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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event


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Watches just issued. 

Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park,
and Springville
115 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 9 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in considerable
  blowing and drifting snow.

First call map through 7 am Thursday

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

12Z guidance looks like winds start SW and transition to a more WSW direction for majority of the event. 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_66.png

 

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30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Figures my covid isolation period ends Wednesday night so back to work Thursday morning.  No chasing for me on this one.

My sons soccer team has been vivid ravaged, we were supposed to be in Ohio yesterday for a couple games and we didn’t go for other reasons, but learned this morning 5 of the 15 that went have tested positive. Good  thing we missed it.

As for this event upcoming I think it will move around enough to make most in our WNY forum happy. 

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Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely before 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Watches just issued. 

Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park,
and Springville
115 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 9 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in considerable
  blowing and drifting snow.

First call map through 7 am Thursday

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

12Z guidance looks like winds start SW and transition to a more WSW direction for majority of the event. 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_66.png

 

By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off.

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely before 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

A little different on my point n click…heavy snow after 7pm new precipitation 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch! Thursday heavy snow until noon. 
if that were to come to fruition then that’s a solid 15 hours over the metro nearby northtowns…that would make my winter

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8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off.

Possible still too far out, wind direction many times is a nowcast event. 

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

A little different on my point n click…heavy snow after 7pm new precipitation 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch! Thursday heavy snow until noon. 
if that were to come to fruition then that’s a solid 15 hours over the metro nearby northtowns…that would make my winter

This is where KBUF expects the band to start initially. 

PoP126_buf.png

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Possible still too far out, wind direction many times is a nowcast event. 

 

10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

By that map alone I am leery. Look over lower Michigan and notice the winds over the southern tip of Lake Michigan out of the WSW and the northern part NNW…that doesn’t line up that way usually. Rotation alone would have a more WNW wind over southern Lake Michigan. Add in if the winds were WSW that far west our wind field would be closer to a true SW maybe even A SSW orientation. That looks off.

Think there may be a subtle trough over michigan

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28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@Thinksnow18 waiting for KBUF updated forecast discussion

F5 Refresh GIF - F5 Refresh Reload - Discover & Share GIFs

Lmao just read it…if correct I’ll sleep on Friday morning…reads 240 vector for the MAJORITY of the event!!! It gets even better…they’re expecting 20-1 ratios…combined with up to 40 mph gusts??? I can’t go there yet but some areas the B word might get thrown around…

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Winter storm watches issued for potentially significant lake
snows Wed night and Thu...

Deep upper low aloft gradually opens up as it lifts across southern
Quebec. At the sfc, 995mb sfc low over Upper Great Lakes slowly
weakens while reaching Ottawa Valley on Wednesday night before
exiting to the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. Wednesday starts off
quiet but then primary cold front arrives mid to late aftn. Expect
swath of rain/snow quickly switching to snow as H85 temps drop off
to less than -8c by late aftn. Once the front goes by, much colder
air, down to -14c at H85 sweeps across Lake Erie and later in the
evening across Lake Ontario. Water temps on both lakes sitting
around 40F/4c so there will be more than ample over-water
instability for a lake response into Thu.

Even as main sfc low is well to the east by Thu, cold air pouring
across the wide open lakes leads to lake induced troughing
persisting through most of Thursday over the lower Great Lakes.
Result of the low then the lake induced trough is a persistent SW
240 flow Wed evening through most of Thu. Convergent and well-
aligned sw flow will support plumes of lake effect off both
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. BUFKIT profiles continue to show
inversions 6- 8kft which is certainly not at the top end of
significant lake effect events, but majority of DGZ will be
within the lake convective layer so SLRs will be higher, likely
reaching toward 20:1. This combined with more reasonable and
superior performing Canadian model QPF results in several inches
of lake effect maximizing Wed night through Thu morning off
both Lake Erie (Metro Buffalo toward Southtowns) and Lake
Ontario (northern portion of Jefferson and Lewis counties).
During this time snowfall rates over an inch per hour are
likely.

One other thing to note, it still looks quite windy with gusts up to
40 mph, especially NE of the lakes through Wed night before
diminishing on Thu. Winds this strong will result in considerable
blowing and drifting snow. Though there are signals that beyond Wed
night, primary plume of snow off both lakes will waver slightly,
enough snow accumulation and impact from blowing snow to hoist
winter storm watches northeast of both lakes. Watches begin on Wed
evening (except midnight east of Lake Ontario) and go through early
Thu evening. This is for the core of where biggest impact will be.
Eventually more headlines (mainly advisories) will be needed on the
edge of where the watch headlines are at present.

Otherwise, Wed look for temps to peak in the upper 30s to low 40s
then rapidly fall off Wed evening. Temps will then be found in the
20s by sunrise Thursday and not change much at all through the day.

Later Thu into Thu night there are still differences on how far west
low pressure developing over the southeast CONUS will track. Though
the heaviest portion of that system likely stays toward Mid Atlantic
should be enough forcing/lift and moisture wrapping back into the
colder air to result in some light snow, with lake enhanced snow
possible east of the lakes. Increased pops to categorical for all
areas to cover it at this time.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will likely continue east of the lakes Friday as
seasonably cold air continues to flow across the lower Great Lakes.
Additional accumulations will likely be tacked on during this time.

There is some uncertainty in how long the broad troughing lingers
over the Great Lakes, which will affect not only the persistence of
lake effect chances as we move into the weekend, but also how long
the cold air hangs out over the region, and how quickly ridging
returns to the area.
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34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lmao just read it…if correct I’ll sleep on Friday morning…reads 240 vector for the MAJORITY of the event!!! It gets even better…they’re expecting 20-1 ratios…combined with up to 40 mph gusts??? I can’t go there yet but some areas the B word might get thrown around…

 

CCFC9B94-24CE-42D8-9173-3AF2A5EA0341.gif

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

High winds and strong LES bands don't really occur very often. Something to keep in mind, especially weds night and overnight thursday when winds are strongest. 

These don’t seem crazy strong through like some previous storms.  They are currently advertising 40mph gusts.  Nov 2014 part one we had winds gusting to 40mph most of the storm being on the edge of the band.  But still something to watch. 

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Well for here it comes down to the synoptic event..GFS,icon and UK bring a solid band south Thursday night into Friday but the Euro and Canadian bring in some weak sauce synoptic snow, messing up the flow lol Followed by some weak NW lake effect..

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4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

What is that band 2 miles wide. Lol. Nam only has it hangin out in buffalo for about 6 hours.

Screenshot_20220103-155709_Samsung Internet.jpg

It also has it connecting the Lake Ontario band…winds won’t nearly be that strong. The NWS also says it’s leaning more heavily in the CMC at this juncture.

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's only through 7 pm too. :mapsnow:

WIVb did a complete 180…the band never leaves the metro…wobbles a bit south on Thursday afternoon…so now that it mentioned to me earlier that the local stations do not  have in house models whose due they emulate?

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