underdone as well. That Upper Mid West High is bullying the system on the other models, including the Nam which seems prime to slide south. That is one big change from a few days ago. We were talking about a retreating higher over the North East vs. what now seems to be an issues with the SLP gaining latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Wait, did this thing more or less disappear from the Euro last night? Not for the far Southeast US. Seems UK on board with the southern run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Not for the far Southeast US. Seems UK on board with the southern run as well. That’s a massive shift. Saw that on the Ukie as well. A cold but dry midweek looks very possible. Which will be good for canderson’s cat and Ahoff’s flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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