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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Obviously this is before the GFS 6z..

On Friday morning there will be a few separate pieces spread out
over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a
potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough
and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking
mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies
tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico
with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the
Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an
area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley
ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the
moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the
southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast
along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase
over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to
rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing
out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee
Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is
suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance
is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the
GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over
ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs.
snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For
now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of
a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late
Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to
this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the
different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause
significant changes to the forecast.

This is good news. Say what you want, these guys are good. 

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19 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

If only this storm was a touch stronger or still deepening and this would have been a very significant event. So close!  Still a great day for a wind lover. 

Yes, another 5-10mb and this would've rivaled March 2017.

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Elmwood Cam looks to show decent snowfall coming down in Buffalo right now.

Quite the front across New York state today! Dansville went from 30s in the early afternoon to 60s a few hours later, and now down to 46 with rain. Surprisingly, here in Syracuse we've stayed in the Upper 30s all day. Looks like the front got caught up in the higher elevations in the southern end of Onondaga county, as it's 40 here right now and in the mid 50s down in the Tully area on the southern end of the county. Sometimes that north wind can trap the cold air here in the Lake Plain.

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