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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:The primary never really weakens at all verbatim.  I'm not 100% sure why its elongating but I'm guessing the baroclinic  zone offshore has something to with it " searching"  for a new low center or maby this fits the definition of a possible hybrid . Not sure .

Nailed it.
Storms always are looking for energy. This one should run the baroclinic zone to the shore (think of the ocean as it’s next food source if you will). Hope that analogy helps. 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I thought this whole time we were discussing the 18z Euro Op which ends at 90 hours?

The I had commented that the eps panel you posted, with the slug of precip up into western PA, had a look similar to what happened this AM (I said again but did not clarify in the first post). 

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Here is CTP’s take tonight in their discussion.

Considerable spread remains for late week solutions. Medium
range models depict a surface low lifting up to the mid Atlantic
coast late Thursday into Friday in response to a deepening
upstream trough over the midwest. Phasing and timing differences
abound, however, still making this a low confidence scenario at
this time. A fair amount of medium range guidance (especially
ECMWF based) would support a light to moderate snowfall over
portions of central PA. Lack of blocking high makes a heavy
snowfall on the unlikely side, but we`ll continue to monitor
through midweek.

 

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