CNY_WX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: There's more people in Redfield with the last name Yerdon (or some spelling version of it) than there are teeth. After looking at models I think the band will be in our area around 8 PM. At the rate it will be moving south I don’t expect it to be over us more than an hour. Plus once it falls off the lake it will fall apart quickly. I don’t see us getting the 6 inches you’re forecasting. I’m thinking 1-2 inches max. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: After looking at models I think the band will be in our area around 8 PM. At the rate it will be moving south I don’t expect it to be over us more than an hour. Plus once it falls off the lake it will fall apart quickly. I don’t see us getting the 6 inches you’re forecasting. I’m thinking 1-2 inches max. Yikes, I hope it's not that low. I'm thinking 2 to 4 inches with the band, and then a couple more with multi-bands. If those bands don't work out for many, then it will be the low end I mentioned of 3 to 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Check out that Mexico Bay effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 HRRR stands for HoRRRible model, but we can hope... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Any reports of thunder yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I feel like both of these adjusted a bit north? The hill didn't see that much expected accum in previous runs? Good for me, bad for you I supposed will try to send some your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: As I've said for days, 6 to 10 inches. I think our minimum will be about 3 or 4 inches. Sometimes the snowband can get hung up a bit (not for long with that Arctic front rushing in today) and then we can get several more inches if there are some intense multi-bands. If those things all fall in place, over 6 inches is very possible. If the front just rushes through and we get scattered snow showers behind it, that 3 to 4 inches would probably be it. I think we'll get more than the 3 to 4 inches, especially with the fluff factor. Syrmax has a good call of about 6 inches. SYR-3” Roc-1.5” Caz-4” Skaneatles-4” Just too dry following the fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, CoolMikeWx said: I feel like both of these adjusted a bit north? The hill didn't see that much expected accum in previous runs? Good for me, bad for you I supposed will try to send some your way I'm looking at the leftovers for us N Cuse guys. I totally ignored the big show up on the Tug. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: SYR-3” Roc-1.5” Caz-4” Skaneatles-4” Just too dry following the fropa That seems to be the theme with EVERY cold front this season. Only moisture is when the temp is above freezing...especially in the 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: I feel like both of these adjusted a bit north? The hill didn't see that much expected accum in previous runs? Good for me, bad for you I supposed will try to send some your way Yeah they both did, here's a couple of overnight runs of the Hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Meanwhile 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I think somebody mentioned the other day (wolfie?) that a combo of the NAM and Rgem is the best for lake effect? Good call again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nws added in thunder for south shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Its so beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Somewhere up there is gonna end up with 3-4' of white gold. Carol Yerdon has gotta be getting hammered. Textbook perfect band right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. I'd rather get 1-2 big boy events than 10-12 small events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nws added in thunder for south shore? Tonight Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. I did that, and then moved away to be closer to family. I don’t regret that today. Nope, not at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Meanwhile We know with RGEM you have to cut QPF by around 70%. At least it hits locations good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. Our bands are the worst. Of the 20 winters I’ve lived on the south shore we’ve had like 2 good years for lake effect. Pure lake effect that is. Which is why I live and die on that synoptic hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, winter_rules said: I did that, and then moved away to be closer to family. I don’t regret that today. Nope, not at all. I mean if I lived in Syracuse I would be in the middle of that thing right now after work. How far of a drive is it like 20-30 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Dave move to Youngstown so you can complain about lake snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Somewhere up there is gonna end up with 3-4' of white gold. Carol Yerdon has gotta be getting hammered. Textbook perfect band right now. Carol only has 11” as of 15 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We know with RGEM you have to cut QPF by around 70%. At least it hits locations good. Yeah it looks like that but as the we get closer some of that precipitation has already fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: Tonight Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Not sure i buy it. Could definitely see 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 BGM's got my back...matches closely... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Just north of me now, can see clearing to the south, light snow overhead.. Band should be back in business around 6-7pm for the finale.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Tonight Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2am. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. I have no idea what they are looking at for those accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just north of me now, can see clearing to the south, light snow overhead.. Band should be back in business around 6-7pm for the finale.. And don't be surprised if the heaviest snow will be on the northern edge of the band when it does move through you. A lot of times the vertical circulation structure as it's getting shoved by a front, will tilt it such a way that the heaviest snow will fall in the northern part of the band. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. I'd rather get 1-2 big boy events than 10-12 small events. I would have headed up today but been in work conferences all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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