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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 9-11 Lake Effect Snow Event


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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's more people in Redfield with the last name Yerdon (or some spelling version of it) than there are teeth.

After looking at models I think the band will be in our area around 8 PM. At the rate it will be moving south I don’t expect it to be over us more than an hour. Plus once it falls off the lake it will fall apart quickly. I don’t see us getting the 6 inches you’re forecasting. I’m thinking 1-2 inches max. 

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3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

After looking at models I think the band will be in our area around 8 PM. At the rate it will be moving south I don’t expect it to be over us more than an hour. Plus once it falls off the lake it will fall apart quickly. I don’t see us getting the 6 inches you’re forecasting. I’m thinking 1-2 inches max. 

Yikes, I hope it's not that low. I'm thinking 2 to 4 inches with the band, and then a couple more with multi-bands. If those bands don't work out for many, then it will be the low end I mentioned of 3 to 4 inches.

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41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

As I've said for days, 6 to 10 inches. I think our minimum will be about 3 or 4 inches. Sometimes the snowband can get hung up a bit (not for long with that Arctic front rushing in today) and then we can get several more inches if there are some intense multi-bands. If those things all fall in place, over 6 inches is very possible. If the front just rushes through and we get scattered snow showers behind it, that 3 to 4 inches would probably be it. I think we'll get more than the 3 to 4 inches, especially with the fluff factor. Syrmax has a good call of about 6 inches.

SYR-3”

Roc-1.5”

Caz-4”

Skaneatles-4”

Just too dry following the fropa 

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1 minute ago, CoolMikeWx said:

I feel like both of these adjusted a bit north? The hill didn't see that much expected accum in previous runs?

Good for me, bad for you I supposed will try to send some your way :D

I'm looking at the leftovers for us N Cuse guys. I totally ignored the big show up on the Tug. lol

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6 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

I feel like both of these adjusted a bit north? The hill didn't see that much expected accum in previous runs?

Good for me, bad for you I supposed will try to send some your way :D

Yeah they both did, here's a couple of overnight runs of the Hrrr

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-10T154154.578.png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-10T154220.703.png

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8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Nws added in thunder for south shore?

Tonight
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. 

I did that, and then moved away to be closer to family.  I don’t regret that today.  Nope, not at all. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. 

Our bands are the worst. Of the 20 winters I’ve lived on the south shore we’ve had like 2 good years for lake effect. Pure lake effect that is. Which is why I live and die on that synoptic hill. 

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5 minutes ago, vortmax said:
Tonight
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Not sure i buy it. Could definitely see 2 to 4. 

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7 minutes ago, vortmax said:
Tonight
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

I have no idea what they are looking at for those accumulations. 

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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Just north of me now, can see clearing to the south, light snow overhead.. Band should be back in business around 6-7pm for the finale..

WUNIDS_map - 2022-01-10T160653.492.gif

 And don't be surprised if the heaviest snow will be on the northern edge of the band when it does move through you. A lot of times the vertical circulation structure as it's getting shoved by a front, will tilt it such a way that the heaviest snow will fall in the northern part of the band.

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. I'd rather get 1-2 big boy events than 10-12 small events. 

I would have headed up today but been in work conferences all day.

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