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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Gfs is nicely improved.  It has a bit stronger SLP well  south of us on the central  NC /Va border by 2 mb compared to 0z ...so it consolidates precip a bit sooner . Gfs has shifted nicely since yesterday's 12z run when it was progressive and flat nothing lol. Decent run.:D

 

6z GFS is a very nice run for all of us.

It has a CTP wide 3 to 6 inch snow event on Friday.

 

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Millersville's take:

In the short term, I'm keeping a close eye on Thursday night/Friday as our best chance of receiving a meaningful, widespread snowfall. However, the disturbance of interest is still hundreds of miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, so taking a shot at predicting potential snowfall totals at this distance is a fool's errand! In fact, there's still a chance that we receive nothing more than a few flurries. The good news is that we likely won't have to deal with precipitation-type issues, so anything that does occur will be in the form of snow. At this point, my biggest concern is that the disturbance remains so weak and strung out that any meaningful snow stays to our south or doesn't even develop until it's "too late in the game" for the mid-Atlantic. What we do have going for us this time is that the ridge axis in the West is located very close to Boise, Idaho.. an ideal location for snowfall in southeastern PA. If you want several inches or more of snow, then you want the ridge axis to be stronger and more amplified than what's currently projected. In general, a more amplified ridge results in disturbances over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic intensifying more rapidly. These disturbances also tend to "dig" more, allowing them to draw Gulf- and Atlantic-moisture northward into the colder air. Even if this does occur on Thursday night and Friday morning, the system will be moving along so quickly that anything more than a light-to-moderate snowfall is highly unlikely. 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, that is definitely the safer resolution for us here.  Singular (or close to it) system that moves under us. 

Right...under us, but close enough that it gets us. If it digs too much and goes well south, there's nothing that will bring it back up until it's out over the Atlantic. I'd think a track across central VA would be ideal for the LSV at least. 

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17 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Nothing like wood heat on a cold morning. 

11 degrees here this morning.

weather app calling for 3-6” Thursday/Friday

Heated exclusively with wood for over a decade in a large log home with 3 wood stoves in the Montrose area. While I agree there’s nothing like wood heat on a cold morning and I do miss that, I don’t miss all the work of cutting, splitting, hauling, etc. - not to mention the dirt, chimney maintenance, etc. But I still get nostalgic when I walk outside and smell woodsmoke in the neighborhood.

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1 minute ago, kerplunk said:

Heated exclusively with wood for over a decade in a large log home with 3 wood stoves in the Montrose area. While I agree there’s nothing like wood heat on a cold morning and I do miss that, I don’t miss all the work of cutting, splitting, hauling, etc. - not to mention the dirt, chimney maintenance, etc. But I still get nostalgic when I walk outside and smell woodsmoke in the neighborhood.

The thing that would bother me most is making sure the heat is sufficient all night.  Having to get up to throw in a log would be a hassle. #firstworldproblems

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Thursday Night

Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. 

Friday

Snow likely before 8am, then a chance of snow showers between 8am and 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
 

CTP already throwing out numbers 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The thing that would bother me most is making sure the heat is sufficient all night.  Having to get up to throw in a log would be a hassle. #firstworldproblems

Had very efficient stoves and rarely had to do that. That said, we did once live in a place where a jar of water would freeeze if left on the floor overnight, and we’d heat up stones on the stove, wrap them in towels and put them in the bottom of the bed for the night. That and long underwear along with ski hats made it downright cozy. Haha.

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