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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event


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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Expecting between 6-10” is my guess as I’m probably just a mile or two north of the heaviest snows for this one. West Seneca, Cheektowaga, Lancaster, South Buffalo  and Depew Jackpot this one IMO. 

This doesn’t surprise me, though I am disappointed. A heavy band with  a long downtown to northtowns residence requires multiple parameters to align almost perfectly. That set of parameters seems to have had a return interval of about 10 years until the early 2000s, but for whatever reason, the odds against them seem to have gotten much worse. If any parameter is off, we see outcomes ranging from no band at all to a transient band with a short residence in most of the city to a band that reverts to a more WSW or W alignment. 
 

The tolerances are so fine that as soon as any single credible model loses a 235/240 flow, the chances of a downtown to northtowns band drops to basically zero. So this is no surprise — in reality we lost this one days ago.

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

1 weenie, 2 weenie, 3 weenie, 4, 5 weenie, 6 weenie, 7 weenie or?

 On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground  Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall.   I still believe there will be  A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+.

 Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug.

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24 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground  Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall.   I still believe there will be  A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+.

 Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug.

I'll take my 2-4" of downsloping dandy while 10 miles west gets 1-2'

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38 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 On this board at least, I would default to Delta... As he probably knows more of the intricacies of lake effect snow off Erie... For what it's worth, my opinion is that metro Buffalo is ground  Zero.... Within 10 miles either side of of the metro in play for the heaviest snow fall.   I still believe there will be  A 20 mile swath of 12 to 18" with some lollipops of 2'+.

 Off Ontario this looks to be between Watertown and Adams... I'd expect the same amounts in that area with maybe 24" somewhere and the central/northern Tug.

Agreed. My call yesterday texting Devin was 22" max 2-3 miles south of airport.

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For all you snow depth weenies whatever does fall looks to be on the ground for several weeks. The warm up Sunday looks quite muted now. We've had the grass covered here since Saturday. Still have high hopes for a great January for all.

Well, the lakes better start providing...because the bloody synoptic pattern sure isn't. 

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1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

My call, from north to south:

* My house (Snyder, just west of Williamsville): <1"

* BUF Airport: 4"

* Lancaster/Depew: 12"

* Ebenezer (West Seneca): 18"

* Orchard Park: 8"

* Hamburg: 6"

 

Too low for the airport. Foot at KBUF 8” in Williamsville 3-6 for west Amherst/Snyder and I sgeee with the rest

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9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

12z runs locked into a very nice agreement!  The original call from KBUF still looking spot on.  Might not be our double whoppers with cheese meal but I'm still down!  Let's get this show on the road!  

010522.12zruns.png

Most of those included all of metro Buffalo north-side and south side. Looks good ATM

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While I NEVER feel comfortable about LES, seeing all 6 models pretty much lockstep right now does make me a bit more optimistic. And looking at the snowfall forecast map from the NWS the biggest difference is the stripes of snow north of Buffalo have widened by a few miles. The 8-12” now solidly gets near the 990 and the 4-8 gets all the way to Tonawanda by the 290. This is different from yesterday when those areas were more in the 2-4 category, and the 8-12” area was a cutoff right near my location. 

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feeling really optimistic after looking at Michigan, we will have a stronger band then they do and thats 1"+ per hour already.

 

WUNIDS_map?num=10&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy

Tempted to try and intercept the front and squall line when it comes through near sunset.  Looks like after that we don’t see anything organizing LES until 10pm or even later… 

32C19089-CFB3-4883-9B13-45A5E270DCAE.jpeg

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